Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET

Resolved Down. 74% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 74%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$9.4K

Combined PnL

$150.8

Smart Money Signal

Down

28 of 38 top traders (74%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down28 traders

Total Value$7.9K

Total Shares7,876

Combined PnL+$1.4K

Up10 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares1,494

Combined PnL$-1.2K

Down — 74%Up — 26%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100	Downavg 71.9¢	$1.7K	$1.3K	-$418.83	50% 1977-1974 (3951)
└ Down leg	Downavg 71.9¢	$938.84	$1.3K	+$367.72
└ Up leg	Upavg 61.2¢	$786.55	—	-$786.55
0X 0x954b91DD68ECA3aA4EA603ECeA83C01E8539C0e0-1783400656972	Downavg 97.2¢	$749.37	$770.88	+$21.51	37% 206-346 (552)
UN uninformedfloww	Downavg 81.6¢	$809.02	$746.01	-$36.3	50% 1445-1426 (2871)
AL almach	Downavg 70.9¢	$541.7	$764.31	+$222.61	48% 875-935 (1810)
MO mo-money	Downavg 71.3¢	$672.5	$943.64	+$271.15	48% 875-948 (1823)
BO bosona	Downavg 59.2¢	$465.75	$786.71	+$320.96	50% 4114-4061 (8175)
ST stepahead	Downavg 64.6¢	$460.41	$527.96	+$67.55	55% 3964-3302 (7266)
BY ByteBadger92CTR	Upavg 50¢	$500	—	-$500	56% 2466-1957 (4423)
QU QuantumPebble673CTR	Upavg 50¢	$500	—	-$500	—
CR CrouchPredictions	Downavg 65.4¢	$348.61	$477.03	+$128.42	46% 655-779 (1434)
HO hoodquant	Downavg 99¢	$350.99	$354.64	+$3.65	98% 2405-48 (2453)
HC Hcrystallash	Downavg 66.8¢	$415.4	$315.44	-$91.33	58% 4615-3393 (8008)
AS aswfadq1555	Downavg 56.5¢	$258.43	$297.17	+$53.65	49% 313-326 (639)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e	Downavg 68.6¢	$281.75	$363.49	+$110.74	59% 3010-2084 (5094)
Polkadot-Frog	Downavg 50¢	$195.37	$207.59	+$21.6	52% 1456-1332 (2788)
NIULAI4	Downavg 94.9¢	$180.36	$190	+$9.64	20% 254-1040 (1294)
gabigol	Downavg 77.7¢	$195.34	$242.87	+$47.53	52% 185-174 (359)
AS asdaefefARB<$100	Downavg 71.3¢	$159.73	$138.4	-$21.33	66% 2369-1200 (3569)
└ Down leg	Downavg 71.3¢	$98.64	$138.4	+$39.76
└ Up leg	Upavg 62.2¢	$61.09	—	-$61.09
ohioism	Downavg 65.2¢	$98.7	$123.28	+$35.98	48% 1361-1500 (2861)
PE peepeepoopoo24	Downavg 59.9¢	$103.95	$133.52	+$29.57	48% 661-703 (1364)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530	Downavg 59.2¢	$66.92	$113	+$46.08	46% 1350-1577 (2927)
BL blue.birdsARB<$100	Upavg 39.3¢	$89.01	$77.36	-$11.65	52% 4164-3913 (8077)
└ Down leg	Downavg 54.1¢	$41.89	$77.36	+$35.47
└ Up leg	Upavg 39.3¢	$47.12	—	-$47.12
DR drfc4eybh7i8	Downavg 72.1¢	$190.27	$100.15	+$10.1	63% 2780-1667 (4447)
AA aaa221	Downavg 64.3¢	$67.42	$104.68	+$37.26	60% 2531-1695 (4226)
PB PBot-5<$100	Downavg 73.3¢	$55	$75	+$20	48% 800-859 (1659)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$1,725.39

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$418.83

Record

50%

1977-1974 (3951)

Both legs:

