Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET

Resolved Up. 71% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 71%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.7K

Combined PnL

-$305.33

Smart Money Signal

25 of 35 top traders (71%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%23 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up25 traders

Total Value$5.2K

Total Shares5,176

Combined PnL+$668.73

Down10 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares1,632

Combined PnL-$974.06

Up — 71%Down — 29%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Upavg 51¢	$1.2K	$1.4K	+$172.95	51% 1741-1694 (3435)
CR CrouchPredictions	Upavg 60.4¢	$686.1	$775.18	+$89.09	46% 610-705 (1315)
Polkadot-Frog	Upavg 45.9¢	$433.73	$534.02	+$100.29	53% 1336-1195 (2531)
HC Hcrystallash	Upavg 56.3¢	$448.79	$514.55	+$66.54	58% 4516-3334 (7850)
QU QuantumPebble673ARB<$100	Downavg 50¢	$500	$500	+$0	—
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$250	—	-$250
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$250	$500	+$250
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Downavg 50¢	$500	$500	+$0	56% 2370-1839 (4209)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$250	—	-$250
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$250	$500	+$250
0X 0x954b91DD68ECA3aA4EA603ECeA83C01E8539C0e0-1783400656972	Upavg 93.7¢	$389.91	$415.92	+$26.01	37% 198-338 (536)
ST stepahead	Upavg 70.6¢	$328.79	$354.05	+$25.26	55% 3891-3247 (7138)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e	Upavg 91.8¢	$257.06	$280	+$22.94	59% 2924-2024 (4948)
AS aswfadq1555ARB<$100	Upavg 69.7¢	$392.25	$407.21	+$14.96	49% 284-291 (575)
└ Up leg	Upavg 69.7¢	$283.82	$407.21	+$123.39
└ Down leg	Downavg 75.3¢	$108.43	—	-$108.43
PB PBot-5	Upavg 59.6¢	$118.98	$199.51	+$80.53	49% 727-769 (1496)
DE devonpollARB<$100	Downavg 50¢	$180	$146.25	-$20.02	53% 304-271 (575)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$90	—	-$90
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$73.13	$146.25	+$69.98
BO bosona	Upavg 75.7¢	$125.72	$137	+$11.28	50% 4018-3992 (8010)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR	Downavg 48.8¢	$102.55	—	-$102.55	48% 1139-1229 (2368)
AS asdaefef	Upavg 75.8¢	$103.86	$91.14	-$9.66	67% 2180-1089 (3269)
BL blue.birds<$100	Upavg 52.6¢	$66.08	$82	+$15.92	52% 4022-3759 (7781)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100	Downavg 43.7¢	$52.4	—	-$52.4	46% 1227-1428 (2655)
MO mo-money<$100	Upavg 80.6¢	$69.51	$64.85	-$4.66	47% 787-874 (1661)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Upavg 42.3¢	$67.3	$51	+$18.69	62% 2512-1527 (4039)
NIULAI4<$100	Upavg 94.1¢	$48.91	$52	+$3.09	18% 218-1002 (1220)
ohioism<$100	Upavg 44.5¢	$42.25	$45	+$31.1	48% 1250-1346 (2596)
0X 0xcE25E214D5cfE4f459cf67F08DF581885AAE7Fdc-1777575398144<$100	Upavg 89¢	$35.13	$39.46	+$4.33	57% 81-60 (141)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Upavg 95.3¢	$34.76	$31.24	-$3.43	63% 1521-902 (2423)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100	Upavg 66.4¢	$24.8	$27	+$10.66	47% 1280-1435 (2715)
G-Penis-Monster<$100	Upavg 64¢	$16	$25	+$9	44% 1249-1571 (2820)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Invested

$1,225.09

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$172.95

Record

51%

1741-1694 (3435)

CrouchPredictions

Invested

$686.1

Value

$775.18

PnL

+$89.09

Record

46%

610-705 (1315)

