Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET
Resolved Down. 69% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
29
Down 69%
1 arb excluded
$3.9K
-$682.67
Smart Money Signal
20 of 29 top traders (69%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%19 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UN uninformedfloww | Downavg 69.3¢ | $860 | $1.2K | +$380.74 | 50% 1101-1104 (2205) |
HC Hcrystallash | Downavg 89.8¢ | $906.35 | $929.8 | +$26.27 | 57% 4476-3317 (7793) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Downavg 73.7¢ | $527.61 | $603.55 | +$75.95 | 46% 576-676 (1252) |
BY ByteBadger92CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | — | -$500 | 56% 2341-1812 (4153) |
QU QuantumPebble673CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | — | -$500 | — |
AS aswfadq1555ARB<$100 | Downavg 50.6¢ | $155.81 | $186.5 | +$30.69 | 49% 271-280 (551) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50.6¢ | $94.41 | $186.5 | +$92.09 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 33.4¢ | $61.39 | — | -$61.39 | |
 Polkadot-Frog | Downavg 64.1¢ | $161.06 | $162.08 | +$1.02 | 53% 1264-1138 (2402) |
ST stepahead | Downavg 65.7¢ | $121.81 | $134.13 | +$12.32 | 54% 3852-3222 (7074) |
MO mo-moneyCTR | Upavg 30¢ | $108.56 | — | -$108.56 | 46% 731-854 (1585) |
AA aaa221 | Downavg 87.3¢ | $96.51 | $110.51 | +$14 | 60% 2210-1484 (3694) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530 | Downavg 69.3¢ | $123.5 | $155 | +$31.5 | 46% 1152-1359 (2511) |
LI Little-bigCTR<$100 | Upavg 50¢ | $75 | — | -$75 | 53% 582-524 (1106) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 70.6¢ | $77.72 | $73.19 | -$3.8 | 67% 2047-1024 (3071) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Downavg 68.3¢ | $39.89 | $58.4 | +$18.51 | 51% 1494-1420 (2914) |
 ohioism<$100 | Downavg 67.6¢ | $45.45 | $40 | -$3 | 48% 1183-1263 (2446) |
PE peepeepoopoo24<$100 | Downavg 92.5¢ | $46.16 | $37.24 | -$8.92 | 49% 570-602 (1172) |
 wowitsamazing<$100 | Downavg 50.6¢ | $37.5 | $74.12 | +$36.62 | 44% 95-120 (215) |
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100 | Upavg 52.6¢ | $70.75 | — | -$70.75 | 59% 2906-2005 (4911) |
AL almach<$100 | Downavg 92¢ | $31.37 | $25.71 | -$5.66 | 47% 731-834 (1565) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Downavg 92.4¢ | $18.01 | $19.5 | +$1.49 | 47% 1342-1509 (2851) |
FL flippingsharks<$100 | Downavg 48.1¢ | $15.1 | $31.4 | +$16.3 | 37% 417-704 (1121) |
BL blue.birds<$100 | Downavg 67¢ | $16.79 | $19.69 | +$2.9 | 52% 3955-3700 (7655) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Downavg 92¢ | $11.7 | $12.72 | +$1.02 | 62% 1422-863 (2285) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100 | Upavg 50.7¢ | $11 | — | -$11 | 55% 1208-984 (2192) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100 | Downavg 42¢ | $6.55 | $15.6 | +$9.05 | 47% 1200-1358 (2558) |
Invested
$860
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$380.74
Record
50%
1101-1104 (2205)
Invested
$906.35
Value
$929.8
PnL
+$26.27
Record
57%
4476-3317 (7793)
Invested
$527.61
Value
$603.55
PnL
+$75.95
Record
46%
576-676 (1252)
Invested
$500
Value
—
PnL
-$500
Record
56%
2341-1812 (4153)
Invested
$500
Value
—
PnL
-$500
Record
—
Invested
$155.81
Value
$186.5
PnL
+$30.69
Record
49%
271-280 (551)
Both legs:
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$161.06
Value
$162.08
PnL
+$1.02
Record
53%
1264-1138 (2402)
Invested
$121.81
Value
$134.13
PnL
+$12.32
Record
54%
3852-3222 (7074)
Invested
$108.56
Value
—
PnL
-$108.56
Record
46%
731-854 (1585)
Invested
$96.51
Value
$110.51
PnL
+$14
Record
60%
2210-1484 (3694)
Invested
$123.5
Value
$155
PnL
+$31.5
Record
46%
1152-1359 (2511)
Invested
$75
Value
—
PnL
-$75
Record
53%
582-524 (1106)
Invested
$77.72
Value
$73.19
PnL
-$3.8
Record
67%
2047-1024 (3071)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$39.89
Value
$58.4
PnL
+$18.51
Record
51%
1494-1420 (2914)
ohioism<$100Invested
$45.45
Value
$40
PnL
-$3
Record
48%
1183-1263 (2446)
Invested
$46.16
Value
$37.24
PnL
-$8.92
Record
49%
570-602 (1172)
wowitsamazing<$100Invested
$37.5
Value
$74.12
PnL
+$36.62
Record
44%
95-120 (215)
Invested
$70.75
Value
—
PnL
-$70.75
Record
59%
2906-2005 (4911)
Invested
$31.37
Value
$25.71
PnL
-$5.66
Record
47%
731-834 (1565)
Invested
$18.01
Value
$19.5
PnL
+$1.49
Record
47%
1342-1509 (2851)
Invested
$15.1
Value
$31.4
PnL
+$16.3
Record
37%
417-704 (1121)
Invested
$16.79
Value
$19.69
PnL
+$2.9
Record
52%
3955-3700 (7655)
Invested
$11.7
Value
$12.72
PnL
+$1.02
Record
62%
1422-863 (2285)
Invested
$11
Value
—
PnL
-$11
Record
55%
1208-984 (2192)
Invested
$6.55
Value
$15.6
PnL
+$9.05
Record
47%
1200-1358 (2558)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
uninformedfloww
Down — $1.2K
Hcrystallash
Down — $929.8
CrouchPredictions
Down — $603.55
ByteBadger92
CTRUp — $0
QuantumPebble673
CTRUp — $0
aswfadq1555
ARBArbitrage — excluded
Polkadot-Frog
Down — $162.08
stepahead
Down — $134.13
mo-money
CTRUp — $0
aaa221
Down — $110.51