Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET
Resolved Down. 70% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
33
Down 69%
2 arb excluded
$5.9K
-$855.62
Smart Money Signal
23 of 33 top traders (70%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%19 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Downavg 74.8¢ | $1.2K | $1.3K | +$219.3 | 50% 1977-1974 (3951) |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 98.8¢ | $810.95 | $821.08 | +$10.13 | 98% 2405-48 (2453) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Downavg 85.8¢ | $849.58 | $848.12 | -$1.46 | 46% 655-779 (1434) |
QU QuantumPebble673CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | — | -$500 | — |
BY ByteBadger92CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | — | -$500 | 56% 2466-1957 (4423) |
ST stepahead | Downavg 86.1¢ | $448.31 | $448.8 | +$0.5 | 55% 3964-3302 (7266) |
BO bosona | Downavg 79.1¢ | $345.92 | $418.17 | +$72.25 | 50% 4114-4061 (8175) |
0X 0x954b91DD68ECA3aA4EA603ECeA83C01E8539C0e0-1783400656972 | Downavg 96.9¢ | $353.06 | $364.35 | +$11.29 | 37% 206-346 (552) |
HC Hcrystallash | Downavg 79.6¢ | $463 | $357.29 | -$104.21 | 58% 4615-3393 (8008) |
AL almach | Downavg 85¢ | $295.59 | $335.02 | +$39.42 | 48% 875-935 (1810) |
MO mo-money | Downavg 97¢ | $738.08 | $233 | +$89.16 | 48% 875-948 (1823) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Downavg 56.3¢ | $140.58 | $134.01 | -$1.05 | 52% 1456-1332 (2788) |
 gabigolARB<$100 | Downavg 83¢ | $101.86 | $111.57 | +$9.71 | 52% 185-174 (359) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 83¢ | $92.58 | $111.57 | +$18.99 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 5.8¢ | $9.28 | — | -$9.28 | |
 NIULAI4 | Downavg 96.1¢ | $129.69 | $135 | +$5.31 | 20% 254-1040 (1294) |
PE peepeepoopoo24ARB<$100 | Downavg 75.9¢ | $95.99 | $98.33 | +$2.34 | 48% 661-703 (1364) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 75.9¢ | $74.63 | $98.33 | +$23.7 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 16.4¢ | $21.36 | — | -$21.36 | |
 wowitsamazing<$100 | Downavg 54.7¢ | $39.75 | $72.68 | +$32.93 | 47% 117-134 (251) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Downavg 88.9¢ | $32.1 | $36.12 | +$4.02 | 48% 1603-1710 (3313) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 67.5¢ | $21.38 | $31.67 | +$10.29 | 66% 2369-1200 (3569) |
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100 | Upavg 45¢ | $73.86 | — | -$73.86 | 37% 716-1225 (1941) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100 | Downavg 84.5¢ | $25.45 | $30.12 | +$4.67 | 55% 1432-1173 (2605) |
PB PBot-5<$100 | Downavg 75.8¢ | $18.95 | $25 | +$6.05 | 48% 800-859 (1659) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 65¢ | $23.08 | $21.85 | -$1.23 | 63% 2780-1667 (4447) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Downavg 93¢ | $18.6 | $20 | +$1.4 | 52% 1810-1682 (3492) |
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR | Upavg 4.7¢ | $148.05 | — | -$87.48 | 59% 3010-2084 (5094) |
0X 0xcE25E214D5cfE4f459cf67F08DF581885AAE7Fdc-1777575398144<$100 | Downavg 89.5¢ | $12.68 | $14.17 | +$1.49 | 56% 88-68 (156) |
Invested
$1,152.88
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$219.3
Record
50%
1977-1974 (3951)
Invested
$810.95
Value
$821.08
PnL
+$10.13
Record
98%
2405-48 (2453)
Invested
$849.58
Value
$848.12
PnL
-$1.46
Record
46%
655-779 (1434)
Invested
$500
Value
—
PnL
-$500
Record
—
Invested
$500
Value
—
PnL
-$500
Record
56%
2466-1957 (4423)
Invested
$448.31
Value
$448.8
PnL
+$0.5
Record
55%
3964-3302 (7266)
Invested
$345.92
Value
$418.17
PnL
+$72.25
Record
50%
4114-4061 (8175)
Invested
$353.06
Value
$364.35
PnL
+$11.29
Record
37%
206-346 (552)
Invested
$463
Value
$357.29
PnL
-$104.21
Record
58%
4615-3393 (8008)
Invested
$295.59
Value
$335.02
PnL
+$39.42
Record
48%
875-935 (1810)
Invested
$738.08
Value
$233
PnL
+$89.16
Record
48%
875-948 (1823)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$140.58
Value
$134.01
PnL
-$1.05
Record
52%
1456-1332 (2788)
gabigolARB<$100Invested
$101.86
Value
$111.57
PnL
+$9.71
Record
52%
185-174 (359)
Both legs:
NIULAI4Invested
$129.69
Value
$135
PnL
+$5.31
Record
20%
254-1040 (1294)
Invested
$95.99
Value
$98.33
PnL
+$2.34
Record
48%
661-703 (1364)
Both legs:
wowitsamazing<$100Invested
$39.75
Value
$72.68
PnL
+$32.93
Record
47%
117-134 (251)
Invested
$32.1
Value
$36.12
PnL
+$4.02
Record
48%
1603-1710 (3313)
Invested
$21.38
Value
$31.67
PnL
+$10.29
Record
66%
2369-1200 (3569)
Invested
$73.86
Value
—
PnL
-$73.86
Record
37%
716-1225 (1941)
Invested
$25.45
Value
$30.12
PnL
+$4.67
Record
55%
1432-1173 (2605)
Invested
$18.95
Value
$25
PnL
+$6.05
Record
48%
800-859 (1659)
Invested
$23.08
Value
$21.85
PnL
-$1.23
Record
63%
2780-1667 (4447)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$18.6
Value
$20
PnL
+$1.4
Record
52%
1810-1682 (3492)
Invested
$148.05
Value
—
PnL
-$87.48
Record
59%
3010-2084 (5094)
Invested
$12.68
Value
$14.17
PnL
+$1.49
Record
56%
88-68 (156)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
Down — $1.3K
hoodquant
Down — $821.08
CrouchPredictions
Down — $848.12
QuantumPebble673
CTRUp — $0
ByteBadger92
CTRUp — $0
stepahead
Down — $448.8
bosona
Down — $418.17
0x954b91DD68ECA3aA4EA603ECeA83C01E8539C0e0-1783400656972
Down — $364.35
Hcrystallash
Down — $357.29
almach
Down — $335.02