Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET
Resolved Up. 61% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
33
Up 59%
2 arb excluded
$6.9K
-$779.51
Smart Money Signal
20 of 33 top traders (61%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%21 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HC Hcrystallash | Upavg 91.5¢ | $1.4K | $1.5K | +$130.04 | 58% 4568-3363 (7931) |
HO hoodquant | Upavg 98.3¢ | $1.3K | $1.3K | +$21.87 | 98% 2299-45 (2344) |
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e | Upavg 87.8¢ | $962.05 | $1.1K | +$133.45 | 59% 2959-2052 (5011) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Upavg 69.7¢ | $710.4 | $776.17 | +$65.77 | 50% 1859-1828 (3687) |
BO bosona | Upavg 94.2¢ | $542.58 | $555.17 | +$12.59 | 50% 4072-4027 (8099) |
QU QuantumPebble673CTR | Downavg 50¢ | $500 | — | -$500 | — |
BY ByteBadger92CTR | Downavg 48.8¢ | $527.42 | — | -$487.31 | 56% 2372-1839 (4211) |
AS aswfadq1555ARB<$100 | Upavg 62.6¢ | $487.85 | $617.56 | +$129.72 | 49% 298-309 (607) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 62.6¢ | $386.81 | $617.56 | +$230.76 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 46¢ | $101.04 | — | -$101.04 | |
CR CrouchPredictionsCTR | Downavg 20.2¢ | $193.92 | — | -$193.92 | 46% 636-736 (1372) |
ST stepahead | Upavg 61.6¢ | $185.97 | $176.7 | -$9.26 | 55% 3928-3274 (7202) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Upavg 53.2¢ | $154.38 | $150 | -$4.38 | 53% 1399-1261 (2660) |
LI Little-big | Upavg 51.9¢ | $63.28 | $122.02 | +$58.74 | 53% 649-572 (1221) |
AS asdaefef | Upavg 72.5¢ | $121.25 | $112.8 | -$8.45 | 66% 2271-1160 (3431) |
UN uninformedflowwARB<$100 | Downavg 41.5¢ | $78.66 | $70 | -$8.66 | 51% 1376-1320 (2696) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 48¢ | $33.6 | $70 | +$36.4 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 41.5¢ | $45.06 | — | -$45.06 | |
 wowitsamazing<$100 | Upavg 57.7¢ | $42 | $72.84 | +$30.84 | 45% 109-133 (242) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Upavg 58.1¢ | $99.87 | $59.97 | +$9.03 | 62% 2642-1602 (4244) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100 | Upavg 55¢ | $41.25 | $75 | +$33.75 | 46% 1298-1506 (2804) |
 G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100 | Downavg 46.1¢ | $41.27 | — | -$41.27 | 44% 1316-1666 (2982) |
MO mo-moneyCTR<$100 | Downavg 39¢ | $38.61 | — | -$38.61 | 48% 840-911 (1751) |
PE peepeepoopoo24CTR<$100 | Downavg 16.8¢ | $25.2 | — | -$25.2 | 49% 640-663 (1303) |
PB PBot-6<$100 | Upavg 49¢ | $23.32 | $47.59 | +$24.27 | 50% 450-448 (898) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Upavg 72.4¢ | $15.94 | $22.01 | +$6.07 | 63% 1587-944 (2531) |
BL blue.birds<$100 | Upavg 48.1¢ | $28.04 | $58.29 | +$30.25 | 52% 4097-3832 (7929) |
 ohioismCTR<$100 | Downavg 16¢ | $10.55 | — | -$10.55 | 48% 1314-1432 (2746) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Upavg 58¢ | $14.94 | $13.67 | +$3.73 | 60% 2431-1634 (4065) |
Invested
$1,400.61
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$130.04
Record
58%
4568-3363 (7931)
Invested
$1,295.56
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$21.87
Record
98%
2299-45 (2344)
Invested
$962.05
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$133.45
Record
59%
2959-2052 (5011)
Invested
$710.4
Value
$776.17
PnL
+$65.77
Record
50%
1859-1828 (3687)
Invested
$542.58
Value
$555.17
PnL
+$12.59
Record
50%
4072-4027 (8099)
Invested
$500
Value
—
PnL
-$500
Record
—
Invested
$527.42
Value
—
PnL
-$487.31
Record
56%
2372-1839 (4211)
Invested
$487.85
Value
$617.56
PnL
+$129.72
Record
49%
298-309 (607)
Both legs:
Invested
$193.92
Value
—
PnL
-$193.92
Record
46%
636-736 (1372)
Invested
$185.97
Value
$176.7
PnL
-$9.26
Record
55%
3928-3274 (7202)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$154.38
Value
$150
PnL
-$4.38
Record
53%
1399-1261 (2660)
Invested
$63.28
Value
$122.02
PnL
+$58.74
Record
53%
649-572 (1221)
Invested
$121.25
Value
$112.8
PnL
-$8.45
Record
66%
2271-1160 (3431)
Invested
$78.66
Value
$70
PnL
-$8.66
Record
51%
1376-1320 (2696)
Both legs:
wowitsamazing<$100Invested
$42
Value
$72.84
PnL
+$30.84
Record
45%
109-133 (242)
Invested
$99.87
Value
$59.97
PnL
+$9.03
Record
62%
2642-1602 (4244)
Invested
$41.25
Value
$75
PnL
+$33.75
Record
46%
1298-1506 (2804)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100Invested
$41.27
Value
—
PnL
-$41.27
Record
44%
1316-1666 (2982)
Invested
$38.61
Value
—
PnL
-$38.61
Record
48%
840-911 (1751)
Invested
$25.2
Value
—
PnL
-$25.2
Record
49%
640-663 (1303)
Invested
$23.32
Value
$47.59
PnL
+$24.27
Record
50%
450-448 (898)
Invested
$15.94
Value
$22.01
PnL
+$6.07
Record
63%
1587-944 (2531)
Invested
$28.04
Value
$58.29
PnL
+$30.25
Record
52%
4097-3832 (7929)
ohioismCTR<$100Invested
$10.55
Value
—
PnL
-$10.55
Record
48%
1314-1432 (2746)
Invested
$14.94
Value
$13.67
PnL
+$3.73
Record
60%
2431-1634 (4065)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
Hcrystallash
Up — $1.5K
hoodquant
Up — $1.3K
0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e
Up — $1.1K
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
Up — $776.17
bosona
Up — $555.17
QuantumPebble673
CTRDown — $0
ByteBadger92
CTRDown — $0
aswfadq1555
ARBArbitrage — excluded
CrouchPredictions
CTRDown — $0
stepahead
Up — $176.7