Down$938.8471.9¢+$367.72

Up$786.5561.2¢-$786.55

0x954b91DD68ECA3aA4EA603ECeA83C01E8539C0e0-1783400656972

Down

Invested

$749.37

Value

$770.88

PnL

+$21.51

Record

37%

206-346 (552)

uninformedfloww

Down

Invested

$809.02

Value

$746.01

PnL

-$36.3

Record

50%

1445-1426 (2871)

almach

Down

Invested

$541.7

Value

$764.31

PnL

+$222.61

Record

48%

875-935 (1810)

mo-money

Down

Invested

$672.5

Value

$943.64

PnL

+$271.15

Record

48%

875-948 (1823)

bosona

Down

Invested

$465.75

Value

$786.71

PnL

+$320.96

Record

50%

4114-4061 (8175)

stepahead

Down

Invested

$460.41

Value

$527.96

PnL

+$67.55

Record

55%

3964-3302 (7266)

ByteBadger92CTR

Invested

$500

Value

—

PnL

-$500

Record

56%

2466-1957 (4423)

QuantumPebble673CTR

Invested

$500

Value

—

PnL

-$500

Record

—

CrouchPredictions

Down

Invested

$348.61

Value

$477.03

PnL

+$128.42

Record

46%

655-779 (1434)

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$350.99

Value

$354.64

PnL

+$3.65

Record

98%

2405-48 (2453)

Hcrystallash

Down

Invested

$415.4

Value

$315.44

PnL

-$91.33

Record

58%

4615-3393 (8008)

aswfadq1555

Down

Invested

$258.43

Value

$297.17

PnL

+$53.65

Record

49%

313-326 (639)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e

Down

Invested

$281.75

Value

$363.49

PnL

+$110.74

Record

59%

3010-2084 (5094)

Polkadot-Frog

Down

Invested

$195.37

Value

$207.59

PnL

+$21.6

Record

52%

1456-1332 (2788)

NIULAI4

Down

Invested

$180.36

Value

$190

PnL

+$9.64

Record

20%

254-1040 (1294)

gabigol

Down

Invested

$195.34

Value

$242.87

PnL

+$47.53

Record

52%

185-174 (359)

asdaefefARB<$100

Down

Invested

$159.73

Value

$138.4

PnL

-$21.33

Record

66%

2369-1200 (3569)

Both legs:

Down$98.6471.3¢+$39.76

Up$61.0962.2¢-$61.09

ohioism

Down

Invested

$98.7

Value

$123.28

PnL

+$35.98

Record

48%

1361-1500 (2861)

peepeepoopoo24

Down

Invested

$103.95

Value

$133.52

PnL

+$29.57

Record

48%

661-703 (1364)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530

Down

Invested

$66.92

Value

$113

PnL

+$46.08

Record

46%

1350-1577 (2927)

blue.birdsARB<$100

Invested

$89.01

Value

$77.36

PnL

-$11.65

Record

52%

4164-3913 (8077)

Both legs:

Down$41.8954.1¢+$35.47

Up$47.1239.3¢-$47.12

drfc4eybh7i8

Down

Invested

$190.27

Value

$100.15

PnL

+$10.1

Record

63%

2780-1667 (4447)

aaa221

Down

Invested

$67.42

Value

$104.68

PnL

+$37.26

Record

60%

2531-1695 (4226)

PBot-5<$100

Down

Invested

$55

Value

$75

PnL

+$20

Record

48%

800-859 (1659)

Smart Money Signal

Down

28 of 38 top traders (74%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0x560a535f...dc8edb

Slug

btc-updown-15m-1794519900

Traders in this Market

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$418.83

0x954b91DD68ECA3aA4EA603ECeA83C01E8539C0e0-1783400656972

Down — $770.88

+$21.51

uninformedfloww

Down — $746.01

-$36.3

almach

Down — $764.31

+$222.61

mo-money

Down — $943.64

+$271.15

bosona

Down — $786.71

+$320.96

stepahead

Down — $527.96

ByteBadger92

Up — $0

QuantumPebble673

Up — $0

CrouchPredictions

Down — $477.03

+$128.42

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