Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Up, while the market favors Down (98%). 13 of 28 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET

13 of 28 top Polymarket traders hold Up (46%) · Up at 2.5¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 12

Up3¢Down97¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

Up 46%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.4K

Combined PnL

-$115.05

Smart Money Entry

45.5¢ → 2.5¢

-95% since entry · 13 traders

Research grade

AvoidUp at 3%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

13 of 28 top traders (46%)Underdog side (market favors Down 98%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%20 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up3%

Down98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up13 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares2,199

Combined PnL-$241.65

Down15 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares1,583

Combined PnL+$126.61

Up — 46%Down — 54%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
QU QuantumPebble673CTR	Upavg 50¢	$500	$500	+$0	—
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Upavg 49.5¢	$512.25	$499.1	+$1.1	56% 2372-1839 (4211)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$247.27	$348.65	+$101.65
└ Up leg	Upavg 49.5¢	$252.35	$150.45	-$100.55
HC Hcrystallash	Downavg 49.8¢	$444.65	$477.31	+$32.66	58% 4568-3363 (7931)
AS aswfadq1555	Downavg 64.1¢	$401.55	$473.85	+$72.3	49% 298-309 (607)
ST stepahead	Downavg 52.4¢	$261.42	$253.4	-$8.01	55% 3928-3274 (7202)
Polkadot-FrogCTR	Upavg 49.5¢	$245.51	$250.83	+$5.32	53% 1399-1261 (2660)
CR CrouchPredictionsCTR	Upavg 34.4¢	$309.7	$226.87	-$82.83	46% 636-736 (1372)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR	Upavg 51.9¢	$251.21	$212.98	-$38.23	50% 1859-1828 (3687)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Downavg 51.4¢	$43.5	$65.09	+$21.59	46% 1298-1506 (2804)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 64.7¢	$64.2	$60.1	-$1.2	66% 2271-1160 (3431)
BL blue.birds<$100	Downavg 60.4¢	$57.6	$54.92	-$2.68	52% 4097-3832 (7929)
PE peepeepoopoo24CTR<$100	Upavg 38¢	$36.67	$54.06	+$17.39	49% 640-663 (1303)
MO mo-moneyCTR<$100	Upavg 39¢	$44.31	$49.42	+$5.11	48% 840-911 (1751)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR	Upavg 54.5¢	$189.1	$43.38	-$145.72	59% 2959-2052 (5011)
ohioism<$100	Downavg 65¢	$24.29	$31.76	+$7.47	48% 1314-1432 (2746)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100	Downavg 50.5¢	$21.09	$25.12	+$4.03	47% 1347-1530 (2877)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Downavg 97¢	$23.92	$20.44	-$3.48	48% 1515-1649 (3164)
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100	Downavg 55.3¢	$8.3	$13.43	+$5.13	55% 1366-1134 (2500)
AA aaa221CTR<$100	Upavg 61.3¢	$21.96	$12.1	-$0.99	60% 2431-1634 (4065)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 45.9¢	$92.03	$11.41	-$4.54	62% 2642-1602 (4244)
G-Penis-Monster<$100	Downavg 41.8¢	$8.35	$11.3	+$2.95	44% 1316-1666 (2982)
AL almachCTR<$100	Upavg 32¢	$11.59	$9.25	-$2.35	48% 838-895 (1733)
gabigol<$100	Downavg 88¢	$7.23	$7.36	+$0.12	53% 181-163 (344)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100	Upavg 39.3¢	$5.9	$6.53	+$0.63	52% 1755-1602 (3357)
IM imoore-40CTR<$100	Upavg 49¢	$4.9	$5	+$0.1	90% 252-27 (279)

QuantumPebble673CTR

Invested

$500

Value

$500

PnL

+$0

Record

—

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Invested

$512.25

Value

$499.1

PnL

+$1.1

Record

56%

2372-1839 (4211)

Both legs:

Down$247.2750¢+$101.65

Up$252.3549.5¢-$100.55

Hcrystallash

Down

Invested

$444.65

Value

$477.31

PnL

+$32.66

Record

58%

4568-3363 (7931)

aswfadq1555

Down

Invested

$401.55

Value

$473.85

PnL

+$72.3

Record

49%

298-309 (607)

stepahead

Down

Invested

$261.42

Value

$253.4

PnL

-$8.01

Record

55%

3928-3274 (7202)

Polkadot-FrogCTR

Invested

$245.51

Value

$250.83

PnL

+$5.32

Record

53%

1399-1261 (2660)

CrouchPredictionsCTR

Invested

$309.7

Value

$226.87

PnL

-$82.83

Record

46%

636-736 (1372)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR

Invested

$251.21

Value

$212.98

PnL

-$38.23

Record

50%

1859-1828 (3687)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Down

Invested

$43.5

Value

$65.09

PnL

+$21.59

Record

46%

1298-1506 (2804)

asdaefef<$100

Down

Invested

$64.2

Value

$60.1

PnL

-$1.2

Record

66%

2271-1160 (3431)

blue.birds<$100

Down

Invested

$57.6

Value

$54.92

PnL

-$2.68

Record

52%

4097-3832 (7929)

peepeepoopoo24CTR<$100

Invested

$36.67

Value

$54.06

PnL

+$17.39

Record

49%

640-663 (1303)

mo-moneyCTR<$100

Invested

$44.31

Value

$49.42

PnL

+$5.11

Record

48%

840-911 (1751)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR

Invested

$189.1

Value

$43.38

PnL

-$145.72

Record

59%

2959-2052 (5011)

ohioism<$100

Down

Invested

$24.29

Value

$31.76

PnL

+$7.47

Record

48%

1314-1432 (2746)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100

Down

Invested

$21.09

Value

$25.12

PnL

+$4.03

Record

47%

1347-1530 (2877)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Down

Invested

$23.92

Value

$20.44

PnL

-$3.48

Record

48%

1515-1649 (3164)

Kathod-Shi-14<$100

Down

Invested

$8.3

Value

$13.43

PnL

+$5.13

Record

55%

1366-1134 (2500)

aaa221CTR<$100

Invested

$21.96

Value

$12.1

PnL

-$0.99

Record

60%

2431-1634 (4065)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Down

Invested

$92.03

Value

$11.41

PnL

-$4.54

Record

62%

2642-1602 (4244)

G-Penis-Monster<$100

Down

Invested

$8.35

Value

$11.3

PnL

+$2.95

Record

44%

1316-1666 (2982)

almachCTR<$100

Invested

$11.59

Value

$9.25

PnL

-$2.35

Record

48%

838-895 (1733)

gabigol<$100

Down

Invested

$7.23

Value

$7.36

PnL

+$0.12

Record

53%

181-163 (344)

MayorMamdaniCTR<$100

Invested

$5.9

Value

$6.53

PnL

+$0.63

Record

52%

1755-1602 (3357)

imoore-40CTR<$100

Invested

$4.9

Value

PnL

+$0.1

Record

90%

252-27 (279)

Research grade

AvoidUp at 3%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

13 of 28 top traders (46%)Underdog side (market favors Down 98%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%20 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance3.7%

2.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2576.36

Max Loss

-$100.00

2676.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.