Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Up, while the market favors Down (98%). 10 of 29 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET

10 of 29 top Polymarket traders hold Up (34%) · Up at 2.3¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 12

Up2¢Down98¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

Up 34%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.5K

Combined PnL

-$421.6

Smart Money Entry

47.6¢ → 2.3¢

-95% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

AvoidUp at 2%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 29 top traders (34%)Underdog side (market favors Down 98%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%21 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up2%

Down98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up10 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares2,837

Combined PnL-$615.77

Down19 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares1,649

Combined PnL+$194.17

Up — 34%Down — 66%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 76%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

34% of non-arb traders are on Up. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpDown 100% · 4

Diverging

ctrDown 59% · 17

Diverging

Top 1000Down 66% · 29

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
QU QuantumPebble673CTR	Upavg 50¢	$500	$485	-$15	—
BY ByteBadger92CTR	Upavg 50¢	$500	$485	-$15	56% 2475-1962 (4437)
CR CrouchPredictionsARB<$100	Downavg 59.6¢	$276.49	$389.45	+$112.96	45% 667-799 (1466)
└ Down leg	Downavg 59.6¢	$202.39	$295.5	+$93.11
└ Up leg	Upavg 10.3¢	$74.09	$93.95	+$19.86
AL almach	Downavg 80.7¢	$272.05	$331.25	+$59.2	49% 897-952 (1849)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e	Downavg 96.5¢	$304.2	$308	+$3.8	59% 3030-2107 (5137)
MO mo-moneyARB<$100	Downavg 81.4¢	$147.4	$233.33	+$85.93	48% 896-962 (1858)
└ Down leg	Downavg 81.4¢	$137.03	$146.45	+$9.42
└ Up leg	Upavg 1.6¢	$10.37	$86.88	+$76.52
Polkadot-Frog	Downavg 77¢	$242.8	$191.09	+$1.7	52% 1478-1365 (2843)
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR	Upavg 58.9¢	$712.24	$157.26	-$554.98	38% 771-1268 (2039)
AS aswfadq1555	Downavg 77.9¢	$138.55	$154.82	+$16.27	50% 323-327 (650)
AA aaa221<$100	Downavg 64¢	$72.16	$98.04	+$25.88	60% 2584-1729 (4313)
ST stepaheadCTR	Upavg 28¢	$133.65	$88.55	-$8.77	55% 3986-3312 (7298)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100	Downavg 45.9¢	$58.43	$85.12	+$26.69	47% 1444-1636 (3080)
HO hoodquant<$100	Downavg 98.3¢	$81.97	$72.56	-$9.41	98% 2447-49 (2496)
BO bosona<$100	Downavg 89¢	$57.59	$63.49	+$5.9	50% 4140-4074 (8214)
GH ghorrock<$100	Downavg 47.4¢	$22.92	$42.06	+$19.13	53% 1117-973 (2090)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 63.9¢	$40.96	$41.31	+$4.73	66% 2417-1229 (3646)
UN uninformedfloww<$100	Downavg 48.6¢	$22.81	$40.79	+$17.99	51% 1497-1460 (2957)
PE peepeepoopoo24<$100	Downavg 82.2¢	$32.06	$33.93	+$1.87	48% 677-723 (1400)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 69.3¢	$40.18	$24.96	+$16.09	63% 2841-1704 (4545)
BoneOhio<$100	Downavg 90¢	$22.5	$21.75	-$0.75	73% 1126-414 (1540)
ohioismCTR<$100	Upavg 22.3¢	$18.25	$20.2	+$1.95	48% 1394-1530 (2924)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Downavg 94¢	$19.6	$17.89	-$1.71	49% 1644-1742 (3386)
MayorMamdani<$100	Downavg 92¢	$18.4	$17.4	-$1	52% 1846-1725 (3571)
PB PBot-5<$100	Downavg 54¢	$8.1	$13.05	+$4.95	48% 818-882 (1700)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Downavg 90.8¢	$12.78	$12.25	-$0.53	63% 1696-991 (2687)

