Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET
Resolved Down. 69% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
32
Down 69%
1 arb excluded
$7.4K
-$79.79
Smart Money Signal
22 of 32 top traders (69%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%19 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO hoodquant | Downavg 98.8¢ | $1.2K | $1.2K | +$15.13 | 98% 2252-45 (2297) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Downavg 79.8¢ | $1.0K | $1.2K | +$149.53 | 51% 1806-1756 (3562) |
0X 0x50f7 | Downavg 99.9¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | +$1.59 | 49% 883-924 (1807) |
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e | Downavg 89.6¢ | $645.47 | $493 | -$7.5 | 59% 2945-2044 (4989) |
AL almach | Downavg 99.1¢ | $589.69 | $491 | -$98.69 | 48% 818-877 (1695) |
AS aswfadq1555 | Downavg 71.6¢ | $373.56 | $459.75 | +$86.19 | 49% 293-300 (593) |
QU QuantumPebble673 | Downavg 50¢ | $500 | $500 | +$0 | — |
BY ByteBadger92 | Downavg 50¢ | $500 | $500 | +$0 | 56% 2370-1839 (4209) |
CR CrouchPredictionsARB<$100 | Downavg 67.2¢ | $364.92 | $331.88 | -$33.04 | 47% 626-720 (1346) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 67.2¢ | $222.93 | $331.88 | +$108.95 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 17.7¢ | $141.99 | — | -$141.99 | |
 Polkadot-Frog | Downavg 67.2¢ | $318.66 | $306.18 | -$3.09 | 53% 1367-1231 (2598) |
PB PBot-5 | Downavg 50¢ | $80 | $160 | +$80 | 48% 748-800 (1548) |
DE devonpoll | Downavg 50¢ | $180 | $180 | -$0 | 53% 312-279 (591) |
MO mo-moneyCTR | Upavg 25¢ | $125 | — | -$125 | 48% 822-890 (1712) |
AA aaa221 | Downavg 70.6¢ | $84.36 | $119.49 | +$35.12 | 60% 2389-1604 (3993) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 92.8¢ | $90.87 | $93.28 | +$2.41 | 66% 2224-1129 (3353) |
ST stepahead<$100 | Downavg 72.6¢ | $86.01 | $81.81 | -$4.2 | 54% 3908-3264 (7172) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 89.5¢ | $87.84 | $82.91 | +$0.32 | 62% 2576-1569 (4145) |
BO bosonaCTR<$100 | Upavg 24.4¢ | $92.35 | — | -$92.35 | 50% 4052-4009 (8061) |
0X 0xcE25E214D5cfE4f459cf67F08DF581885AAE7Fdc-1777575398144<$100 | Downavg 92¢ | $41.4 | $45 | +$3.6 | 57% 82-63 (145) |
HC HcrystallashCTR<$100 | Upavg 18.4¢ | $89.01 | — | -$65.97 | 58% 4542-3345 (7887) |
PE peepeepoopoo24<$100 | Downavg 82¢ | $32.4 | $20 | -$12.4 | 49% 624-641 (1265) |
BL blue.birds<$100 | Downavg 87¢ | $26.1 | $30 | +$3.9 | 52% 4060-3799 (7859) |
PB PBot-6<$100 | Downavg 48.4¢ | $7.29 | $15.06 | +$7.77 | 50% 437-429 (866) |
 gabigolCTR<$100 | Upavg 1¢ | $4.09 | — | -$4.09 | 53% 180-158 (338) |
IM imoore-40CTR<$100 | Upavg 49¢ | $4.9 | — | -$4.9 | 90% 247-26 (273) |
Invested
$1,203.54
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$15.13
Record
98%
2252-45 (2297)
Invested
$1,024.05
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$149.53
Record
51%
1806-1756 (3562)
Invested
$1,083.39
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$1.59
Record
49%
883-924 (1807)
Invested
$645.47
Value
$493
PnL
-$7.5
Record
59%
2945-2044 (4989)
Invested
$589.69
Value
$491
PnL
-$98.69
Record
48%
818-877 (1695)
Invested
$373.56
Value
$459.75
PnL
+$86.19
Record
49%
293-300 (593)
Invested
$500
Value
$500
PnL
+$0
Record
—
Invested
$500
Value
$500
PnL
+$0
Record
56%
2370-1839 (4209)
Invested
$364.92
Value
$331.88
PnL
-$33.04
Record
47%
626-720 (1346)
Both legs:
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$318.66
Value
$306.18
PnL
-$3.09
Record
53%
1367-1231 (2598)
Invested
$80
Value
$160
PnL
+$80
Record
48%
748-800 (1548)
Invested
$180
Value
$180
PnL
-$0
Record
53%
312-279 (591)
Invested
$125
Value
—
PnL
-$125
Record
48%
822-890 (1712)
Invested
$84.36
Value
$119.49
PnL
+$35.12
Record
60%
2389-1604 (3993)
Invested
$90.87
Value
$93.28
PnL
+$2.41
Record
66%
2224-1129 (3353)
Invested
$86.01
Value
$81.81
PnL
-$4.2
Record
54%
3908-3264 (7172)
Invested
$87.84
Value
$82.91
PnL
+$0.32
Record
62%
2576-1569 (4145)
Invested
$92.35
Value
—
PnL
-$92.35
Record
50%
4052-4009 (8061)
Invested
$41.4
Value
$45
PnL
+$3.6
Record
57%
82-63 (145)
Invested
$89.01
Value
—
PnL
-$65.97
Record
58%
4542-3345 (7887)
Invested
$32.4
Value
$20
PnL
-$12.4
Record
49%
624-641 (1265)
Invested
$26.1
Value
$30
PnL
+$3.9
Record
52%
4060-3799 (7859)
Invested
$7.29
Value
$15.06
PnL
+$7.77
Record
50%
437-429 (866)
gabigolCTR<$100Invested
$4.09
Value
—
PnL
-$4.09
Record
53%
180-158 (338)
Invested
$4.9
Value
—
PnL
-$4.9
Record
90%
247-26 (273)
Chat
Market Info
Traders in this Market
hoodquant
Down — $1.2K
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
Down — $1.2K
0x50f7
Down — $1.1K
0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e
Down — $493
almach
Down — $491
aswfadq1555
Down — $459.75
QuantumPebble673
Down — $500
ByteBadger92
Down — $500
CrouchPredictions
ARBArbitrage — excluded
Polkadot-Frog
Down — $306.18