Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 13, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET
Resolved Down. 59% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
27
Down 58%
3 arb excluded
$4.8K
-$962.11
Smart Money Signal
16 of 27 top traders (59%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HC Hcrystallash | Downavg 95.9¢ | $1.4K | $1.4K | +$59.66 | 58% 4784-3498 (8282) |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 99¢ | $1.4K | $1.4K | +$14.07 | 98% 2839-60 (2899) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100 | Upavg 34.3¢ | $909.47 | $568.94 | -$340.53 | 51% 2495-2439 (4934) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 73.9¢ | $420.57 | $568.94 | +$148.37 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 34.3¢ | $488.9 | — | -$488.9 | |
BY ByteBadger92CTR | Upavg 49.4¢ | $501.8 | — | -$494.3 | 55% 2727-2200 (4927) |
BO bosonaARB<$100 | Upavg 30.2¢ | $244.45 | $106.28 | -$138.18 | 51% 4353-4244 (8597) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 30.2¢ | $173.25 | — | -$173.25 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 67¢ | $71.2 | $106.28 | +$35.07 | |
 gabigol | Downavg 88.5¢ | $199.31 | $223.02 | +$23.71 | 48% 210-226 (436) |
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e | Downavg 73.4¢ | $163.22 | $222.26 | +$59.04 | 59% 3299-2310 (5609) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Downavg 57.6¢ | $249.15 | $210 | -$8.86 | 51% 1762-1676 (3438) |
AL Alpharo28 | Downavg 69.7¢ | $119.84 | $144.65 | +$33.77 | 59% 65-45 (110) |
FL flippingsharks | Downavg 72.5¢ | $90.17 | $124.45 | +$34.28 | 38% 493-800 (1293) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518 | Downavg 50.1¢ | $85.44 | $170.64 | +$85.2 | 49% 1538-1576 (3114) |
RL RLWGCTR | Upavg 27¢ | $102.75 | — | -$102.75 | 65% 1855-995 (2850) |
PE peepeepoopoo24ARB<$100 | Upavg 32.1¢ | $82.36 | $60 | -$22.37 | 49% 802-821 (1623) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 67¢ | $40.2 | $60 | +$19.8 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 32.1¢ | $42.16 | — | -$42.16 | |
ST stepaheadCTR | Upavg 30.1¢ | $111.58 | — | -$111.58 | 55% 4157-3431 (7588) |
AS aswfadq1555<$100 | Downavg 67.3¢ | $67.55 | $62.3 | -$5.25 | 50% 395-401 (796) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100 | Downavg 54.9¢ | $15.38 | $28 | +$12.62 | 47% 1726-1951 (3677) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 81.2¢ | $16.64 | $20.48 | +$3.84 | 66% 2874-1453 (4327) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 67.3¢ | $26.05 | $20 | +$4.75 | 63% 3391-2033 (5424) |
AA aaa221CTR<$100 | Upavg 30.2¢ | $42.59 | — | -$30.24 | 60% 3075-2056 (5131) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Downavg 88.2¢ | $11.26 | $11.06 | -$0.2 | 64% 2024-1152 (3176) |
AL almachCTR<$100 | Upavg 4.1¢ | $13.4 | — | -$13.4 | 50% 1107-1127 (2234) |
 MayorMamdaniCTR<$100 | Upavg 17.8¢ | $14.15 | — | -$14.15 | 52% 2202-2016 (4218) |
0X 0xcE25E214D5cfE4f459cf67F08DF581885AAE7Fdc-1777575398144<$100 | Downavg 69¢ | $3.45 | $5 | +$1.55 | 59% 110-78 (188) |
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710<$100 | Downavg 72¢ | $4.53 | $1 | +$1.37 | 40% 1121-1688 (2809) |
MO mo-moneyCTR<$100 | Upavg 1¢ | $0.4 | — | -$0.4 | 49% 1097-1145 (2242) |
Invested
$1,383.95
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$59.66
Record
58%
4784-3498 (8282)
Invested
$1,392.93
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$14.07
Record
98%
2839-60 (2899)
Invested
$909.47
Value
$568.94
PnL
-$340.53
Record
51%
2495-2439 (4934)
Both legs:
Invested
$501.8
Value
—
PnL
-$494.3
Record
55%
2727-2200 (4927)
Invested
$244.45
Value
$106.28
PnL
-$138.18
Record
51%
4353-4244 (8597)
Both legs:
gabigolInvested
$199.31
Value
$223.02
PnL
+$23.71
Record
48%
210-226 (436)
Invested
$163.22
Value
$222.26
PnL
+$59.04
Record
59%
3299-2310 (5609)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$249.15
Value
$210
PnL
-$8.86
Record
51%
1762-1676 (3438)
Invested
$119.84
Value
$144.65
PnL
+$33.77
Record
59%
65-45 (110)
Invested
$90.17
Value
$124.45
PnL
+$34.28
Record
38%
493-800 (1293)
Invested
$85.44
Value
$170.64
PnL
+$85.2
Record
49%
1538-1576 (3114)
Invested
$102.75
Value
—
PnL
-$102.75
Record
65%
1855-995 (2850)
Invested
$82.36
Value
$60
PnL
-$22.37
Record
49%
802-821 (1623)
Both legs:
Invested
$111.58
Value
—
PnL
-$111.58
Record
55%
4157-3431 (7588)
Invested
$67.55
Value
$62.3
PnL
-$5.25
Record
50%
395-401 (796)
Invested
$15.38
Value
$28
PnL
+$12.62
Record
47%
1726-1951 (3677)
Invested
$16.64
Value
$20.48
PnL
+$3.84
Record
66%
2874-1453 (4327)
Invested
$26.05
Value
$20
PnL
+$4.75
Record
63%
3391-2033 (5424)
Invested
$42.59
Value
—
PnL
-$30.24
Record
60%
3075-2056 (5131)
Invested
$11.26
Value
$11.06
PnL
-$0.2
Record
64%
2024-1152 (3176)
Invested
$13.4
Value
—
PnL
-$13.4
Record
50%
1107-1127 (2234)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100Invested
$14.15
Value
—
PnL
-$14.15
Record
52%
2202-2016 (4218)
Invested
$3.45
Value
$5
PnL
+$1.55
Record
59%
110-78 (188)
Invested
$4.53
Value
$1
PnL
+$1.37
Record
40%
1121-1688 (2809)
Invested
$0.4
Value
—
PnL
-$0.4
Record
49%
1097-1145 (2242)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
Hcrystallash
Down — $1.4K
hoodquant
Down — $1.4K
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
ARBArbitrage — excluded
ByteBadger92
CTRUp — $0
bosona
ARBArbitrage — excluded
gabigol
Down — $223.02
0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e
Down — $222.26
Polkadot-Frog
Down — $210
Alpharo28
Down — $144.65
flippingsharks
Down — $124.45