Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET
Resolved Down. 63% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
32
Down 65%
1 arb excluded
$11.5K
-$683.89
Smart Money Signal
20 of 32 top traders (63%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Downavg 75.1¢ | $1.9K | $2.1K | +$339.77 | 51% 1806-1756 (3562) |
0X 0x50f7 | Downavg 99.9¢ | $2.0K | $2.0K | +$1.95 | 49% 883-924 (1807) |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 99¢ | $1.4K | $1.5K | +$14.64 | 98% 2252-45 (2297) |
AS aswfadq1555 | Downavg 76.2¢ | $952.6 | $1.2K | +$283.78 | 49% 293-300 (593) |
UN uninformedflowwARB<$100 | Downavg 77.4¢ | $1.2K | $1.3K | +$62.54 | 51% 1347-1269 (2616) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 77.4¢ | $975 | $1.3K | +$285.34 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 25.8¢ | $222.8 | — | -$222.8 | |
CR CrouchPredictions | Downavg 85.9¢ | $682.49 | $630.27 | -$52.22 | 47% 626-720 (1346) |
BO bosona | Downavg 81¢ | $631.46 | $599.44 | -$32.02 | 50% 4052-4009 (8061) |
MO mo-money | Downavg 92.3¢ | $581.38 | $513 | -$68.38 | 48% 822-890 (1712) |
BY ByteBadger92CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | — | -$500 | 56% 2370-1839 (4209) |
QU QuantumPebble673CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | — | -$500 | — |
AL almach | Downavg 81¢ | $448.15 | $414.64 | -$33.51 | 48% 818-877 (1695) |
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e | Downavg 86.2¢ | $301.39 | $349.65 | +$48.26 | 59% 2945-2044 (4989) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Downavg 96.3¢ | $438.21 | $343 | -$77.32 | 53% 1367-1231 (2598) |
ST stepahead | Downavg 68.8¢ | $185.35 | $186.23 | +$0.88 | 54% 3908-3264 (7172) |
PB PBot-5 | Downavg 54¢ | $83.3 | $140.74 | +$57.44 | 48% 748-800 (1548) |
RL RLWGCTR | Upavg 14¢ | $142.25 | — | -$142.25 | 66% 1764-907 (2671) |
HC Hcrystallash | Downavg 69.5¢ | $111.05 | $108 | -$3.05 | 58% 4542-3345 (7887) |
 wowitsamazing<$100 | Downavg 57.4¢ | $42 | $73.19 | +$31.19 | 45% 106-130 (236) |
PE peepeepoopoo24<$100 | Downavg 81.5¢ | $38.87 | $40 | +$1.13 | 49% 624-641 (1265) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 75.9¢ | $49.43 | $32.64 | -$0.41 | 60% 2389-1604 (3993) |
BL blue.birds<$100 | Downavg 81¢ | $28.35 | $35 | +$6.65 | 52% 4060-3799 (7859) |
 BoneOhioCTR<$100 | Upavg 19¢ | $28.5 | — | -$28.5 | 74% 1049-366 (1415) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 78.9¢ | $19.1 | $22.31 | +$3.21 | 66% 2224-1129 (3353) |
 AtomforgeCTR<$100 | Upavg 17¢ | $15.36 | — | -$15.36 | 23% 221-758 (979) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Upavg 48.2¢ | $10.43 | — | -$10.43 | 48% 2191-2368 (4559) |
Invested
$1,895.64
Value
$2.1K
PnL
+$339.77
Record
51%
1806-1756 (3562)
Invested
$1,950.97
Value
$2.0K
PnL
+$1.95
Record
49%
883-924 (1807)
Invested
$1,449.36
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$14.64
Record
98%
2252-45 (2297)
Invested
$952.6
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$283.78
Record
49%
293-300 (593)
Invested
$1,197.8
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$62.54
Record
51%
1347-1269 (2616)
Both legs:
Invested
$682.49
Value
$630.27
PnL
-$52.22
Record
47%
626-720 (1346)
Invested
$631.46
Value
$599.44
PnL
-$32.02
Record
50%
4052-4009 (8061)
Invested
$581.38
Value
$513
PnL
-$68.38
Record
48%
822-890 (1712)
Invested
$500
Value
—
PnL
-$500
Record
56%
2370-1839 (4209)
Invested
$500
Value
—
PnL
-$500
Record
—
Invested
$448.15
Value
$414.64
PnL
-$33.51
Record
48%
818-877 (1695)
Invested
$301.39
Value
$349.65
PnL
+$48.26
Record
59%
2945-2044 (4989)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$438.21
Value
$343
PnL
-$77.32
Record
53%
1367-1231 (2598)
Invested
$185.35
Value
$186.23
PnL
+$0.88
Record
54%
3908-3264 (7172)
Invested
$83.3
Value
$140.74
PnL
+$57.44
Record
48%
748-800 (1548)
Invested
$142.25
Value
—
PnL
-$142.25
Record
66%
1764-907 (2671)
Invested
$111.05
Value
$108
PnL
-$3.05
Record
58%
4542-3345 (7887)
wowitsamazing<$100Invested
$42
Value
$73.19
PnL
+$31.19
Record
45%
106-130 (236)
Invested
$38.87
Value
$40
PnL
+$1.13
Record
49%
624-641 (1265)
Invested
$49.43
Value
$32.64
PnL
-$0.41
Record
60%
2389-1604 (3993)
Invested
$28.35
Value
$35
PnL
+$6.65
Record
52%
4060-3799 (7859)
BoneOhioCTR<$100Invested
$28.5
Value
—
PnL
-$28.5
Record
74%
1049-366 (1415)
Invested
$19.1
Value
$22.31
PnL
+$3.21
Record
66%
2224-1129 (3353)
AtomforgeCTR<$100Invested
$15.36
Value
—
PnL
-$15.36
Record
23%
221-758 (979)
Invested
$10.43
Value
—
PnL
-$10.43
Record
48%
2191-2368 (4559)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
Down — $2.1K
0x50f7
Down — $2.0K
hoodquant
Down — $1.5K
aswfadq1555
Down — $1.2K
uninformedfloww
ARBArbitrage — excluded
CrouchPredictions
Down — $630.27
bosona
Down — $599.44
mo-money
Down — $513
ByteBadger92
CTRUp — $0
QuantumPebble673
CTRUp — $0