Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 13, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET

Resolved Down. 64% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 64%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$7.2K

Combined PnL

-$897.31

Smart Money Signal

Down

21 of 33 top traders (64%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%19 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down21 traders

Total Value$6.7K

Total Shares6,694

Combined PnL-$65.44

Up12 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares1,950

Combined PnL-$831.87

Down — 64%Up — 36%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AS aswfadq1555	Downavg 69.2¢	$2.5K	$2.0K	-$494.47	50% 428-433 (861)
HO hoodquant	Downavg 98.8¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$15.93	98% 3102-65 (3167)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Downavg 51.3¢	$934.4	$924.67	-$3.13	51% 2791-2702 (5493)
RL RLWGARB<$100	Upavg 42¢	$495	$375	-$120	65% 1875-1020 (2895)
└ Up leg	Upavg 42¢	$315	—	-$315
└ Down leg	Downavg 48¢	$180	$375	+$195
HC Hcrystallash	Downavg 57.4¢	$487.42	$497.66	+$10.24	58% 4867-3551 (8418)
CR CrouchPredictions	Downavg 60¢	$378.05	$496.74	+$118.69	46% 869-1012 (1881)
BY ByteBadger92CTR	Upavg 49.2¢	$531.19	—	-$485.95	55% 2993-2461 (5454)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Downavg 99¢	$193.05	$195	+$1.95	50% 1656-1666 (3322)
AS asdcaxz	Downavg 69.4¢	$166.94	$172.75	+$10.71	50% 4078-4158 (8236)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025	Downavg 51.1¢	$83.76	$164	+$80.24	47% 1867-2116 (3983)
BO bosonaCTR	Upavg 37.7¢	$151.34	—	-$151.34	51% 4446-4332 (8778)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e	Downavg 61.7¢	$167.72	$140	+$15.84	59% 3388-2384 (5772)
ST stepahead	Downavg 50¢	$115.19	$124.37	+$9.18	55% 4242-3487 (7729)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530	Downavg 48.6¢	$59.37	$122.17	+$62.8	47% 1827-2050 (3877)
PE peepeepoopoo24ARB<$100	Downavg 64¢	$104.95	$108.77	+$3.82	49% 823-852 (1675)
└ Down leg	Downavg 64¢	$69.66	$108.77	+$39.11
└ Up leg	Upavg 28.7¢	$35.29	—	-$35.29
Polkadot-Frog	Downavg 66.7¢	$463.3	$107	-$11.45	51% 1912-1810 (3722)
wowitsamazing<$100	Downavg 53.9¢	$38.25	$71.02	+$32.77	48% 155-169 (324)
MO mo-money<$100	Downavg 48¢	$41.67	$65.39	+$28.69	49% 1190-1231 (2421)
BL blue.birds<$100	Downavg 58.5¢	$40.44	$60	+$19.56	52% 4724-4405 (9129)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 63.5¢	$50.73	$48.29	+$0.09	67% 3113-1544 (4657)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Downavg 87.1¢	$39.66	$43.34	+$3.68	49% 2171-2227 (4398)
DR drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100	Upavg 55¢	$65.53	—	-$33.12	63% 3684-2190 (5874)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Downavg 44.5¢	$15.3	$19.22	+$7.95	64% 2181-1229 (3410)
PB PBot-6CTR<$100	Upavg 50¢	$15	—	-$15	50% 665-666 (1331)
ohioismCTR<$100	Upavg 47.1¢	$26.79	—	-$21.99	48% 1808-1977 (3785)

aswfadq1555

Down

Invested

$2,509

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$494.47

Record

50%

428-433 (861)

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$1,353.32

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$15.93

Record

98%

3102-65 (3167)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down

Invested

$934.4

Value

$924.67

PnL

-$3.13

Record

51%

2791-2702 (5493)

RLWGARB<$100

Invested

$495

Value

$375

PnL

-$120

Record

65%

1875-1020 (2895)

Both legs:

Invested

$487.42

Value

$497.66

PnL

+$10.24

Record

58%

4867-3551 (8418)

CrouchPredictions

Down

Invested

$378.05

Value

$496.74

PnL

+$118.69

Record

46%

869-1012 (1881)

ByteBadger92CTR

Invested

$531.19

Value

—

PnL

-$485.95

Record

55%

2993-2461 (5454)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down

Invested

$193.05

Value

$195

PnL

+$1.95

Record

50%

1656-1666 (3322)

asdcaxz

Down

Invested

$166.94

Value

$172.75

PnL

+$10.71

Record

50%

4078-4158 (8236)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025

Down

Invested

$83.76

Value

$164

PnL

+$80.24

Record

47%

1867-2116 (3983)

bosonaCTR

Invested

$151.34

Value

—

PnL

-$151.34

Record

51%

4446-4332 (8778)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e

Down

Invested

$167.72

Value

$140

PnL

+$15.84

Record

59%

3388-2384 (5772)

stepahead

Down

Invested

$115.19

Value

$124.37

PnL

+$9.18

Record

55%

4242-3487 (7729)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530

Down

Invested

$59.37

Value

$122.17

PnL

+$62.8

Record

47%

1827-2050 (3877)

peepeepoopoo24ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$104.95

Value

$108.77

PnL

+$3.82

Record

49%

823-852 (1675)

Both legs:

Invested

$463.3

Value

$107

PnL

-$11.45

Record

51%

1912-1810 (3722)

wowitsamazing<$100

Down

Invested

$38.25

Value

$71.02

PnL

+$32.77

Record

48%

155-169 (324)

mo-money<$100

Down

Invested

$41.67

Value

$65.39

PnL

+$28.69

Record

49%

1190-1231 (2421)

blue.birds<$100

Down

Invested

$40.44

Value

$60

PnL

+$19.56

Record

52%

4724-4405 (9129)

asdaefef<$100

Down

Invested

$50.73

Value

$48.29

PnL

+$0.09

Record

67%

3113-1544 (4657)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Down

Invested

$39.66

Value

$43.34

PnL

+$3.68

Record

49%

2171-2227 (4398)

drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100

Invested

$65.53

Value

—

PnL

-$33.12

Record

63%

3684-2190 (5874)

asidjasiodja<$100

Down

Invested

$15.3

Value

$19.22

PnL

+$7.95

Record

64%

2181-1229 (3410)

PBot-6CTR<$100

Invested

$15

Value

—

PnL

-$15

Record

50%

665-666 (1331)

ohioismCTR<$100

Invested

$26.79

Value

—

PnL

-$21.99

Record

48%

1808-1977 (3785)

Smart Money Signal

Down

21 of 33 top traders (64%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%19 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0xe60e909d...f59db6

Slug

btc-updown-15m-1794625200

Traders in this Market

aswfadq1555

Down — $2.0K

-$494.47

hoodquant

Down — $1.4K

+$15.93

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down — $924.67

-$3.13

RLWG

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$120

Hcrystallash

Down — $497.66

+$10.24

CrouchPredictions

Down — $496.74

+$118.69

ByteBadger92

CTR

Up — $0

-$485.95

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down — $195

+$1.95

asdcaxz

Down — $172.75

+$10.71

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025

Down — $164

+$80.24

Trade on Polymarket