Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET
Resolved Up. 72% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
32
Up 72%
2 arb excluded
$5.0K
-$808.33
Smart Money Signal
23 of 32 top traders (72%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%20 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e | Upavg 96.9¢ | $666.73 | $688.38 | +$21.66 | 59% 2981-2065 (5046) |
AL almach | Upavg 99.5¢ | $1.2K | $541.79 | -$379.53 | 48% 859-914 (1773) |
QU QuantumPebble673 | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | $500 | +$0 | — |
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Downavg 50¢ | $500 | $490 | -$3.4 | 56% 2419-1897 (4316) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $245 | $490 | +$246.6 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $250 | — | -$250 | |
HO hoodquant | Upavg 99¢ | $455.3 | $460 | +$4.7 | 98% 2353-45 (2398) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Upavg 67.7¢ | $404.85 | $403 | -$1.85 | 50% 1923-1911 (3834) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Upavg 83.6¢ | $377.43 | $353 | -$13.22 | 53% 1432-1294 (2726) |
ST stepahead | Upavg 69.6¢ | $220.18 | $213.91 | -$0.52 | 55% 3949-3285 (7234) |
MO mo-money | Upavg 96.9¢ | $337.53 | $202.8 | -$134.73 | 48% 859-929 (1788) |
PB PBot-6 | Upavg 51¢ | $176.96 | $346.98 | +$170.02 | 50% 466-464 (930) |
HC Hcrystallash | Upavg 66.3¢ | $168.48 | $133 | -$35.48 | 58% 4587-3378 (7965) |
BO bosona | Upavg 99.5¢ | $724.31 | $128.36 | -$253.12 | 50% 4095-4042 (8137) |
CR CrouchPredictionsARB<$100 | Downavg 37.2¢ | $199.47 | $58 | -$141.47 | 46% 644-760 (1404) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 37.2¢ | $151.91 | — | -$151.91 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 82¢ | $47.56 | $58 | +$10.44 | |
 BoneOhio | Upavg 67¢ | $100.5 | $150 | +$49.5 | 74% 1097-389 (1486) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100 | Downavg 48¢ | $84.48 | — | -$84.48 | 48% 1221-1313 (2534) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Downavg 48.6¢ | $79.39 | — | -$79.39 | 48% 2255-2437 (4692) |
AS aswfadq1555<$100 | Upavg 83¢ | $66.5 | $63.57 | -$2.93 | 49% 308-315 (623) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100 | Upavg 76.5¢ | $46 | $60.11 | +$14.11 | 55% 1381-1151 (2532) |
 G-Penis-Monster<$100 | Upavg 67¢ | $30.95 | $35 | +$4.05 | 44% 1344-1706 (3050) |
 gabigol<$100 | Upavg 95¢ | $34.2 | $36 | +$1.8 | 52% 183-168 (351) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100 | Downavg 37.4¢ | $61.51 | — | -$58.21 | 47% 1374-1576 (2950) |
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100 | Downavg 3.3¢ | $39.79 | — | -$39.79 | 37% 679-1149 (1828) |
 ohioism<$100 | Upavg 56.9¢ | $32.31 | $33.33 | +$11.22 | 48% 1336-1466 (2802) |
BL blue.birds<$100 | Upavg 63¢ | $33.19 | $30 | -$3.19 | 52% 4124-3876 (8000) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Upavg 73.8¢ | $20.56 | $27.86 | +$7.3 | 66% 2317-1186 (3503) |
Invested
$666.73
Value
$688.38
PnL
+$21.66
Record
59%
2981-2065 (5046)
Invested
$1,231.75
Value
$541.79
PnL
-$379.53
Record
48%
859-914 (1773)
Invested
$500
Value
$500
PnL
+$0
Record
—
Invested
$500
Value
$490
PnL
-$3.4
Record
56%
2419-1897 (4316)
Both legs:
Invested
$455.3
Value
$460
PnL
+$4.7
Record
98%
2353-45 (2398)
Invested
$404.85
Value
$403
PnL
-$1.85
Record
50%
1923-1911 (3834)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$377.43
Value
$353
PnL
-$13.22
Record
53%
1432-1294 (2726)
Invested
$220.18
Value
$213.91
PnL
-$0.52
Record
55%
3949-3285 (7234)
Invested
$337.53
Value
$202.8
PnL
-$134.73
Record
48%
859-929 (1788)
Invested
$176.96
Value
$346.98
PnL
+$170.02
Record
50%
466-464 (930)
Invested
$168.48
Value
$133
PnL
-$35.48
Record
58%
4587-3378 (7965)
Invested
$724.31
Value
$128.36
PnL
-$253.12
Record
50%
4095-4042 (8137)
Invested
$199.47
Value
$58
PnL
-$141.47
Record
46%
644-760 (1404)
Both legs:
BoneOhioInvested
$100.5
Value
$150
PnL
+$49.5
Record
74%
1097-389 (1486)
Invested
$84.48
Value
—
PnL
-$84.48
Record
48%
1221-1313 (2534)
Invested
$79.39
Value
—
PnL
-$79.39
Record
48%
2255-2437 (4692)
Invested
$66.5
Value
$63.57
PnL
-$2.93
Record
49%
308-315 (623)
Invested
$46
Value
$60.11
PnL
+$14.11
Record
55%
1381-1151 (2532)
G-Penis-Monster<$100Invested
$30.95
Value
$35
PnL
+$4.05
Record
44%
1344-1706 (3050)
gabigol<$100Invested
$34.2
Value
$36
PnL
+$1.8
Record
52%
183-168 (351)
Invested
$61.51
Value
—
PnL
-$58.21
Record
47%
1374-1576 (2950)
Invested
$39.79
Value
—
PnL
-$39.79
Record
37%
679-1149 (1828)
ohioism<$100Invested
$32.31
Value
$33.33
PnL
+$11.22
Record
48%
1336-1466 (2802)
Invested
$33.19
Value
$30
PnL
-$3.19
Record
52%
4124-3876 (8000)
Invested
$20.56
Value
$27.86
PnL
+$7.3
Record
66%
2317-1186 (3503)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e
Up — $688.38
almach
Up — $541.79
QuantumPebble673
Up — $500
ByteBadger92
ARBArbitrage — excluded
hoodquant
Up — $460
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
Up — $403
Polkadot-Frog
Up — $353
stepahead
Up — $213.91
mo-money
Up — $202.8
PBot-6
Up — $346.98