Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET
Resolved Down. 72% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
29
Down 72%
2 arb excluded
$6.0K
$197.98
Smart Money Signal
21 of 29 top traders (72%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%19 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UN uninformedfloww | Downavg 76.1¢ | $1.6K | $2.0K | +$485.95 | 52% 1296-1214 (2510) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Downavg 63.8¢ | $994.68 | $1.3K | +$312.21 | 51% 1741-1694 (3435) |
BY ByteBadger92CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | — | -$500 | 56% 2370-1839 (4209) |
QU QuantumPebble673CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | — | -$500 | — |
 Polkadot-Frog | Downavg 94.6¢ | $1.2K | $435.72 | -$90.96 | 53% 1336-1195 (2531) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Downavg 55.2¢ | $212.53 | $384.85 | +$172.32 | 46% 610-705 (1315) |
38 38791873984189 | Downavg 47.9¢ | $323.19 | $674.63 | +$351.44 | 48% 2153-2339 (4492) |
AS aswfadq1555 | Downavg 94.7¢ | $438.28 | $288 | -$150.28 | 49% 284-291 (575) |
HC Hcrystallash | Downavg 66.5¢ | $125.07 | $149.63 | +$25.19 | 58% 4516-3334 (7850) |
MO mo-moneyARB<$100 | Upavg 18.5¢ | $141.3 | $78 | -$63.3 | 47% 787-874 (1661) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 49¢ | $38.22 | $78 | +$39.78 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 18.5¢ | $103.08 | — | -$103.08 | |
BO bosonaARB<$100 | Upavg 18.4¢ | $118.2 | $25.67 | -$92.53 | 50% 4018-3992 (8010) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 18.4¢ | $109.73 | — | -$109.73 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 33¢ | $8.47 | $25.67 | +$17.2 | |
PE peepeepoopoo24<$100 | Downavg 89.2¢ | $84.02 | $86.67 | +$2.65 | 49% 600-626 (1226) |
AL almachCTR<$100 | Upavg 15.8¢ | $86.4 | — | -$86.4 | 48% 784-859 (1643) |
ST stepahead<$100 | Downavg 56.1¢ | $56.52 | $68.82 | +$12.31 | 55% 3891-3247 (7138) |
AA aaa221 | Downavg 43¢ | $61.18 | $142.27 | +$81.09 | 60% 2327-1560 (3887) |
 ohioism<$100 | Downavg 63.2¢ | $38.92 | $61.54 | +$22.62 | 48% 1250-1346 (2596) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 88.8¢ | $55.55 | $59.07 | +$3.67 | 67% 2180-1089 (3269) |
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100 | Downavg 43.8¢ | $21.04 | $48 | +$26.96 | 59% 2924-2024 (4948) |
 G-Penis-Monster<$100 | Downavg 64.2¢ | $26.33 | $41 | +$14.67 | 44% 1249-1571 (2820) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100 | Downavg 52.4¢ | $27.3 | $45.01 | +$17.71 | 46% 1227-1428 (2655) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 89.4¢ | $61.99 | $24.29 | +$2.67 | 62% 2512-1527 (4039) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Downavg 86¢ | $19.83 | $23.05 | +$3.22 | 48% 1442-1566 (3008) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Downavg 47.6¢ | $17.24 | $36.23 | +$18.99 | 53% 925-815 (1740) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Downavg 84.3¢ | $10.16 | $12.05 | +$1.89 | 63% 1521-902 (2423) |
PB PBot-6<$100 | Downavg 47¢ | $10.79 | $22.96 | +$12.17 | 51% 422-410 (832) |
Invested
$1,551.25
Value
$2.0K
PnL
+$485.95
Record
52%
1296-1214 (2510)
Invested
$994.68
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$312.21
Record
51%
1741-1694 (3435)
Invested
$500
Value
—
PnL
-$500
Record
56%
2370-1839 (4209)
Invested
$500
Value
—
PnL
-$500
Record
—
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$1,234.64
Value
$435.72
PnL
-$90.96
Record
53%
1336-1195 (2531)
Invested
$212.53
Value
$384.85
PnL
+$172.32
Record
46%
610-705 (1315)
Invested
$323.19
Value
$674.63
PnL
+$351.44
Record
48%
2153-2339 (4492)
Invested
$438.28
Value
$288
PnL
-$150.28
Record
49%
284-291 (575)
Invested
$125.07
Value
$149.63
PnL
+$25.19
Record
58%
4516-3334 (7850)
Invested
$141.3
Value
$78
PnL
-$63.3
Record
47%
787-874 (1661)
Both legs:
Invested
$118.2
Value
$25.67
PnL
-$92.53
Record
50%
4018-3992 (8010)
Both legs:
Invested
$84.02
Value
$86.67
PnL
+$2.65
Record
49%
600-626 (1226)
Invested
$86.4
Value
—
PnL
-$86.4
Record
48%
784-859 (1643)
Invested
$56.52
Value
$68.82
PnL
+$12.31
Record
55%
3891-3247 (7138)
Invested
$61.18
Value
$142.27
PnL
+$81.09
Record
60%
2327-1560 (3887)
ohioism<$100Invested
$38.92
Value
$61.54
PnL
+$22.62
Record
48%
1250-1346 (2596)
Invested
$55.55
Value
$59.07
PnL
+$3.67
Record
67%
2180-1089 (3269)
Invested
$21.04
Value
$48
PnL
+$26.96
Record
59%
2924-2024 (4948)
G-Penis-Monster<$100Invested
$26.33
Value
$41
PnL
+$14.67
Record
44%
1249-1571 (2820)
Invested
$27.3
Value
$45.01
PnL
+$17.71
Record
46%
1227-1428 (2655)
Invested
$61.99
Value
$24.29
PnL
+$2.67
Record
62%
2512-1527 (4039)
Invested
$19.83
Value
$23.05
PnL
+$3.22
Record
48%
1442-1566 (3008)
Invested
$17.24
Value
$36.23
PnL
+$18.99
Record
53%
925-815 (1740)
Invested
$10.16
Value
$12.05
PnL
+$1.89
Record
63%
1521-902 (2423)
Invested
$10.79
Value
$22.96
PnL
+$12.17
Record
51%
422-410 (832)
Chat
Market Info
Traders in this Market
uninformedfloww
Down — $2.0K
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
Down — $1.3K
ByteBadger92
CTRUp — $0
QuantumPebble673
CTRUp — $0
Polkadot-Frog
Down — $435.72
CrouchPredictions
Down — $384.85
38791873984189
Down — $674.63
aswfadq1555
Down — $288
Hcrystallash
Down — $149.63
mo-money
ARBArbitrage — excluded