Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET
Resolved Down. 71% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
35
Down 71%
3 arb excluded
$5.8K
-$300.74
Smart Money Signal
25 of 35 top traders (71%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%20 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO hoodquant | Downavg 99¢ | $1.4K | $1.4K | +$14.05 | 98% 2353-45 (2398) |
HC Hcrystallash | Downavg 59.3¢ | $447.23 | $646.02 | +$198.79 | 58% 4587-3378 (7965) |
QU QuantumPebble673CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | — | -$500 | — |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Downavg 62.4¢ | $429.52 | $500.92 | +$111.98 | 50% 1923-1911 (3834) |
BY ByteBadger92 | Downavg 50.2¢ | $506.1 | $500 | +$5.8 | 56% 2419-1897 (4316) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Downavg 78.4¢ | $368.8 | $427.61 | +$58.81 | 46% 644-760 (1404) |
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e | Downavg 92.3¢ | $368.7 | $399.28 | +$30.58 | 59% 2981-2065 (5046) |
MO mo-moneyARB<$100 | Downavg 67.3¢ | $230.48 | $333.96 | +$103.48 | 48% 859-929 (1788) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 67.3¢ | $224.82 | $333.96 | +$109.14 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 1¢ | $5.66 | — | -$5.66 | |
ST stepahead | Downavg 70.7¢ | $356.64 | $355.82 | -$0.82 | 55% 3949-3285 (7234) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Downavg 56.6¢ | $262.25 | $253 | -$2.36 | 53% 1432-1294 (2726) |
LI Little-big | Downavg 51.7¢ | $103.38 | $200 | +$96.62 | 53% 656-587 (1243) |
0X 0x50f7 | Downavg 99.9¢ | $199.29 | $199.49 | +$0.2 | 49% 927-964 (1891) |
DE devonpollCTR | Upavg 50¢ | $180 | — | -$180 | 53% 314-280 (594) |
AS aswfadq1555ARB<$100 | Downavg 75.3¢ | $160.4 | $148.15 | -$12.25 | 49% 308-315 (623) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 75.3¢ | $111.5 | $148.15 | +$36.65 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 17.4¢ | $48.9 | — | -$48.9 | |
38 38791873984189 | Downavg 49¢ | $52.14 | $106.51 | +$54.37 | 48% 2255-2437 (4692) |
AL almachARB<$100 | Downavg 88¢ | $38.91 | $39.33 | +$0.42 | 48% 859-914 (1773) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 1.4¢ | $4.3 | — | -$4.3 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 88¢ | $34.61 | $39.33 | +$4.72 | |
 gabigolCTR<$100 | Upavg 1¢ | $5.93 | — | -$5.93 | 52% 183-168 (351) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100 | Downavg 69.5¢ | $38.5 | $55.38 | +$16.88 | 55% 1381-1151 (2532) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 64¢ | $42.35 | $34.7 | +$4.76 | 60% 2481-1663 (4144) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 59¢ | $43.41 | $29.67 | +$7.56 | 62% 2708-1636 (4344) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 69.4¢ | $18.01 | $25.94 | +$7.93 | 66% 2317-1186 (3503) |
BO bosona | Downavg 99.5¢ | $188.71 | $24.55 | +$37.27 | 50% 4095-4042 (8137) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Downavg 88.3¢ | $20.17 | $22.85 | +$2.68 | 48% 1558-1684 (3242) |
PB PBot-6CTR<$100 | Upavg 52¢ | $66.3 | — | -$66.3 | 50% 466-464 (930) |
BO Bonereaper<$100 | Downavg 49.5¢ | $5.45 | $11 | +$5.55 | 60% 670-448 (1118) |
Invested
$1,390.95
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$14.05
Record
98%
2353-45 (2398)
Invested
$447.23
Value
$646.02
PnL
+$198.79
Record
58%
4587-3378 (7965)
Invested
$500
Value
—
PnL
-$500
Record
—
Invested
$429.52
Value
$500.92
PnL
+$111.98
Record
50%
1923-1911 (3834)
Invested
$506.1
Value
$500
PnL
+$5.8
Record
56%
2419-1897 (4316)
Invested
$368.8
Value
$427.61
PnL
+$58.81
Record
46%
644-760 (1404)
Invested
$368.7
Value
$399.28
PnL
+$30.58
Record
59%
2981-2065 (5046)
Invested
$230.48
Value
$333.96
PnL
+$103.48
Record
48%
859-929 (1788)
Both legs:
Invested
$356.64
Value
$355.82
PnL
-$0.82
Record
55%
3949-3285 (7234)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$262.25
Value
$253
PnL
-$2.36
Record
53%
1432-1294 (2726)
Invested
$103.38
Value
$200
PnL
+$96.62
Record
53%
656-587 (1243)
Invested
$199.29
Value
$199.49
PnL
+$0.2
Record
49%
927-964 (1891)
Invested
$180
Value
—
PnL
-$180
Record
53%
314-280 (594)
Invested
$160.4
Value
$148.15
PnL
-$12.25
Record
49%
308-315 (623)
Both legs:
Invested
$52.14
Value
$106.51
PnL
+$54.37
Record
48%
2255-2437 (4692)
Invested
$38.91
Value
$39.33
PnL
+$0.42
Record
48%
859-914 (1773)
Both legs:
gabigolCTR<$100Invested
$5.93
Value
—
PnL
-$5.93
Record
52%
183-168 (351)
Invested
$38.5
Value
$55.38
PnL
+$16.88
Record
55%
1381-1151 (2532)
Invested
$42.35
Value
$34.7
PnL
+$4.76
Record
60%
2481-1663 (4144)
Invested
$43.41
Value
$29.67
PnL
+$7.56
Record
62%
2708-1636 (4344)
Invested
$18.01
Value
$25.94
PnL
+$7.93
Record
66%
2317-1186 (3503)
Invested
$188.71
Value
$24.55
PnL
+$37.27
Record
50%
4095-4042 (8137)
Invested
$20.17
Value
$22.85
PnL
+$2.68
Record
48%
1558-1684 (3242)
Invested
$66.3
Value
—
PnL
-$66.3
Record
50%
466-464 (930)
Invested
$5.45
Value
$11
PnL
+$5.55
Record
60%
670-448 (1118)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
hoodquant
Down — $1.4K
Hcrystallash
Down — $646.02
QuantumPebble673
CTRUp — $0
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
Down — $500.92
ByteBadger92
Down — $500
CrouchPredictions
Down — $427.61
0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e
Down — $399.28
mo-money
ARBArbitrage — excluded
stepahead
Down — $355.82
Polkadot-Frog
Down — $253