Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET
Resolved Up. 54% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
35
Up 54%
1 arb excluded
$7.9K
$159.43
Smart Money Signal
19 of 35 top traders (54%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed16 hold an outcome priced under 50%22 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
KA KARIZMATIKU | Upavg 45.3¢ | $1.6K | $2.7K | +$1.2K | 9% 15-144 (159) |
HO hoodquant | Upavg 99¢ | $1.4K | $1.5K | +$15.16 | 98% 2252-45 (2297) |
HC Hcrystallash | Upavg 85.4¢ | $772.93 | $905.31 | +$132.38 | 58% 4542-3345 (7887) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Upavg 72.9¢ | $835.5 | $742.42 | -$93.08 | 51% 1806-1756 (3562) |
BY ByteBadger92 | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | $500 | +$0 | 56% 2370-1839 (4209) |
QU QuantumPebble673 | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | $500 | +$0 | — |
ST stepahead | Upavg 58.6¢ | $475.05 | $485.03 | +$9.97 | 54% 3908-3264 (7172) |
AS aswfadq1555CTR | Downavg 58.4¢ | $372.69 | — | -$372.69 | 49% 293-300 (593) |
38 38791873984189CTR | Downavg 48¢ | $217.7 | — | -$217.7 | 48% 2191-2368 (4559) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Upavg 52.4¢ | $209.61 | $166.22 | +$16.76 | 53% 1367-1231 (2598) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR | Downavg 49¢ | $107.24 | — | -$107.24 | 48% 1171-1273 (2444) |
 gabigol<$100 | Upavg 90.3¢ | $90.96 | $98.69 | +$7.73 | 53% 180-158 (338) |
PE peepeepoopoo24ARB<$100 | Upavg 55.5¢ | $64.6 | $80 | +$15.4 | 49% 624-641 (1265) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 55.5¢ | $44.4 | $80 | +$35.6 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 16.8¢ | $20.2 | — | -$20.2 | |
AA aaa221CTR<$100 | Downavg 56.6¢ | $83.87 | — | -$83.87 | 60% 2389-1604 (3993) |
BL blue.birds<$100 | Upavg 74.8¢ | $68.35 | $71.28 | +$2.93 | 52% 4060-3799 (7859) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Upavg 77.9¢ | $70.59 | $59.2 | -$11.39 | 66% 2224-1129 (3353) |
PB PBot-5<$100 | Upavg 63.7¢ | $44 | $63 | +$19 | 48% 748-800 (1548) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100 | Downavg 20.7¢ | $35.35 | — | -$35.35 | 46% 1269-1467 (2736) |
RL RLWGCTR<$100 | Downavg 12.1¢ | $63.1 | — | -$63.1 | 66% 1764-907 (2671) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Upavg 43¢ | $36.68 | $30 | +$2.91 | 62% 2576-1569 (4145) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Upavg 82.1¢ | $23 | $28 | +$5 | 52% 1724-1588 (3312) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Upavg 77.1¢ | $20.99 | $24.18 | +$3.19 | 48% 1485-1609 (3094) |
 BoneOhioCTR<$100 | Downavg 19¢ | $14.25 | — | -$14.25 | 74% 1049-366 (1415) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Downavg 47.4¢ | $12.12 | — | -$12.12 | 53% 933-821 (1754) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100 | Upavg 66.2¢ | $10.05 | $15.18 | +$5.13 | 55% 1358-1126 (2484) |
Invested
$1,607
Value
$2.7K
PnL
+$1.2K
Record
9%
15-144 (159)
Invested
$1,446.24
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$15.16
Record
98%
2252-45 (2297)
Invested
$772.93
Value
$905.31
PnL
+$132.38
Record
58%
4542-3345 (7887)
Invested
$835.5
Value
$742.42
PnL
-$93.08
Record
51%
1806-1756 (3562)
Invested
$500
Value
$500
PnL
+$0
Record
56%
2370-1839 (4209)
Invested
$500
Value
$500
PnL
+$0
Record
—
Invested
$475.05
Value
$485.03
PnL
+$9.97
Record
54%
3908-3264 (7172)
Invested
$372.69
Value
—
PnL
-$372.69
Record
49%
293-300 (593)
Invested
$217.7
Value
—
PnL
-$217.7
Record
48%
2191-2368 (4559)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$209.61
Value
$166.22
PnL
+$16.76
Record
53%
1367-1231 (2598)
Invested
$107.24
Value
—
PnL
-$107.24
Record
48%
1171-1273 (2444)
gabigol<$100Invested
$90.96
Value
$98.69
PnL
+$7.73
Record
53%
180-158 (338)
Invested
$64.6
Value
$80
PnL
+$15.4
Record
49%
624-641 (1265)
Both legs:
Invested
$83.87
Value
—
PnL
-$83.87
Record
60%
2389-1604 (3993)
Invested
$68.35
Value
$71.28
PnL
+$2.93
Record
52%
4060-3799 (7859)
Invested
$70.59
Value
$59.2
PnL
-$11.39
Record
66%
2224-1129 (3353)
Invested
$44
Value
$63
PnL
+$19
Record
48%
748-800 (1548)
Invested
$35.35
Value
—
PnL
-$35.35
Record
46%
1269-1467 (2736)
Invested
$63.1
Value
—
PnL
-$63.1
Record
66%
1764-907 (2671)
Invested
$36.68
Value
$30
PnL
+$2.91
Record
62%
2576-1569 (4145)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$23
Value
$28
PnL
+$5
Record
52%
1724-1588 (3312)
Invested
$20.99
Value
$24.18
PnL
+$3.19
Record
48%
1485-1609 (3094)
BoneOhioCTR<$100Invested
$14.25
Value
—
PnL
-$14.25
Record
74%
1049-366 (1415)
Invested
$12.12
Value
—
PnL
-$12.12
Record
53%
933-821 (1754)
Invested
$10.05
Value
$15.18
PnL
+$5.13
Record
55%
1358-1126 (2484)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
KARIZMATIKU
Up — $2.7K
hoodquant
Up — $1.5K
Hcrystallash
Up — $905.31
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
Up — $742.42
ByteBadger92
Up — $500
QuantumPebble673
Up — $500
stepahead
Up — $485.03
aswfadq1555
CTRDown — $0
38791873984189
CTRDown — $0
Polkadot-Frog
Up — $166.22