Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET
Resolved Down. 66% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
29
Down 66%
2 arb excluded
$7.8K
-$284.68
Smart Money Signal
19 of 29 top traders (66%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HC Hcrystallash | Downavg 93.5¢ | $1.7K | $1.6K | -$45.35 | 58% 4516-3334 (7850) |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 98.5¢ | $1.5K | $1.5K | +$22.33 | 98% 2209-44 (2253) |
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e | Downavg 92.8¢ | $1.0K | $1.1K | +$80.43 | 59% 2924-2024 (4948) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Downavg 61.7¢ | $939.03 | $944.6 | +$70.67 | 51% 1741-1694 (3435) |
UN uninformedfloww | Downavg 70.1¢ | $713.88 | $1.0K | +$291.64 | 52% 1296-1214 (2510) |
AS aswfadq1555 | Downavg 80.8¢ | $648.37 | $521.16 | -$127.21 | 49% 284-291 (575) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Downavg 60.5¢ | $384.13 | $525.99 | +$141.87 | 46% 610-705 (1315) |
BY ByteBadger92CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | — | -$500 | 56% 2370-1839 (4209) |
QU QuantumPebble673CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | — | -$500 | — |
AS asdaefef | Downavg 87.5¢ | $148.17 | $152.97 | +$4.8 | 67% 2180-1089 (3269) |
ST stepahead<$100 | Downavg 61.8¢ | $82.42 | $84.73 | +$2.31 | 55% 3891-3247 (7138) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Downavg 88¢ | $435.52 | $70.33 | -$17.16 | 53% 1336-1195 (2531) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025ARB<$100 | Upavg 48.5¢ | $75.55 | $41 | -$34.55 | 47% 1280-1435 (2715) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 48.5¢ | $50.9 | — | -$50.9 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 60.1¢ | $24.65 | $41 | +$16.35 | |
MO mo-moneyCTR | Upavg 4.6¢ | $250.69 | — | +$169.95 | 47% 787-874 (1661) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530ARB<$100 | Downavg 61.7¢ | $58.6 | $60 | +$1.4 | 46% 1227-1428 (2655) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 61.7¢ | $37 | $60 | +$23 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 36¢ | $21.6 | — | -$21.6 | |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 51.1¢ | $32.41 | $62.3 | +$29.89 | 60% 2327-1560 (3887) |
PE peepeepoopoo24<$100 | Downavg 59.5¢ | $29.95 | $40 | +$10.05 | 49% 600-626 (1226) |
 ohioism<$100 | Downavg 48¢ | $31.8 | $40 | +$8.2 | 48% 1250-1346 (2596) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Downavg 84.3¢ | $31.34 | $33.77 | +$2.59 | 48% 1442-1566 (3008) |
AL almachCTR<$100 | Upavg 1.5¢ | $13.12 | — | -$13.12 | 48% 784-859 (1643) |
 gabigolCTR<$100 | Upavg 2¢ | $11.59 | — | -$11.59 | 54% 177-152 (329) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 75.2¢ | $95.35 | $11.93 | +$12.21 | 62% 2512-1527 (4039) |
BO bosonaCTR | Upavg 2¢ | $403.51 | — | +$96.05 | 50% 4018-3992 (8010) |
BL blue.birds<$100 | Downavg 80¢ | $6.89 | $8 | +$1.11 | 52% 4022-3759 (7781) |
 G-Penis-Monster<$100 | Downavg 66¢ | $5.65 | $5.15 | -$0.5 | 44% 1249-1571 (2820) |
Invested
$1,683.29
Value
$1.6K
PnL
-$45.35
Record
58%
4516-3334 (7850)
Invested
$1,450.67
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$22.33
Record
98%
2209-44 (2253)
Invested
$1,031.7
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$80.43
Record
59%
2924-2024 (4948)
Invested
$939.03
Value
$944.6
PnL
+$70.67
Record
51%
1741-1694 (3435)
Invested
$713.88
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$291.64
Record
52%
1296-1214 (2510)
Invested
$648.37
Value
$521.16
PnL
-$127.21
Record
49%
284-291 (575)
Invested
$384.13
Value
$525.99
PnL
+$141.87
Record
46%
610-705 (1315)
Invested
$500
Value
—
PnL
-$500
Record
56%
2370-1839 (4209)
Invested
$500
Value
—
PnL
-$500
Record
—
Invested
$148.17
Value
$152.97
PnL
+$4.8
Record
67%
2180-1089 (3269)
Invested
$82.42
Value
$84.73
PnL
+$2.31
Record
55%
3891-3247 (7138)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$435.52
Value
$70.33
PnL
-$17.16
Record
53%
1336-1195 (2531)
Invested
$75.55
Value
$41
PnL
-$34.55
Record
47%
1280-1435 (2715)
Both legs:
Invested
$250.69
Value
—
PnL
+$169.95
Record
47%
787-874 (1661)
Invested
$58.6
Value
$60
PnL
+$1.4
Record
46%
1227-1428 (2655)
Both legs:
Invested
$32.41
Value
$62.3
PnL
+$29.89
Record
60%
2327-1560 (3887)
Invested
$29.95
Value
$40
PnL
+$10.05
Record
49%
600-626 (1226)
ohioism<$100Invested
$31.8
Value
$40
PnL
+$8.2
Record
48%
1250-1346 (2596)
Invested
$31.34
Value
$33.77
PnL
+$2.59
Record
48%
1442-1566 (3008)
Invested
$13.12
Value
—
PnL
-$13.12
Record
48%
784-859 (1643)
gabigolCTR<$100Invested
$11.59
Value
—
PnL
-$11.59
Record
54%
177-152 (329)
Invested
$95.35
Value
$11.93
PnL
+$12.21
Record
62%
2512-1527 (4039)
Invested
$403.51
Value
—
PnL
+$96.05
Record
50%
4018-3992 (8010)
Invested
$6.89
Value
$8
PnL
+$1.11
Record
52%
4022-3759 (7781)
G-Penis-Monster<$100Invested
$5.65
Value
$5.15
PnL
-$0.5
Record
44%
1249-1571 (2820)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
Hcrystallash
Down — $1.6K
hoodquant
Down — $1.5K
0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e
Down — $1.1K
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
Down — $944.6
uninformedfloww
Down — $1.0K
aswfadq1555
Down — $521.16
CrouchPredictions
Down — $525.99
ByteBadger92
CTRUp — $0
QuantumPebble673
CTRUp — $0
asdaefef
Down — $152.97