Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET
Resolved Down. 72% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
29
Down 75%
2 arb excluded
$7.7K
-$315.01
Smart Money Signal
21 of 29 top traders (72%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Downavg 60¢ | $2.1K | $2.2K | +$121.76 | 51% 1741-1694 (3435) |
HC Hcrystallash | Downavg 93.3¢ | $1.4K | $1.5K | +$98.39 | 58% 4516-3334 (7850) |
AS aswfadq1555 | Downavg 70.3¢ | $1.3K | $1.1K | -$195.41 | 49% 284-291 (575) |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 98.9¢ | $840.96 | $849.98 | +$9.02 | 98% 2209-44 (2253) |
BY ByteBadger92CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | — | -$500 | 56% 2370-1839 (4209) |
QU QuantumPebble673CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | — | -$500 | — |
UN uninformedfloww | Downavg 54¢ | $444.41 | $817.86 | +$373.45 | 52% 1296-1214 (2510) |
AL almach | Downavg 44¢ | $135.75 | $248.17 | +$134.41 | 48% 784-859 (1643) |
 Polkadot-FrogARB<$100 | Upavg 38.4¢ | $786.46 | $209 | -$19.94 | 53% 1336-1195 (2531) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 53.9¢ | $112.55 | $209 | +$142.49 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 38.4¢ | $180.26 | — | -$162.43 | |
MO mo-money | Downavg 52¢ | $198.95 | $153.45 | +$59.88 | 47% 787-874 (1661) |
LI Little-big | Downavg 55.2¢ | $69.2 | $125.36 | +$56.16 | 53% 620-540 (1160) |
AA aaa221 | Downavg 54.4¢ | $102.85 | $141.58 | +$38.72 | 60% 2327-1560 (3887) |
ST stepaheadARB<$100 | Downavg 63¢ | $113.05 | $98.14 | -$14.91 | 55% 3891-3247 (7138) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 63¢ | $61.84 | $98.14 | +$36.3 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 23.2¢ | $51.21 | — | -$51.21 | |
 wowitsamazing<$100 | Downavg 52.1¢ | $39 | $74.81 | +$35.81 | 45% 101-124 (225) |
PE peepeepoopoo24<$100 | Downavg 76¢ | $58.2 | $60 | +$1.8 | 49% 600-626 (1226) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 63.6¢ | $45.81 | $52 | +$6.19 | 67% 2180-1089 (3269) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100 | Upavg 37.6¢ | $43.43 | — | -$28.77 | 62% 2512-1527 (4039) |
BO bosona | Downavg 79¢ | $250.11 | $35 | -$19.54 | 50% 4018-3992 (8010) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100 | Downavg 56.7¢ | $19.23 | $22.28 | +$3.05 | 47% 1280-1435 (2715) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Downavg 71.1¢ | $19.31 | $16.04 | -$1.43 | 48% 1442-1566 (3008) |
 G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100 | Upavg 34.2¢ | $8.89 | — | -$8.89 | 44% 1249-1571 (2820) |
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100 | Upavg 27¢ | $8.1 | — | -$8.1 | 59% 2924-2024 (4948) |
IM imoore-40<$100 | Downavg 49¢ | $4.9 | $5 | +$0.1 | 90% 238-26 (264) |
PB PBot-5<$100 | Downavg 55¢ | $5.5 | $10 | +$4.5 | 49% 727-769 (1496) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100 | Downavg 72¢ | $3.6 | $5 | +$1.4 | 46% 1227-1428 (2655) |
Invested
$2,053.94
Value
$2.2K
PnL
+$121.76
Record
51%
1741-1694 (3435)
Invested
$1,375.45
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$98.39
Record
58%
4516-3334 (7850)
Invested
$1,302.67
Value
$1.1K
PnL
-$195.41
Record
49%
284-291 (575)
Invested
$840.96
Value
$849.98
PnL
+$9.02
Record
98%
2209-44 (2253)
Invested
$500
Value
—
PnL
-$500
Record
56%
2370-1839 (4209)
Invested
$500
Value
—
PnL
-$500
Record
—
Invested
$444.41
Value
$817.86
PnL
+$373.45
Record
52%
1296-1214 (2510)
Invested
$135.75
Value
$248.17
PnL
+$134.41
Record
48%
784-859 (1643)
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100Invested
$786.46
Value
$209
PnL
-$19.94
Record
53%
1336-1195 (2531)
Both legs:
Invested
$198.95
Value
$153.45
PnL
+$59.88
Record
47%
787-874 (1661)
Invested
$69.2
Value
$125.36
PnL
+$56.16
Record
53%
620-540 (1160)
Invested
$102.85
Value
$141.58
PnL
+$38.72
Record
60%
2327-1560 (3887)
Invested
$113.05
Value
$98.14
PnL
-$14.91
Record
55%
3891-3247 (7138)
Both legs:
wowitsamazing<$100Invested
$39
Value
$74.81
PnL
+$35.81
Record
45%
101-124 (225)
Invested
$58.2
Value
$60
PnL
+$1.8
Record
49%
600-626 (1226)
Invested
$45.81
Value
$52
PnL
+$6.19
Record
67%
2180-1089 (3269)
Invested
$43.43
Value
—
PnL
-$28.77
Record
62%
2512-1527 (4039)
Invested
$250.11
Value
$35
PnL
-$19.54
Record
50%
4018-3992 (8010)
Invested
$19.23
Value
$22.28
PnL
+$3.05
Record
47%
1280-1435 (2715)
Invested
$19.31
Value
$16.04
PnL
-$1.43
Record
48%
1442-1566 (3008)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100Invested
$8.89
Value
—
PnL
-$8.89
Record
44%
1249-1571 (2820)
Invested
$8.1
Value
—
PnL
-$8.1
Record
59%
2924-2024 (4948)
Invested
$4.9
Value
$5
PnL
+$0.1
Record
90%
238-26 (264)
Invested
$5.5
Value
$10
PnL
+$4.5
Record
49%
727-769 (1496)
Invested
$3.6
Value
$5
PnL
+$1.4
Record
46%
1227-1428 (2655)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
Down — $2.2K
Hcrystallash
Down — $1.5K
aswfadq1555
Down — $1.1K
hoodquant
Down — $849.98
ByteBadger92
CTRUp — $0
QuantumPebble673
CTRUp — $0
uninformedfloww
Down — $817.86
almach
Down — $248.17
Polkadot-Frog
ARBArbitrage — excluded
mo-money
Down — $153.45