Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET
30 of 35 top Polymarket traders hold Down (86%) · Down at 100¢ · $8K held · ended Nov 13
⚖️
Neutral
Down
35
Down 86%
2 arb excluded
$8.2K
$67.13
69.9¢ → 100¢
+43% since entry · 30 traders
Research grade
NeutralDown at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
30 of 35 top traders (86%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Downavg 82.1¢ | $1.4K | $1.6K | +$289.9 | 50% 2029-2035 (4064) |
AS aswfadq1555 | Downavg 80.5¢ | $1.5K | $1.5K | +$18.28 | 50% 323-327 (650) |
UN uninformedfloww | Downavg 51.3¢ | $422 | $773.77 | +$384.17 | 51% 1497-1460 (2957) |
BY ByteBadger92 | Downavg 50¢ | $500 | $500 | +$0 | 56% 2475-1962 (4437) |
QU QuantumPebble673 | Downavg 50¢ | $500 | $500 | +$0 | — |
CR CrouchPredictions | Downavg 53.9¢ | $311.01 | $344.87 | +$33.86 | 45% 667-799 (1466) |
PE peepeepoopoo24 | Downavg 86.7¢ | $276.77 | $286.94 | +$10.17 | 48% 677-723 (1400) |
 MayorMamdani | Downavg 92¢ | $226.21 | $237.39 | +$11.18 | 52% 1846-1725 (3571) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025 | Downavg 69.1¢ | $168.72 | $228.38 | +$59.66 | 47% 1444-1636 (3080) |
ST stepahead | Downavg 58.5¢ | $223.04 | $223.75 | +$0.71 | 55% 3986-3312 (7298) |
 ohioism | Downavg 58.2¢ | $141.55 | $222.02 | +$80.47 | 48% 1394-1530 (2924) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530 | Downavg 70.6¢ | $176.7 | $219.58 | +$42.88 | 46% 1383-1602 (2985) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Downavg 96.5¢ | $1.7K | $178.54 | -$108.67 | 52% 1478-1365 (2843) |
 G-Penis-Monster | Downavg 71.5¢ | $147.21 | $130 | -$15.71 | 44% 1391-1787 (3178) |
MO mo-moneyARB<$100 | Downavg 64.2¢ | $95.16 | $127.28 | +$32.12 | 48% 896-962 (1858) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 64.2¢ | $59.48 | $86.63 | +$27.15 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 5.7¢ | $35.68 | $40.65 | +$4.97 | |
BO bosonaARB<$100 | Upavg 9.8¢ | $100.69 | $122.5 | +$21.81 | 50% 4140-4074 (8214) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 64¢ | $44.8 | $62.65 | +$17.85 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 9.8¢ | $55.89 | $59.85 | +$3.96 | |
HC Hcrystallash | Downavg 43¢ | $52.46 | $121.94 | +$69.48 | 58% 4631-3405 (8036) |
0X 0x954b91DD68ECA3aA4EA603ECeA83C01E8539C0e0-1783400656972 | Downavg 92¢ | $96 | $104.3 | +$8.3 | 38% 210-348 (558) |
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e | Downavg 85.8¢ | $391 | $101.2 | -$45.39 | 59% 3030-2107 (5137) |
AL almachCTR | Upavg 8.4¢ | $208.05 | $94.8 | +$138.08 | 49% 897-952 (1849) |
 BoneOhio | Downavg 49.9¢ | $113.25 | $77.1 | -$36.14 | 73% 1126-414 (1540) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 58.4¢ | $77.88 | $76.47 | +$10.3 | 60% 2584-1729 (4313) |
PB PBot-5<$100 | Downavg 74.7¢ | $92.35 | $74.43 | -$17.92 | 48% 818-882 (1700) |
 gabigol<$100 | Downavg 92¢ | $67.53 | $65.47 | -$2.05 | 52% 190-177 (367) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 81.5¢ | $41.52 | $48.19 | +$7.15 | 66% 2417-1229 (3646) |
Invested
$1,377.91
Value
$1.6K
PnL
+$289.9
Record
50%
2029-2035 (4064)
Invested
$1,516.73
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$18.28
Record
50%
323-327 (650)
Invested
$422
Value
$773.77
PnL
+$384.17
Record
51%
1497-1460 (2957)
Invested
$500
Value
$500
PnL
+$0
Record
56%
2475-1962 (4437)
Invested
$500
Value
$500
PnL
+$0
Record
—
Invested
$311.01
Value
$344.87
PnL
+$33.86
Record
45%
667-799 (1466)
Invested
$276.77
Value
$286.94
PnL
+$10.17
Record
48%
677-723 (1400)
MayorMamdaniInvested
$226.21
Value
$237.39
PnL
+$11.18
Record
52%
1846-1725 (3571)
Invested
$168.72
Value
$228.38
PnL
+$59.66
Record
47%
1444-1636 (3080)
Invested
$223.04
Value
$223.75
PnL
+$0.71
Record
55%
3986-3312 (7298)
ohioismInvested
$141.55
Value
$222.02
PnL
+$80.47
Record
48%
1394-1530 (2924)
Invested
$176.7
Value
$219.58
PnL
+$42.88
Record
46%
1383-1602 (2985)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$1,710.43
Value
$178.54
PnL
-$108.67
Record
52%
1478-1365 (2843)
G-Penis-MonsterInvested
$147.21
Value
$130
PnL
-$15.71
Record
44%
1391-1787 (3178)
Invested
$95.16
Value
$127.28
PnL
+$32.12
Record
48%
896-962 (1858)
Both legs:
Invested
$100.69
Value
$122.5
PnL
+$21.81
Record
50%
4140-4074 (8214)
Both legs:
Invested
$52.46
Value
$121.94
PnL
+$69.48
Record
58%
4631-3405 (8036)
Invested
$96
Value
$104.3
PnL
+$8.3
Record
38%
210-348 (558)
Invested
$391
Value
$101.2
PnL
-$45.39
Record
59%
3030-2107 (5137)
Invested
$208.05
Value
$94.8
PnL
+$138.08
Record
49%
897-952 (1849)
BoneOhioInvested
$113.25
Value
$77.1
PnL
-$36.14
Record
73%
1126-414 (1540)
Invested
$77.88
Value
$76.47
PnL
+$10.3
Record
60%
2584-1729 (4313)
Invested
$92.35
Value
$74.43
PnL
-$17.92
Record
48%
818-882 (1700)
gabigol<$100Invested
$67.53
Value
$65.47
PnL
-$2.05
Record
52%
190-177 (367)
Invested
$41.52
Value
$48.19
PnL
+$7.15
Record
66%
2417-1229 (3646)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
Down — $1.6K
aswfadq1555
Down — $1.5K
uninformedfloww
Down — $773.77
ByteBadger92
Down — $500
QuantumPebble673
Down — $500
CrouchPredictions
Down — $344.87
peepeepoopoo24
Down — $286.94
MayorMamdani
Down — $237.39
0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025
Down — $228.38
stepahead
Down — $223.75