Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET
Resolved Up. 67% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
18
Up 67%
4 arb excluded
$5.4K
$61.92
Smart Money Signal
12 of 18 top traders (67%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Upavg 72¢ | $883.26 | $1.1K | +$254.24 | 51% 2869-2774 (5643) |
HO hoodquant | Upavg 98.7¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | +$13.48 | 98% 3242-69 (3311) |
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Upavg 50.6¢ | $510.18 | $494.45 | -$0.98 | 55% 3113-2587 (5700) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50.6¢ | $250.33 | $494.45 | +$249.35 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 49.4¢ | $245.46 | — | -$250.32 | |
AS aswfadq1555 | Upavg 76.8¢ | $422.3 | $460 | +$37.7 | 50% 448-445 (893) |
ST stepaheadARB<$100 | Upavg 73.9¢ | $356.28 | $361.41 | +$5.13 | 55% 4277-3516 (7793) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 73.9¢ | $266.93 | $361.41 | +$94.48 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 29.3¢ | $89.35 | — | -$89.35 | |
CR CrouchPredictions | Upavg 80.8¢ | $325.6 | $401.11 | +$75.51 | 46% 902-1042 (1944) |
 Polkadot-FrogARB<$100 | Upavg 74.3¢ | $446.66 | $280 | +$24 | 51% 1978-1872 (3850) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 74.3¢ | $208.14 | $280 | +$37.1 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 21¢ | $59.43 | — | -$13.1 | |
BO bosonaARB<$100 | Upavg 82¢ | $215 | $250 | +$35 | 51% 4490-4374 (8864) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 82¢ | $205 | $250 | +$45 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 4¢ | $10 | — | -$10 | |
 gabigol | Upavg 85.3¢ | $225.45 | $264.35 | +$38.9 | 48% 234-252 (486) |
AL almach | Upavg 83¢ | $189.17 | $227.91 | +$38.74 | 50% 1247-1249 (2496) |
HC HcrystallashCTR | Downavg 16.8¢ | $326.01 | — | -$233.73 | 58% 4903-3576 (8479) |
MO mo-money | Upavg 78¢ | $132.05 | $169.34 | +$37.29 | 49% 1236-1272 (2508) |
FL flippingsharks | Upavg 82.8¢ | $121.58 | $146.79 | +$25.21 | 38% 570-919 (1489) |
AL Alpharo28<$100 | Upavg 78.6¢ | $80.74 | $88.11 | +$8.58 | 59% 178-126 (304) |
PE peepeepoopoo24<$100 | Upavg 78¢ | $52.6 | $60 | +$7.4 | 49% 837-862 (1699) |
AS asdcaxz<$100 | Upavg 91¢ | $13.38 | $9.21 | -$4.17 | 50% 4163-4232 (8395) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Upavg 78.9¢ | $18.93 | $24 | +$5.07 | 52% 2416-2220 (4636) |
BL blue.birdsCTR<$100 | Downavg 20.7¢ | $7.05 | — | -$7.05 | 52% 4799-4479 (9278) |
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100 | Downavg 18¢ | $1.08 | — | -$1.08 | 41% 1393-1983 (3376) |
AA aaa221CTR<$100 | Downavg 49¢ | $1.78 | — | -$1.78 | 60% 3365-2262 (5627) |
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR | Downavg 23.6¢ | $200.14 | — | -$200.14 | 58% 3492-2495 (5987) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100 | Downavg 49.6¢ | $32.25 | — | -$32.25 | 47% 1939-2183 (4122) |
Invested
$883.26
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$254.24
Record
51%
2869-2774 (5643)
Invested
$1,052.52
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$13.48
Record
98%
3242-69 (3311)
Invested
$510.18
Value
$494.45
PnL
-$0.98
Record
55%
3113-2587 (5700)
Both legs:
Invested
$422.3
Value
$460
PnL
+$37.7
Record
50%
448-445 (893)
Invested
$356.28
Value
$361.41
PnL
+$5.13
Record
55%
4277-3516 (7793)
Both legs:
Invested
$325.6
Value
$401.11
PnL
+$75.51
Record
46%
902-1042 (1944)
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100Invested
$446.66
Value
$280
PnL
+$24
Record
51%
1978-1872 (3850)
Both legs:
Invested
$215
Value
$250
PnL
+$35
Record
51%
4490-4374 (8864)
Both legs:
gabigolInvested
$225.45
Value
$264.35
PnL
+$38.9
Record
48%
234-252 (486)
Invested
$189.17
Value
$227.91
PnL
+$38.74
Record
50%
1247-1249 (2496)
Invested
$326.01
Value
—
PnL
-$233.73
Record
58%
4903-3576 (8479)
Invested
$132.05
Value
$169.34
PnL
+$37.29
Record
49%
1236-1272 (2508)
Invested
$121.58
Value
$146.79
PnL
+$25.21
Record
38%
570-919 (1489)
Invested
$80.74
Value
$88.11
PnL
+$8.58
Record
59%
178-126 (304)
Invested
$52.6
Value
$60
PnL
+$7.4
Record
49%
837-862 (1699)
Invested
$13.38
Value
$9.21
PnL
-$4.17
Record
50%
4163-4232 (8395)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$18.93
Value
$24
PnL
+$5.07
Record
52%
2416-2220 (4636)
Invested
$7.05
Value
—
PnL
-$7.05
Record
52%
4799-4479 (9278)
Invested
$1.08
Value
—
PnL
-$1.08
Record
41%
1393-1983 (3376)
Invested
$1.78
Value
—
PnL
-$1.78
Record
60%
3365-2262 (5627)
Invested
$200.14
Value
—
PnL
-$200.14
Record
58%
3492-2495 (5987)
Invested
$32.25
Value
—
PnL
-$32.25
Record
47%
1939-2183 (4122)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
Up — $1.1K
hoodquant
Up — $1.1K
ByteBadger92
ARBArbitrage — excluded
aswfadq1555
Up — $460
stepahead
ARBArbitrage — excluded
CrouchPredictions
Up — $401.11
Polkadot-Frog
ARBArbitrage — excluded
bosona
ARBArbitrage — excluded
gabigol
Up — $264.35
almach
Up — $227.91