Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET

14 of 23 top Polymarket traders hold Down (61%) · Down at 100¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 13

Up<1¢Down>99¢Ended Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 61%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.8K

Combined PnL

$129.83

Smart Money Entry

85¢ → 100¢

+18% since entry · 14 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

14 of 23 top traders (61%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down14 traders

Total Value$3.6K

Total Shares3,601

Combined PnL+$418.86

Up9 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares2,360

Combined PnL-$289.04

Down — 61%Up — 39%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

14 traders

Top 2 hold 51%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

61% of non-arb traders are on Down. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 51% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpDown 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrUp 50% · 12

Diverging

Top 1000Down 61% · 23

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO hoodquant	Downavg 99¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	+$16.45	98% 2496-50 (2546)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Downavg 64¢	$374.81	$547.71	+$172.9	50% 2044-2046 (4090)
QU QuantumPebble673CTR	Upavg 50¢	$500	$515	+$15	—
BY ByteBadger92CTR	Upavg 50¢	$500	$515	+$15	56% 2475-1962 (4437)
AS aswfadq1555	Downavg 78.8¢	$324.94	$387.74	+$62.8	50% 333-333 (666)
CR CrouchPredictions	Downavg 84.1¢	$235.28	$259.41	+$24.74	46% 687-811 (1498)
BO bosona	Downavg 82¢	$203.27	$238.6	+$35.33	50% 4166-4088 (8254)
LI Little-big	Downavg 54.4¢	$89.83	$148.5	+$58.67	52% 691-631 (1322)
Polkadot-FrogCTR	Upavg 50¢	$100	$103	+$3	52% 1513-1391 (2904)
gabigolARB<$100	Downavg 97¢	$68.66	$82.03	+$13.37	52% 195-180 (375)
└ Down leg	Downavg 97¢	$66.64	$61.83	-$4.81
└ Up leg	Upavg 1¢	$2.02	$20.2	+$18.18
wowitsamazing<$100	Downavg 56.5¢	$41.25	$72.95	+$31.7	47% 122-139 (261)
ST stepahead<$100	Downavg 75.9¢	$47.48	$46.29	-$1.19	55% 3998-3332 (7330)
38 38791873984189CTR	Upavg 48.4¢	$222.8	$46	-$176.8	47% 2408-2683 (5091)
AS asdcaxz<$100	Downavg 79¢	$39.5	$45	+$5.5	49% 3598-3709 (7307)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 68.9¢	$20.57	$29.86	+$9.29	66% 2455-1255 (3710)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100	Downavg 76.4¢	$22.91	$27	+$4.09	59% 3041-2129 (5170)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 54¢	$29	$18.43	-$1.99	62% 2900-1741 (4641)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Downavg 79¢	$4.15	$4.73	+$0.58	63% 1730-1008 (2738)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Downavg 90¢	$4.5	$4.5	+$0	46% 1416-1633 (3049)
BL blue.birdsCTR<$100	Upavg 6¢	$1.8	$3	+$1.2	52% 4244-3980 (8224)
PB PBot-6CTR<$100	Upavg 48.5¢	$9.7	$2	-$7.7	50% 500-496 (996)
IM imoore-40CTR<$100	Upavg 49¢	$2.45	$0.5	-$1.95	91% 280-29 (309)
UN uninformedflowwCTR	Upavg 18¢	$132	$0.37	-$131.63	51% 1529-1484 (3013)
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100	Upavg 43¢	$5.16	$0.01	-$5.15	38% 813-1313 (2126)

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$1,714.68

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$16.45

Record

98%

2496-50 (2546)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down

Invested

$374.81

Value

$547.71

PnL

+$172.9

Record

50%

2044-2046 (4090)

QuantumPebble673CTR

Invested

$500

Value

$515

PnL

+$15

Record

—

ByteBadger92CTR

Invested

$500

Value

$515

PnL

+$15

Record

56%

2475-1962 (4437)

aswfadq1555

Down

Invested

$324.94

Value

$387.74

PnL

+$62.8

Record

50%

333-333 (666)

CrouchPredictions

Down

Invested

$235.28

Value

$259.41

PnL

+$24.74

Record

46%

687-811 (1498)

bosona

Down

Invested

$203.27

Value

$238.6

PnL

+$35.33

Record

50%

4166-4088 (8254)

Little-big

Down

Invested

$89.83

Value

$148.5

PnL

+$58.67

Record

52%

691-631 (1322)

Polkadot-FrogCTR

Invested

$100

Value

$103

PnL

+$3

Record

52%

1513-1391 (2904)

gabigolARB<$100

Down

Invested

$68.66

Value

$82.03

PnL

+$13.37

Record

52%

195-180 (375)

Both legs:

Invested

$41.25

Value

$72.95

PnL

+$31.7

Record

47%

122-139 (261)

stepahead<$100

Down

Invested

$47.48

Value

$46.29

PnL

-$1.19

Record

55%

3998-3332 (7330)

38791873984189CTR

Invested

$222.8

Value

$46

PnL

-$176.8

Record

47%

2408-2683 (5091)

asdcaxz<$100

Down

Invested

$39.5

Value

$45

PnL

+$5.5

Record

49%

3598-3709 (7307)

asdaefef<$100

Down

Invested

$20.57

Value

$29.86

PnL

+$9.29

Record

66%

2455-1255 (3710)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100

Down

Invested

$22.91

Value

$27

PnL

+$4.09

Record

59%

3041-2129 (5170)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Down

Invested

$29

Value

$18.43

PnL

-$1.99

Record

62%

2900-1741 (4641)

asidjasiodja<$100

Down

Invested

$4.15

Value

$4.73

PnL

+$0.58

Record

63%

1730-1008 (2738)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Down

Invested

$4.5

Value

$4.5

PnL

+$0

Record

46%

1416-1633 (3049)

blue.birdsCTR<$100

Invested

$1.8

Value

PnL

+$1.2

Record

52%

4244-3980 (8224)

PBot-6CTR<$100

Invested

$9.7

Value

PnL

-$7.7

Record

50%

500-496 (996)

imoore-40CTR<$100

Invested

$2.45

Value

$0.5

PnL

-$1.95

Record

91%

280-29 (309)

uninformedflowwCTR

Invested

$132

Value

$0.37

PnL

-$131.63

Record

51%

1529-1484 (3013)

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100

Invested

$5.16

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$5.15

Record

38%

813-1313 (2126)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Down

14 of 23 top traders (61%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

14 traders

Top 2 hold 51%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

61% of non-arb traders are on Down. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 51% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpDown 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrUp 50% · 12

Diverging

Top 1000Down 61% · 23

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.