Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET

14 of 22 top Polymarket traders hold Down (64%) · Down at 100¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 12

Up<1¢Down>99¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 64%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.7K

Combined PnL

$262.43

Smart Money Entry

85.4¢ → 100¢

+17% since entry · 14 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

14 of 22 top traders (64%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down14 traders

Total Value$3.5K

Total Shares3,557

Combined PnL+$341.71

Up8 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares1,680

Combined PnL-$79.27

Down — 64%Up — 36%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO hoodquant	Downavg 99¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$13.44	98% 2252-45 (2297)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Downavg 74.5¢	$736.99	$885.43	+$177.24	51% 1806-1756 (3562)
BY ByteBadger92CTR	Upavg 50¢	$500	$500	+$0	56% 2370-1839 (4209)
QU QuantumPebble673CTR	Upavg 50¢	$500	$500	+$0	—
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e	Downavg 84.5¢	$259.86	$307.51	+$47.65	59% 2945-2044 (4989)
Polkadot-Frog	Downavg 78.1¢	$256.58	$253.15	+$2.65	53% 1367-1231 (2598)
AL almach	Downavg 90.4¢	$173.33	$183.18	+$9.86	48% 818-877 (1695)
AS aswfadq1555	Downavg 58.1¢	$90.43	$154.38	+$63.95	49% 293-300 (593)
HC Hcrystallash	Downavg 77.9¢	$144.7	$142.56	-$2.14	58% 4542-3345 (7887)
ST stepahead	Downavg 80.6¢	$114.97	$120.11	+$5.15	54% 3908-3264 (7172)
0X 0x954b91DD68ECA3aA4EA603ECeA83C01E8539C0e0-1783400656972ARB<$100	Upavg 23.3¢	$107.5	$90.54	-$16.96	37% 202-340 (542)
└ Up leg	Upavg 23.3¢	$61	$48.43	-$12.57
└ Down leg	Downavg 90¢	$46.5	$42.11	-$4.39
PB PBot-5<$100	Downavg 51¢	$28.57	$55.99	+$27.42	48% 748-800 (1548)
CR CrouchPredictionsCTR	Upavg 21.3¢	$127.52	$49.81	-$77.71	47% 626-720 (1346)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 80.3¢	$18.38	$19.35	+$0.97	66% 2224-1129 (3353)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Downavg 92.7¢	$14.47	$13.97	-$0.5	63% 1554-926 (2480)
PE peepeepoopoo24<$100	Downavg 95¢	$16.96	$13.02	-$3.95	49% 624-641 (1265)
DR drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100	Upavg 23¢	$15.65	$7.65	-$0.09	62% 2576-1569 (4145)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100	Downavg 50¢	$5	$4.95	-$0.05	47% 1321-1484 (2805)
LI Little-bigCTR<$100	Upavg 48.5¢	$4.85	$4.35	-$0.5	53% 634-559 (1193)
G-Penis-Monster<$100	Downavg 56¢	$2.8	$2.82	+$0.02	44% 1290-1624 (2914)
IM imoore-40CTR<$100	Upavg 49¢	$2.45	$2.53	+$0.07	90% 247-26 (273)
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100	Upavg 15¢	$1.12	$1.08	-$0.04	48% 1485-1609 (3094)
gabigolCTR<$100	Upavg 1¢	$2.02	$1.01	-$1.01	53% 180-158 (338)

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$1,374.87

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$13.44

Record

98%

2252-45 (2297)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down

Invested

$736.99

Value

$885.43

PnL

+$177.24

Record

51%

1806-1756 (3562)

ByteBadger92CTR

Invested

$500

Value

$500

PnL

+$0

Record

56%

2370-1839 (4209)

QuantumPebble673CTR

Invested

$500

Value

$500

PnL

+$0

Record

—

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e

Down

Invested

$259.86

Value

$307.51

PnL

+$47.65

Record

59%

2945-2044 (4989)

Polkadot-Frog

Down

Invested

$256.58

Value

$253.15

PnL

+$2.65

Record

53%

1367-1231 (2598)

almach

Down

Invested

$173.33

Value

$183.18

PnL

+$9.86

Record

48%

818-877 (1695)

aswfadq1555

Down

Invested

$90.43

Value

$154.38

PnL

+$63.95

Record

49%

293-300 (593)

Hcrystallash

Down

Invested

$144.7

Value

$142.56

PnL

-$2.14

Record

58%

4542-3345 (7887)

stepahead

Down

Invested

$114.97

Value

$120.11

PnL

+$5.15

Record

54%

3908-3264 (7172)

0x954b91DD68ECA3aA4EA603ECeA83C01E8539C0e0-1783400656972ARB<$100

Invested

$107.5

Value

$90.54

PnL

-$16.96

Record

37%

202-340 (542)

Both legs:

Invested

$28.57

Value

$55.99

PnL

+$27.42

Record

48%

748-800 (1548)

CrouchPredictionsCTR

Invested

$127.52

Value

$49.81

PnL

-$77.71

Record

47%

626-720 (1346)

asdaefef<$100

Down

Invested

$18.38

Value

$19.35

PnL

+$0.97

Record

66%

2224-1129 (3353)

asidjasiodja<$100

Down

Invested

$14.47

Value

$13.97

PnL

-$0.5

Record

63%

1554-926 (2480)

peepeepoopoo24<$100

Down

Invested

$16.96

Value

$13.02

PnL

-$3.95

Record

49%

624-641 (1265)

drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100

Invested

$15.65

Value

$7.65

PnL

-$0.09

Record

62%

2576-1569 (4145)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100

Down

Invested

Value

$4.95

PnL

-$0.05

Record

47%

1321-1484 (2805)

Little-bigCTR<$100

Invested

$4.85

Value

$4.35

PnL

-$0.5

Record

53%

634-559 (1193)

G-Penis-Monster<$100

Down

Invested

$2.8

Value

$2.82

PnL

+$0.02

Record

44%

1290-1624 (2914)

imoore-40CTR<$100

Invested

$2.45

Value

$2.53

PnL

+$0.07

Record

90%

247-26 (273)

dvasdkasodkCTR<$100

Invested

$1.12

Value

$1.08

PnL

-$0.04

Record

48%

1485-1609 (3094)

gabigolCTR<$100

Invested

$2.02

Value

$1.01

PnL

-$1.01

Record

53%

180-158 (338)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Down

14 of 22 top traders (64%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.