Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET
Resolved Down. 75% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
32
Down 77%
2 arb excluded
$7.1K
$349.21
Smart Money Signal
24 of 32 top traders (75%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HC Hcrystallash | Downavg 95.3¢ | $1.3K | $1.4K | +$65.88 | 58% 4615-3393 (8008) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Downavg 69.3¢ | $1.1K | $1.0K | +$328.55 | 50% 1977-1974 (3951) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Downavg 75.9¢ | $412.11 | $511.88 | +$99.77 | 46% 655-779 (1434) |
BY ByteBadger92 | Downavg 50¢ | $500 | $500 | +$0 | 56% 2466-1957 (4423) |
QU QuantumPebble673 | Downavg 50¢ | $500 | $500 | +$0 | — |
MO mo-money | Downavg 92¢ | $462.17 | $500 | +$37.83 | 48% 875-948 (1823) |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 99¢ | $449.46 | $454 | +$4.54 | 98% 2405-48 (2453) |
UN uninformedfloww | Downavg 60.3¢ | $248 | $411.48 | +$163.48 | 50% 1445-1426 (2871) |
ST stepahead | Downavg 71.6¢ | $321.47 | $343.29 | +$21.81 | 55% 3964-3302 (7266) |
 gabigol | Downavg 91.6¢ | $227.81 | $246.6 | +$18.79 | 52% 185-174 (359) |
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eARB<$100 | Upavg 31.1¢ | $592.7 | $150.13 | -$442.57 | 59% 3010-2084 (5094) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 95.9¢ | $144.05 | $150.13 | +$6.08 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 31.1¢ | $448.65 | — | -$448.65 | |
AS aswfadq1555ARB<$100 | Downavg 74.2¢ | $270.33 | $315.29 | +$44.96 | 49% 313-326 (639) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 74.2¢ | $233.79 | $315.29 | +$81.5 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 40.6¢ | $36.54 | — | -$36.54 | |
 Polkadot-FrogCTR | Upavg 41.4¢ | $330.06 | — | -$194.94 | 52% 1456-1332 (2788) |
 MayorMamdani | Downavg 87.5¢ | $108.54 | $122.51 | +$13.97 | 52% 1810-1682 (3492) |
AA aaa221 | Downavg 84.1¢ | $106.49 | $120.24 | +$19.72 | 60% 2531-1695 (4226) |
BO bosona | Downavg 91.4¢ | $93.66 | $102.47 | +$8.81 | 50% 4114-4061 (8175) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100 | Downavg 69.1¢ | $69.08 | $90 | +$20.92 | 47% 1411-1608 (3019) |
PE peepeepoopoo24<$100 | Downavg 71¢ | $48.2 | $60 | +$11.8 | 48% 661-703 (1364) |
AS asdcaxz<$100 | Downavg 85¢ | $42.5 | $50 | +$7.5 | 49% 3525-3636 (7161) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100 | Downavg 49¢ | $32.61 | $66.55 | +$33.94 | 48% 1242-1341 (2583) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 65.9¢ | $27.62 | $41.9 | +$14.28 | 66% 2369-1200 (3569) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Downavg 84¢ | $19.6 | $20.12 | +$0.52 | 48% 1603-1710 (3313) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100 | Downavg 75.4¢ | $22.8 | $30.25 | +$7.45 | 55% 1432-1173 (2605) |
BL blue.birds<$100 | Downavg 71.6¢ | $21.42 | $28.3 | +$6.88 | 52% 4164-3913 (8077) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100 | Upavg 25¢ | $8.75 | — | -$8.75 | 46% 1350-1577 (2927) |
Invested
$1,329.37
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$65.88
Record
58%
4615-3393 (8008)
Invested
$1,056.01
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$328.55
Record
50%
1977-1974 (3951)
Invested
$412.11
Value
$511.88
PnL
+$99.77
Record
46%
655-779 (1434)
Invested
$500
Value
$500
PnL
+$0
Record
56%
2466-1957 (4423)
Invested
$500
Value
$500
PnL
+$0
Record
—
Invested
$462.17
Value
$500
PnL
+$37.83
Record
48%
875-948 (1823)
Invested
$449.46
Value
$454
PnL
+$4.54
Record
98%
2405-48 (2453)
Invested
$248
Value
$411.48
PnL
+$163.48
Record
50%
1445-1426 (2871)
Invested
$321.47
Value
$343.29
PnL
+$21.81
Record
55%
3964-3302 (7266)
gabigolInvested
$227.81
Value
$246.6
PnL
+$18.79
Record
52%
185-174 (359)
Invested
$592.7
Value
$150.13
PnL
-$442.57
Record
59%
3010-2084 (5094)
Both legs:
Invested
$270.33
Value
$315.29
PnL
+$44.96
Record
49%
313-326 (639)
Both legs:
Polkadot-FrogCTRInvested
$330.06
Value
—
PnL
-$194.94
Record
52%
1456-1332 (2788)
MayorMamdaniInvested
$108.54
Value
$122.51
PnL
+$13.97
Record
52%
1810-1682 (3492)
Invested
$106.49
Value
$120.24
PnL
+$19.72
Record
60%
2531-1695 (4226)
Invested
$93.66
Value
$102.47
PnL
+$8.81
Record
50%
4114-4061 (8175)
Invested
$69.08
Value
$90
PnL
+$20.92
Record
47%
1411-1608 (3019)
Invested
$48.2
Value
$60
PnL
+$11.8
Record
48%
661-703 (1364)
Invested
$42.5
Value
$50
PnL
+$7.5
Record
49%
3525-3636 (7161)
Invested
$32.61
Value
$66.55
PnL
+$33.94
Record
48%
1242-1341 (2583)
Invested
$27.62
Value
$41.9
PnL
+$14.28
Record
66%
2369-1200 (3569)
Invested
$19.6
Value
$20.12
PnL
+$0.52
Record
48%
1603-1710 (3313)
Invested
$22.8
Value
$30.25
PnL
+$7.45
Record
55%
1432-1173 (2605)
Invested
$21.42
Value
$28.3
PnL
+$6.88
Record
52%
4164-3913 (8077)
Invested
$8.75
Value
—
PnL
-$8.75
Record
46%
1350-1577 (2927)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
Hcrystallash
Down — $1.4K
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
Down — $1.0K
CrouchPredictions
Down — $511.88
ByteBadger92
Down — $500
QuantumPebble673
Down — $500
mo-money
Down — $500
hoodquant
Down — $454
uninformedfloww
Down — $411.48
stepahead
Down — $343.29
gabigol
Down — $246.6