Polkadot-Frog

Invested

$433.73

Value

$534.02

PnL

+$100.29

Record

53%

1336-1195 (2531)

Hcrystallash

Invested

$448.79

Value

$514.55

PnL

+$66.54

Record

58%

4516-3334 (7850)

QuantumPebble673ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$500

Value

$500

PnL

+$0

Record

—

Both legs:

Invested

$500

Value

$500

PnL

+$0

Record

56%

2370-1839 (4209)

Both legs:

Down$25050¢-$250

Up$25050¢+$250

0x954b91DD68ECA3aA4EA603ECeA83C01E8539C0e0-1783400656972

Invested

$389.91

Value

$415.92

PnL

+$26.01

Record

37%

198-338 (536)

stepahead

Invested

$328.79

Value

$354.05

PnL

+$25.26

Record

55%

3891-3247 (7138)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e

Invested

$257.06

Value

$280

PnL

+$22.94

Record

59%

2924-2024 (4948)

aswfadq1555ARB<$100

Invested

$392.25

Value

$407.21

PnL

+$14.96

Record

49%

284-291 (575)

Both legs:

Up$283.8269.7¢+$123.39

Down$108.4375.3¢-$108.43

PBot-5

Invested

$118.98

Value

$199.51

PnL

+$80.53

Record

49%

727-769 (1496)

devonpollARB<$100

Down

Invested

$180

Value

$146.25

PnL

-$20.02

Record

53%

304-271 (575)

Both legs:

Down$9050¢-$90

Up$73.1350¢+$69.98

bosona

Invested

$125.72

Value

$137

PnL

+$11.28

Record

50%

4018-3992 (8010)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR

Down

Invested

$102.55

Value

—

PnL

-$102.55

Record

48%

1139-1229 (2368)

asdaefef

Invested

$103.86

Value

$91.14

PnL

-$9.66

Record

67%

2180-1089 (3269)

blue.birds<$100

Invested

$66.08

Value

$82

PnL

+$15.92

Record

52%

4022-3759 (7781)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$52.4

Value

—

PnL

-$52.4

Record

46%

1227-1428 (2655)

mo-money<$100

Invested

$69.51

Value

$64.85

PnL

-$4.66

Record

47%

787-874 (1661)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Invested

$67.3

Value

$51

PnL

+$18.69

Record

62%

2512-1527 (4039)

NIULAI4<$100

Invested

$48.91

Value

$52

PnL

+$3.09

Record

18%

218-1002 (1220)

ohioism<$100

Invested

$42.25

Value

$45

PnL

+$31.1

Record

48%

1250-1346 (2596)

0xcE25E214D5cfE4f459cf67F08DF581885AAE7Fdc-1777575398144<$100

Invested

$35.13

Value

$39.46

PnL

+$4.33

Record

57%

81-60 (141)

asidjasiodja<$100

Invested

$34.76

Value

$31.24

PnL

-$3.43

Record

63%

1521-902 (2423)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100

Invested

$24.8

Value

$27

PnL

+$10.66

Record

47%

1280-1435 (2715)

G-Penis-Monster<$100

Invested

$16

Value

$25

PnL

+$9

Record

44%

1249-1571 (2820)

Smart Money Signal

25 of 35 top traders (71%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%23 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xafbc0b70...8f1c40

Slug

btc-updown-15m-1794490200

Traders in this Market

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Up — $1.4K

+$172.95

CrouchPredictions

Up — $775.18

+$89.09

Polkadot-Frog

Up — $534.02

+$100.29

Hcrystallash

Up — $514.55

+$66.54

QuantumPebble673

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$0

ByteBadger92

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$0

0x954b91DD68ECA3aA4EA603ECeA83C01E8539C0e0-1783400656972

Up — $415.92

+$26.01

stepahead

Up — $354.05

+$25.26

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e

Up — $280

aswfadq1555

Arbitrage — excluded