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Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET

30 of 35 top Polymarket traders hold Down (86%) · Down at 100¢ · $9K held · ended Nov 12

Up<1¢Down>99¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket
SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

35

Down 86%

Total Value

$8.7K

Combined PnL

$1.4K

Smart Money Entry

75.3¢ → 100¢

+33% since entry · 30 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

  • Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

30 of 35 top traders (86%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%18 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%
Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down30 traders
Total Value$8.7K
Total Shares8,732
Combined PnL+$1.5K
Up5 traders
Total Value$6.09
Total Shares992
Combined PnL-$77.84
Down — 86%Up — 14%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

27 traders

Top 2 hold 34%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

77% of non-arb traders are on Down. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 34% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians
sharpDown 80% · 5
Aligned
ctrDown 84% · 19
Aligned
Top 1000Down 77% · 35
Aligned
Polkadot-Frog
Down

Invested

$1,912.78

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$4.77

Record

53%

1297-1168 (2465)

0X
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
Down

Invested

$917.02

Value

$971.63

PnL

+$306.64

Record

51%

1663-1626 (3289)

0X
0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710
Down

Invested

$1,090.54

Value

$892.9

PnL

-$95.72

Record

37%

598-1014 (1612)

0X
0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e
Down

Invested

$621.71

Value

$754.36

PnL

+$132.66

Record

59%

2910-2008 (4918)

AL
almach
Down

Invested

$1,398.62

Value

$737.48

PnL

+$97.15

Record

47%

750-851 (1601)

MO
mo-money
Down

Invested

$852.11

Value

$533.7

PnL

+$81.59

Record

46%

754-869 (1623)

QU
QuantumPebble673
Down

Invested

$500

Value

$501

PnL

+$1

Record

—

BY
ByteBadger92
Down

Invested

$500

Value

$501

PnL

+$1

Record

56%

2343-1812 (4155)

HC
Hcrystallash
Down

Invested

$271.49

Value

$485.78

PnL

+$214.29

Record

57%

4495-3324 (7819)

CR
CrouchPredictions
Down

Invested

$265.64

Value

$479.02

PnL

+$213.38

Record

46%

594-689 (1283)

DE
devonpoll
Down

Invested

$180

Value

$180.36

PnL

+$0.36

Record

52%

274-257 (531)

ST
stepahead
Down

Invested

$148.25

Value

$169.69

PnL

+$21.44

Record

55%

3874-3232 (7106)

BO
bosona
Down

Invested

$617.12

Value

$155.5

PnL

+$153.15

Record

50%

3983-3986 (7969)

LI
Little-big
Down

Invested

$69.99

Value

$145.04

PnL

+$75.05

Record

53%

602-537 (1139)

AA
aaa221
Down

Invested

$57.21

Value

$103.24

PnL

+$46.03

Record

60%

2276-1514 (3790)

38
38791873984189
Down

Invested

$49.76

Value

$102.82

PnL

+$53.06

Record

48%

2099-2308 (4407)

0X
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
Down

Invested

$47.45

Value

$101.61

PnL

+$54.16

Record

48%

1106-1197 (2303)

PE
peepeepoopoo24<$100
Down

Invested

$70.15

Value

$97.6

PnL

+$27.45

Record

49%

586-614 (1200)

0X
0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100
Down

Invested

$72.45

Value

$89.33

PnL

+$16.88

Record

47%

1241-1387 (2628)

PB
PBot-5<$100
Down

Invested

$64.71

Value

$75.03

PnL

+$10.32

Record

48%

695-751 (1446)

DR
drfc4eybh7i8<$100
Down

Invested

$54.55

Value

$55.83

PnL

+$1.28

Record

62%

2406-1470 (3876)

0X
0x954b91DD68ECA3aA4EA603ECeA83C01E8539C0e0-1783400656972<$100
Down

Invested

$44.5

Value

$51.88

PnL

+$7.38

Record

37%

195-338 (533)

AS
asdaefef<$100
Down

Invested

$33.77

Value

$49.01

PnL

+$15.24

Record

66%

2096-1059 (3155)

0X
0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100
Down

Invested

$31.2

Value

$39.64

PnL

+$8.44

Record

46%

1190-1388 (2578)

GH
ghorrock<$100
Down

Invested

$17.23

Value

$35.89

PnL

+$18.65

Record

53%

920-807 (1727)

Chat

EV Calculator

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—
Expected ROIenter your estimate
Max Profit
+$0.09
Max Loss
-$100.00
Shares
100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.

Market Info

Condition ID
0xa9b55b9d...9ab757
Slug
btc-updown-15m-1794483000

Traders in this Market

Polkadot-Frog

Down — $1.3K

+$4.77
0X

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down — $971.63

+$306.64
0X

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710

Down — $892.9

-$95.72
0X

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e

Down — $754.36

+$132.66
AL

almach

Down — $737.48

+$97.15
MO

mo-money

Down — $533.7

+$81.59
QU

QuantumPebble673

Down — $501

+$1
BY

ByteBadger92

Down — $501

+$1
HC

Hcrystallash

Down — $485.78

+$214.29
CR

CrouchPredictions

Down — $479.02

+$213.38
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