Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 13, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET
Resolved Down. 56% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
36
Down 56%
3 arb excluded
$6.1K
$-2.4K
Smart Money Signal
20 of 36 top traders (56%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed16 hold an outcome priced under 50%20 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AS aswfadq1555CTR | Upavg 63¢ | $2.0K | — | $-2.0K | 50% 436-435 (871) |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 98.4¢ | $1.5K | $1.6K | +$24.33 | 98% 3131-65 (3196) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR | Upavg 73.5¢ | $1.7K | — | $-1.7K | 51% 2812-2714 (5526) |
HC Hcrystallash | Downavg 48.7¢ | $891.74 | $1.2K | +$307.23 | 58% 4878-3558 (8436) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Downavg 51.3¢ | $357.66 | $563.9 | +$214.9 | 46% 880-1020 (1900) |
BO bosona | Downavg 26.3¢ | $162.59 | $526 | +$363.41 | 51% 4461-4339 (8800) |
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Upavg 49.6¢ | $516.93 | $490 | -$2.4 | 55% 3034-2491 (5525) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 49.8¢ | $244.14 | $490 | +$248.2 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 49.6¢ | $251.99 | — | -$250.6 | |
AL almach | Downavg 36.5¢ | $195.87 | $478.85 | +$282.99 | 50% 1219-1216 (2435) |
ST stepaheadCTR | Upavg 40.2¢ | $327.39 | — | -$327.39 | 55% 4254-3494 (7748) |
LI Little-big | Downavg 46.4¢ | $92.75 | $200 | +$107.25 | 51% 849-816 (1665) |
 Polkadot-FrogCTR | Upavg 49.8¢ | $470.8 | — | -$177.84 | 51% 1930-1826 (3756) |
 MayorMamdani | Downavg 55.4¢ | $104.99 | $189.52 | +$84.53 | 52% 2385-2166 (4551) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR | Upavg 52.8¢ | $130.16 | — | -$130.16 | 50% 1672-1674 (3346) |
 G-Penis-MonsterCTR | Upavg 71¢ | $111.81 | — | -$111.81 | 44% 1813-2341 (4154) |
PE peepeepoopoo24ARB<$100 | Upavg 59.4¢ | $76.33 | $101.04 | +$24.71 | 49% 827-855 (1682) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 34.1¢ | $34.45 | $101.04 | +$66.59 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 59.4¢ | $41.88 | — | -$41.88 | |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530ARB<$100 | Downavg 42.8¢ | $105.7 | $202.22 | +$96.52 | 47% 1854-2076 (3930) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 42.8¢ | $86.5 | $202.22 | +$115.72 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 64¢ | $19.2 | — | -$19.2 | |
AS asdcaxzCTR<$100 | Upavg 21¢ | $42.9 | — | -$24.62 | 49% 4099-4182 (8281) |
FL flippingsharks<$100 | Downavg 28.8¢ | $20.37 | $69 | +$48.63 | 39% 559-877 (1436) |
BL blue.birdsCTR<$100 | Upavg 39¢ | $39.57 | — | -$39.57 | 52% 4742-4430 (9172) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Downavg 81.7¢ | $54.63 | $61.56 | +$7.7 | 50% 2202-2243 (4445) |
 BoneOhio | Downavg 39.8¢ | $79.5 | $200 | +$120.5 | 71% 1422-567 (1989) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 56.3¢ | $54.15 | $53.01 | +$10.74 | 67% 3145-1560 (4705) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 32.2¢ | $49.71 | $42.93 | +$1.55 | 63% 3717-2213 (5930) |
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100 | Upavg 7.6¢ | $80.25 | — | +$73.91 | 59% 3410-2403 (5813) |
 ohioism<$100 | Downavg 43.6¢ | $41.66 | $30.96 | +$10.02 | 48% 1833-1999 (3832) |
Invested
$1,984.87
Value
—
PnL
$-2.0K
Record
50%
436-435 (871)
Invested
$1,534.66
Value
$1.6K
PnL
+$24.33
Record
98%
3131-65 (3196)
Invested
$1,720.29
Value
—
PnL
$-1.7K
Record
51%
2812-2714 (5526)
Invested
$891.74
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$307.23
Record
58%
4878-3558 (8436)
Invested
$357.66
Value
$563.9
PnL
+$214.9
Record
46%
880-1020 (1900)
Invested
$162.59
Value
$526
PnL
+$363.41
Record
51%
4461-4339 (8800)
Invested
$516.93
Value
$490
PnL
-$2.4
Record
55%
3034-2491 (5525)
Both legs:
Invested
$195.87
Value
$478.85
PnL
+$282.99
Record
50%
1219-1216 (2435)
Invested
$327.39
Value
—
PnL
-$327.39
Record
55%
4254-3494 (7748)
Invested
$92.75
Value
$200
PnL
+$107.25
Record
51%
849-816 (1665)
Polkadot-FrogCTRInvested
$470.8
Value
—
PnL
-$177.84
Record
51%
1930-1826 (3756)
MayorMamdaniInvested
$104.99
Value
$189.52
PnL
+$84.53
Record
52%
2385-2166 (4551)
Invested
$130.16
Value
—
PnL
-$130.16
Record
50%
1672-1674 (3346)
G-Penis-MonsterCTRInvested
$111.81
Value
—
PnL
-$111.81
Record
44%
1813-2341 (4154)
Invested
$76.33
Value
$101.04
PnL
+$24.71
Record
49%
827-855 (1682)
Both legs:
Invested
$105.7
Value
$202.22
PnL
+$96.52
Record
47%
1854-2076 (3930)
Both legs:
Invested
$42.9
Value
—
PnL
-$24.62
Record
49%
4099-4182 (8281)
Invested
$20.37
Value
$69
PnL
+$48.63
Record
39%
559-877 (1436)
Invested
$39.57
Value
—
PnL
-$39.57
Record
52%
4742-4430 (9172)
Invested
$54.63
Value
$61.56
PnL
+$7.7
Record
50%
2202-2243 (4445)
BoneOhioInvested
$79.5
Value
$200
PnL
+$120.5
Record
71%
1422-567 (1989)
Invested
$54.15
Value
$53.01
PnL
+$10.74
Record
67%
3145-1560 (4705)
Invested
$49.71
Value
$42.93
PnL
+$1.55
Record
63%
3717-2213 (5930)
Invested
$80.25
Value
—
PnL
+$73.91
Record
59%
3410-2403 (5813)
ohioism<$100Invested
$41.66
Value
$30.96
PnL
+$10.02
Record
48%
1833-1999 (3832)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
aswfadq1555
CTRUp — $0
hoodquant
Down — $1.6K
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
CTRUp — $0
Hcrystallash
Down — $1.2K
CrouchPredictions
Down — $563.9
bosona
Down — $526
ByteBadger92
ARBArbitrage — excluded
almach
Down — $478.85
stepahead
CTRUp — $0
Little-big
Down — $200