Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET
Resolved Down. 51% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
43
Down 51%
1 arb excluded
$12.7K
$-2.6K
Smart Money Signal
22 of 43 top traders (51%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed21 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR | Upavg 41.5¢ | $2.4K | — | $-1.3K | 51% 1741-1694 (3435) |
0X 0x50f7 | Downavg 99.8¢ | $2.8K | $2.8K | +$4.26 | 49% 860-907 (1767) |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 98.2¢ | $1.7K | $1.8K | +$31.55 | 98% 2209-44 (2253) |
MO mo-money | Downavg 18.2¢ | $324.82 | $1.6K | +$1.3K | 47% 787-874 (1661) |
HC Hcrystallash | Downavg 84.2¢ | $1.4K | $1.4K | +$0.18 | 58% 4516-3334 (7850) |
BO bosona | Downavg 16.7¢ | $277.82 | $1.0K | +$1.3K | 50% 4018-3992 (8010) |
 Polkadot-FrogCTR | Upavg 83.8¢ | $1.1K | — | -$817.13 | 53% 1336-1195 (2531) |
UN uninformedflowwCTR | Upavg 69¢ | $1.1K | — | -$872.48 | 52% 1296-1214 (2510) |
AS aswfadq1555CTR | Upavg 37.1¢ | $657.77 | — | -$657.77 | 49% 284-291 (575) |
 MayorMamdaniCTR | Upavg 84.7¢ | $399.01 | — | -$399.01 | 52% 1676-1557 (3233) |
BY ByteBadger92CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | — | -$500 | 56% 2370-1839 (4209) |
QU QuantumPebble673CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | — | -$500 | — |
ST stepahead | Downavg 52¢ | $439.5 | $443.77 | +$4.27 | 55% 3891-3247 (7138) |
38 38791873984189 | Downavg 47.4¢ | $449.98 | $950.18 | +$500.19 | 48% 2153-2339 (4492) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Downavg 47.5¢ | $203.66 | $423.44 | +$219.77 | 46% 610-705 (1315) |
PB PBot-5CTR | Upavg 68.5¢ | $594.87 | — | -$589.88 | 49% 727-769 (1496) |
 gabigolARB<$100 | Upavg 90.1¢ | $257.03 | $497.25 | +$240.22 | 54% 177-152 (329) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 90.1¢ | $237.51 | — | -$237.51 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 3.9¢ | $19.52 | $497.25 | +$477.73 | |
0X 0x954b91DD68ECA3aA4EA603ECeA83C01E8539C0e0-1783400656972 | Downavg 90.4¢ | $448.75 | $305.8 | -$116.31 | 37% 198-338 (536) |
 NIULAI4 | Downavg 76.3¢ | $211.27 | $277 | +$65.73 | 18% 218-1002 (1220) |
BL blue.birds | Downavg 50¢ | $189.13 | $210 | +$20.87 | 52% 4022-3759 (7781) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR | Upavg 65¢ | $163.09 | — | -$163.09 | 47% 1280-1435 (2715) |
KA KARIZMATIKUCTR | Upavg 53¢ | $187 | — | -$187 | 9% 14-143 (157) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530 | Downavg 39.3¢ | $78.95 | $182.21 | +$103.26 | 46% 1227-1428 (2655) |
 G-Penis-Monster | Downavg 25.7¢ | $94.55 | $173.89 | +$101 | 44% 1249-1571 (2820) |
 BoneOhio | Downavg 73¢ | $109.55 | $150 | +$40.45 | 74% 1022-354 (1376) |
Invested
$2,376.18
Value
—
PnL
$-1.3K
Record
51%
1741-1694 (3435)
Invested
$2,817.59
Value
$2.8K
PnL
+$4.26
Record
49%
860-907 (1767)
Invested
$1,730.38
Value
$1.8K
PnL
+$31.55
Record
98%
2209-44 (2253)
Invested
$324.82
Value
$1.6K
PnL
+$1.3K
Record
47%
787-874 (1661)
Invested
$1,378.11
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$0.18
Record
58%
4516-3334 (7850)
Invested
$277.82
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$1.3K
Record
50%
4018-3992 (8010)
Polkadot-FrogCTRInvested
$1,076.67
Value
—
PnL
-$817.13
Record
53%
1336-1195 (2531)
Invested
$1,070.37
Value
—
PnL
-$872.48
Record
52%
1296-1214 (2510)
Invested
$657.77
Value
—
PnL
-$657.77
Record
49%
284-291 (575)
MayorMamdaniCTRInvested
$399.01
Value
—
PnL
-$399.01
Record
52%
1676-1557 (3233)
Invested
$500
Value
—
PnL
-$500
Record
56%
2370-1839 (4209)
Invested
$500
Value
—
PnL
-$500
Record
—
Invested
$439.5
Value
$443.77
PnL
+$4.27
Record
55%
3891-3247 (7138)
Invested
$449.98
Value
$950.18
PnL
+$500.19
Record
48%
2153-2339 (4492)
Invested
$203.66
Value
$423.44
PnL
+$219.77
Record
46%
610-705 (1315)
Invested
$594.87
Value
—
PnL
-$589.88
Record
49%
727-769 (1496)
gabigolARB<$100Invested
$257.03
Value
$497.25
PnL
+$240.22
Record
54%
177-152 (329)
Both legs:
Invested
$448.75
Value
$305.8
PnL
-$116.31
Record
37%
198-338 (536)
NIULAI4Invested
$211.27
Value
$277
PnL
+$65.73
Record
18%
218-1002 (1220)
Invested
$189.13
Value
$210
PnL
+$20.87
Record
52%
4022-3759 (7781)
Invested
$163.09
Value
—
PnL
-$163.09
Record
47%
1280-1435 (2715)
Invested
$187
Value
—
PnL
-$187
Record
9%
14-143 (157)
Invested
$78.95
Value
$182.21
PnL
+$103.26
Record
46%
1227-1428 (2655)
G-Penis-MonsterInvested
$94.55
Value
$173.89
PnL
+$101
Record
44%
1249-1571 (2820)
BoneOhioInvested
$109.55
Value
$150
PnL
+$40.45
Record
74%
1022-354 (1376)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
CTRUp — $0
0x50f7
Down — $2.8K
hoodquant
Down — $1.8K
mo-money
Down — $1.6K
Hcrystallash
Down — $1.4K
bosona
Down — $1.0K
Polkadot-Frog
CTRUp — $0
uninformedfloww
CTRUp — $0
aswfadq1555
CTRUp — $0
MayorMamdani
CTRUp — $0