QuantumPebble673CTR

Invested

$500

Value

$485

PnL

-$15

Record

—

ByteBadger92CTR

Invested

$500

Value

$485

PnL

-$15

Record

56%

2475-1962 (4437)

CrouchPredictionsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$276.49

Value

$389.45

PnL

+$112.96

Record

45%

667-799 (1466)

Both legs:

Down$202.3959.6¢+$93.11

Up$74.0910.3¢+$19.86

almach

Down

Invested

$272.05

Value

$331.25

PnL

+$59.2

Record

49%

897-952 (1849)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e

Down

Invested

$304.2

Value

$308

PnL

+$3.8

Record

59%

3030-2107 (5137)

mo-moneyARB<$100

Down

Invested

$147.4

Value

$233.33

PnL

+$85.93

Record

48%

896-962 (1858)

Both legs:

Down$137.0381.4¢+$9.42

Up$10.371.6¢+$76.52

Polkadot-Frog

Down

Invested

$242.8

Value

$191.09

PnL

+$1.7

Record

52%

1478-1365 (2843)

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR

Invested

$712.24

Value

$157.26

PnL

-$554.98

Record

38%

771-1268 (2039)

aswfadq1555

Down

Invested

$138.55

Value

$154.82

PnL

+$16.27

Record

50%

323-327 (650)

aaa221<$100

Down

Invested

$72.16

Value

$98.04

PnL

+$25.88

Record

60%

2584-1729 (4313)

stepaheadCTR

Invested

$133.65

Value

$88.55

PnL

-$8.77

Record

55%

3986-3312 (7298)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100

Down

Invested

$58.43

Value

$85.12

PnL

+$26.69

Record

47%

1444-1636 (3080)

hoodquant<$100

Down

Invested

$81.97

Value

$72.56

PnL

-$9.41

Record

98%

2447-49 (2496)

bosona<$100

Down

Invested

$57.59

Value

$63.49

PnL

+$5.9

Record

50%

4140-4074 (8214)

ghorrock<$100

Down

Invested

$22.92

Value

$42.06

PnL

+$19.13

Record

53%

1117-973 (2090)

asdaefef<$100

Down

Invested

$40.96

Value

$41.31

PnL

+$4.73

Record

66%

2417-1229 (3646)

uninformedfloww<$100

Down

Invested

$22.81

Value

$40.79

PnL

+$17.99

Record

51%

1497-1460 (2957)

peepeepoopoo24<$100

Down

Invested

$32.06

Value

$33.93

PnL

+$1.87

Record

48%

677-723 (1400)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Down

Invested

$40.18

Value

$24.96

PnL

+$16.09

Record

63%

2841-1704 (4545)

BoneOhio<$100

Down

Invested

$22.5

Value

$21.75

PnL

-$0.75

Record

73%

1126-414 (1540)

ohioismCTR<$100

Invested

$18.25

Value

$20.2

PnL

+$1.95

Record

48%

1394-1530 (2924)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Down

Invested

$19.6

Value

$17.89

PnL

-$1.71

Record

49%

1644-1742 (3386)

MayorMamdani<$100

Down

Invested

$18.4

Value

$17.4

PnL

-$1

Record

52%

1846-1725 (3571)

PBot-5<$100

Down

Invested

$8.1

Value

$13.05

PnL

+$4.95

Record

48%

818-882 (1700)

asidjasiodja<$100

Down

Invested

$12.78

Value

$12.25

PnL

-$0.53

Record

63%

1696-991 (2687)

Research grade

AvoidUp at 2%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 29 top traders (34%)Underdog side (market favors Down 98%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%21 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 76%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

34% of non-arb traders are on Up. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpDown 100% · 4

Diverging

ctrDown 59% · 17

Diverging

Top 1000Down 66% · 29

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance3.5%

2.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2738.19

Max Loss

-$100.00

2838.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.