Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET
22 of 28 top Polymarket traders hold Down (79%) · Down at 100¢ · $9K held · ended Nov 14
⚖️
Neutral
Down
28
Down 79%
$8.9K
-$119.06
82.5¢ → 100¢
+21% since entry · 22 traders
Research grade
NeutralDown at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
22 of 28 top traders (79%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO hoodquant | Downavg 96.5¢ | $1.8K | $1.8K | +$63.64 | 98% 3154-65 (3219) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Downavg 87¢ | $1.3K | $1.0K | -$298.89 | 51% 2824-2718 (5542) |
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710 | Downavg 96.4¢ | $879.59 | $805.49 | -$59.5 | 41% 1354-1943 (3297) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Downavg 71.7¢ | $764.24 | $771.14 | +$6.9 | 46% 889-1025 (1914) |
MO mo-money | Downavg 87.3¢ | $657.31 | $746.15 | +$88.84 | 49% 1214-1249 (2463) |
AL almach | Downavg 91.2¢ | $565.4 | $554.9 | -$10.5 | 50% 1226-1225 (2451) |
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e | Downavg 42.2¢ | $233.98 | $504.37 | +$296.77 | 59% 3430-2414 (5844) |
BY ByteBadger92 | Downavg 50¢ | $501.7 | $500 | -$0.5 | 55% 3061-2517 (5578) |
BO bosona | Downavg 95.1¢ | $430.59 | $349.5 | +$8.63 | 51% 4466-4351 (8817) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Downavg 76.2¢ | $423.69 | $315.45 | -$0.55 | 51% 1947-1837 (3784) |
ST stepahead | Downavg 64.1¢ | $292.15 | $299.2 | +$7.05 | 55% 4261-3501 (7762) |
HC Hcrystallash | Downavg 65.3¢ | $278.99 | $268.85 | -$10.15 | 58% 4886-3565 (8451) |
AS aswfadq1555 | Downavg 91.5¢ | $295.95 | $262.39 | -$33.56 | 50% 438-439 (877) |
 gabigol | Downavg 93.7¢ | $191.9 | $195.66 | +$3.76 | 48% 231-247 (478) |
PE peepeepoopoo24 | Downavg 85.6¢ | $188.99 | $189.79 | +$0.8 | 49% 831-856 (1687) |
AS asdcaxz<$100 | Downavg 88¢ | $92.5 | $96.75 | +$4.25 | 50% 4118-4199 (8317) |
AL Alpharo28CTR<$100 | Upavg 53.1¢ | $77.46 | $43.15 | -$34.31 | 58% 162-115 (277) |
BL blue.birds<$100 | Downavg 89¢ | $37.8 | $28.95 | -$8.85 | 52% 4757-4448 (9205) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100 | Downavg 34¢ | $16.95 | $23.68 | +$6.73 | 47% 1865-2092 (3957) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Downavg 72.1¢ | $18.74 | $23.53 | +$4.79 | 52% 2398-2181 (4579) |
PB PBot-6CTR<$100 | Upavg 49¢ | $19.6 | $20.2 | +$0.6 | 50% 678-686 (1364) |
SU suntori<$100 | Downavg 44.4¢ | $11.2 | $11.74 | +$0.54 | 45% 2387-2862 (5249) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100 | Upavg 56¢ | $8.65 | $8.42 | -$0.23 | 50% 1678-1678 (3356) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100 | Downavg 30¢ | $7.5 | $7.38 | -$0.13 | 47% 1905-2153 (4058) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 58¢ | $3.15 | $3.18 | +$0.03 | 60% 3320-2225 (5545) |
Invested
$1,760.44
Value
$1.8K
PnL
+$63.64
Record
98%
3154-65 (3219)
Invested
$1,334.66
Value
$1.0K
PnL
-$298.89
Record
51%
2824-2718 (5542)
Invested
$879.59
Value
$805.49
PnL
-$59.5
Record
41%
1354-1943 (3297)
Invested
$764.24
Value
$771.14
PnL
+$6.9
Record
46%
889-1025 (1914)
Invested
$657.31
Value
$746.15
PnL
+$88.84
Record
49%
1214-1249 (2463)
Invested
$565.4
Value
$554.9
PnL
-$10.5
Record
50%
1226-1225 (2451)
Invested
$233.98
Value
$504.37
PnL
+$296.77
Record
59%
3430-2414 (5844)
Invested
$501.7
Value
$500
PnL
-$0.5
Record
55%
3061-2517 (5578)
Invested
$430.59
Value
$349.5
PnL
+$8.63
Record
51%
4466-4351 (8817)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$423.69
Value
$315.45
PnL
-$0.55
Record
51%
1947-1837 (3784)
Invested
$292.15
Value
$299.2
PnL
+$7.05
Record
55%
4261-3501 (7762)
Invested
$278.99
Value
$268.85
PnL
-$10.15
Record
58%
4886-3565 (8451)
Invested
$295.95
Value
$262.39
PnL
-$33.56
Record
50%
438-439 (877)
gabigolInvested
$191.9
Value
$195.66
PnL
+$3.76
Record
48%
231-247 (478)
Invested
$188.99
Value
$189.79
PnL
+$0.8
Record
49%
831-856 (1687)
Invested
$92.5
Value
$96.75
PnL
+$4.25
Record
50%
4118-4199 (8317)
Invested
$77.46
Value
$43.15
PnL
-$34.31
Record
58%
162-115 (277)
Invested
$37.8
Value
$28.95
PnL
-$8.85
Record
52%
4757-4448 (9205)
Invested
$16.95
Value
$23.68
PnL
+$6.73
Record
47%
1865-2092 (3957)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$18.74
Value
$23.53
PnL
+$4.79
Record
52%
2398-2181 (4579)
Invested
$19.6
Value
$20.2
PnL
+$0.6
Record
50%
678-686 (1364)
Invested
$11.2
Value
$11.74
PnL
+$0.54
Record
45%
2387-2862 (5249)
Invested
$8.65
Value
$8.42
PnL
-$0.23
Record
50%
1678-1678 (3356)
Invested
$7.5
Value
$7.38
PnL
-$0.13
Record
47%
1905-2153 (4058)
Invested
$3.15
Value
$3.18
PnL
+$0.03
Record
60%
3320-2225 (5545)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
hoodquant
Down — $1.8K
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
Down — $1.0K
0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710
Down — $805.49
CrouchPredictions
Down — $771.14
mo-money
Down — $746.15
almach
Down — $554.9
0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e
Down — $504.37
ByteBadger92
Down — $500
bosona
Down — $349.5
Polkadot-Frog
Down — $315.45