Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET
Resolved Down. 93% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
28
Down 93%
1 arb excluded
$8.0K
$1.2K
Smart Money Signal
26 of 28 top traders (93%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HC Hcrystallash | Downavg 93.5¢ | $1.6K | $1.6K | -$13.89 | 58% 4615-3393 (8008) |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 98.7¢ | $974.29 | $987 | +$12.71 | 98% 2405-48 (2453) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Downavg 72.1¢ | $655.94 | $742.32 | +$183.38 | 50% 1977-1974 (3951) |
BY ByteBadger92 | Downavg 50¢ | $500 | $500 | +$0 | 56% 2466-1957 (4423) |
QU QuantumPebble673 | Downavg 50¢ | $500 | $500 | +$0 | — |
AL almach | Downavg 63¢ | $324.54 | $500 | +$175.46 | 48% 875-935 (1810) |
MO mo-money | Downavg 64¢ | $329.52 | $500 | +$170.48 | 48% 875-948 (1823) |
AS aswfadq1555 | Downavg 67.3¢ | $317.88 | $468.93 | +$151.05 | 49% 313-326 (639) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Downavg 70.2¢ | $249.01 | $354.91 | +$105.89 | 46% 655-779 (1434) |
BO bosona | Downavg 63¢ | $315 | $500 | +$185 | 50% 4114-4061 (8175) |
ST stepahead | Downavg 64.8¢ | $274.52 | $303 | +$28.48 | 55% 3964-3302 (7266) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Downavg 59.1¢ | $349.78 | $201.51 | +$22.27 | 52% 1456-1332 (2788) |
UN uninformedfloww | Downavg 85¢ | $171.06 | $201.25 | +$30.19 | 50% 1445-1426 (2871) |
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e | Downavg 82.1¢ | $108.36 | $132 | +$23.64 | 59% 3010-2084 (5094) |
 gabigol | Downavg 86.5¢ | $98.4 | $111.39 | +$12.99 | 52% 185-174 (359) |
PE peepeepoopoo24 | Downavg 65.6¢ | $80.59 | $100 | +$19.41 | 48% 661-703 (1364) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Downavg 72.8¢ | $50.03 | $68.7 | +$18.67 | 52% 1810-1682 (3492) |
RL RLWG<$100 | Downavg 70¢ | $47.83 | $68.33 | +$20.5 | 66% 1802-934 (2736) |
AA aaa221ARB<$100 | Upavg 33¢ | $58.82 | $31.16 | -$27.66 | 60% 2531-1695 (4226) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 80¢ | $24.93 | $31.16 | +$6.23 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 33¢ | $33.89 | — | -$33.89 | |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 73.5¢ | $24.99 | $34.02 | +$9.03 | 66% 2369-1200 (3569) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Downavg 85.2¢ | $19.9 | $23.36 | +$3.46 | 48% 1603-1710 (3313) |
BL blue.birds<$100 | Downavg 67¢ | $20.1 | $30 | +$9.9 | 52% 4164-3913 (8077) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100 | Downavg 67.4¢ | $16.85 | $25 | +$8.15 | 55% 1432-1173 (2605) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100 | Downavg 74¢ | $12.58 | $17 | +$4.42 | 46% 1350-1577 (2927) |
IM imoore-40<$100 | Downavg 49¢ | $4.9 | $5 | +$0.1 | 90% 266-29 (295) |
Invested
$1,583.29
Value
$1.6K
PnL
-$13.89
Record
58%
4615-3393 (8008)
Invested
$974.29
Value
$987
PnL
+$12.71
Record
98%
2405-48 (2453)
Invested
$655.94
Value
$742.32
PnL
+$183.38
Record
50%
1977-1974 (3951)
Invested
$500
Value
$500
PnL
+$0
Record
56%
2466-1957 (4423)
Invested
$500
Value
$500
PnL
+$0
Record
—
Invested
$324.54
Value
$500
PnL
+$175.46
Record
48%
875-935 (1810)
Invested
$329.52
Value
$500
PnL
+$170.48
Record
48%
875-948 (1823)
Invested
$317.88
Value
$468.93
PnL
+$151.05
Record
49%
313-326 (639)
Invested
$249.01
Value
$354.91
PnL
+$105.89
Record
46%
655-779 (1434)
Invested
$315
Value
$500
PnL
+$185
Record
50%
4114-4061 (8175)
Invested
$274.52
Value
$303
PnL
+$28.48
Record
55%
3964-3302 (7266)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$349.78
Value
$201.51
PnL
+$22.27
Record
52%
1456-1332 (2788)
Invested
$171.06
Value
$201.25
PnL
+$30.19
Record
50%
1445-1426 (2871)
Invested
$108.36
Value
$132
PnL
+$23.64
Record
59%
3010-2084 (5094)
gabigolInvested
$98.4
Value
$111.39
PnL
+$12.99
Record
52%
185-174 (359)
Invested
$80.59
Value
$100
PnL
+$19.41
Record
48%
661-703 (1364)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$50.03
Value
$68.7
PnL
+$18.67
Record
52%
1810-1682 (3492)
Invested
$47.83
Value
$68.33
PnL
+$20.5
Record
66%
1802-934 (2736)
Invested
$58.82
Value
$31.16
PnL
-$27.66
Record
60%
2531-1695 (4226)
Both legs:
Invested
$24.99
Value
$34.02
PnL
+$9.03
Record
66%
2369-1200 (3569)
Invested
$19.9
Value
$23.36
PnL
+$3.46
Record
48%
1603-1710 (3313)
Invested
$20.1
Value
$30
PnL
+$9.9
Record
52%
4164-3913 (8077)
Invested
$16.85
Value
$25
PnL
+$8.15
Record
55%
1432-1173 (2605)
Invested
$12.58
Value
$17
PnL
+$4.42
Record
46%
1350-1577 (2927)
Invested
$4.9
Value
$5
PnL
+$0.1
Record
90%
266-29 (295)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
Hcrystallash
Down — $1.6K
hoodquant
Down — $987
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
Down — $742.32
ByteBadger92
Down — $500
QuantumPebble673
Down — $500
almach
Down — $500
mo-money
Down — $500
aswfadq1555
Down — $468.93
CrouchPredictions
Down — $354.91
bosona
Down — $500