Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET

18 of 28 top Polymarket traders hold Down (64%) · Down at 100¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 12

Up<1¢Down>99¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 64%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.5K

Combined PnL

-$82.65

Smart Money Entry

80.2¢ → 100¢

+25% since entry · 18 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

18 of 28 top traders (64%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%19 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down18 traders

Total Value$4.1K

Total Shares4,379

Combined PnL+$208.56

Up10 traders

Total Value$223.95

Total Shares3,690

Combined PnL-$291.21

Down — 64%Up — 36%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HC Hcrystallash	Downavg 90.3¢	$1.4K	$1.5K	+$126.36	57% 4456-3312 (7768)
HO hoodquant	Downavg 99¢	$859.27	$863.66	+$4.39	98% 2103-43 (2146)
CR CrouchPredictions	Downavg 69.8¢	$541.44	$553.07	+$15.9	46% 563-662 (1225)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Downavg 57.7¢	$431.47	$544.91	+$148.94	51% 1610-1559 (3169)
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Upavg 49.9¢	$532.5	$502.65	+$6.52	57% 2288-1755 (4043)
└ Up leg	Upavg 49.9¢	$253.88	$350.75	+$99.01
└ Down leg	Downavg 50.5¢	$247.59	$151.9	-$92.5
QU QuantumPebble673ARB<$100	Downavg 50¢	$500	$485	-$15	—
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$250	$330	+$80
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$250	$155	-$95
ST stepahead	Downavg 55.1¢	$165.61	$189.7	+$24.09	54% 3834-3208 (7042)
DE devonpollARB<$100	Downavg 50¢	$180	$174.6	-$5.4	51% 235-230 (465)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$90	$118.8	+$28.8
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$90	$55.8	-$34.2
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025	Downavg 87.5¢	$98.1	$104.95	+$7.33	47% 1159-1332 (2491)
AS aswfadq1555CTR<$100	Upavg 52.8¢	$84.76	$90.35	+$5.59	49% 265-272 (537)
38 38791873984189	Downavg 48.7¢	$130.15	$82.88	-$47.27	48% 1999-2208 (4207)
G-Penis-Monster	Downavg 88.9¢	$136.3	$72.16	-$63.68	44% 1135-1448 (2583)
AA aaa221CTR<$100	Upavg 57.1¢	$57.99	$70.05	+$12.07	60% 2157-1447 (3604)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 74.9¢	$65.16	$57.28	-$7.88	66% 1988-1002 (2990)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 71.2¢	$39.46	$39.29	+$0.97	62% 2279-1406 (3685)
BL blue.birds<$100	Downavg 50¢	$23.09	$30.19	+$7.1	52% 3913-3669 (7582)
PB PBot-5<$100	Downavg 89.3¢	$26.8	$26.55	-$0.25	48% 658-722 (1380)
BO bosonaCTR<$100	Upavg 54¢	$19.46	$24.86	+$5.4	50% 3943-3950 (7893)
Polkadot-Frog<$100	Downavg 64.2¢	$21.02	$21.08	+$0.06	53% 1239-1097 (2336)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Downavg 97.6¢	$16.71	$16.68	-$0.03	62% 1374-851 (2225)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR	Upavg 10.2¢	$315.57	$15.45	-$300.12	59% 2885-1975 (4860)
MO mo-money<$100	Downavg 86¢	$16.15	$12.6	-$3.54	46% 718-833 (1551)
KA Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100	Upavg 26.9¢	$2.75	$7.06	+$4.31	55% 1173-958 (2131)
PE peepeepoopoo24CTR<$100	Upavg 49.6¢	$4.42	$6.16	+$1.73	49% 563-593 (1156)
IM imoore-40CTR<$100	Upavg 49¢	$4.9	$5	+$0.1	90% 226-24 (250)

Hcrystallash

Down

Invested

$1,393.5

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$126.36

Record

57%

4456-3312 (7768)

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$859.27

Value

$863.66

PnL

+$4.39

Record

98%

2103-43 (2146)

CrouchPredictions

Down

Invested

$541.44

Value

$553.07

PnL

+$15.9

Record

46%

563-662 (1225)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down

Invested

$431.47

Value

$544.91

PnL

+$148.94

Record

51%

1610-1559 (3169)

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Invested

$532.5

Value

$502.65

PnL

+$6.52

Record

57%

2288-1755 (4043)

Both legs:

Up$253.8849.9¢+$99.01

Down$247.5950.5¢-$92.5

QuantumPebble673ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$500

Value

$485

PnL

-$15

Record

—

Both legs:

Invested

$165.61

Value

$189.7

PnL

+$24.09

Record

54%

3834-3208 (7042)

devonpollARB<$100

Down

Invested

$180

Value

$174.6

PnL

-$5.4

Record

51%

235-230 (465)

Both legs:

Up$9050¢+$28.8

Down$9050¢-$34.2

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025

Down

Invested

$98.1

Value

$104.95

PnL

+$7.33

Record

47%

1159-1332 (2491)

aswfadq1555CTR<$100

Invested

$84.76

Value

$90.35

PnL

+$5.59

Record

49%

265-272 (537)

38791873984189

Down

Invested

$130.15

Value

$82.88

PnL

-$47.27

Record

48%

1999-2208 (4207)

G-Penis-Monster

Down

Invested

$136.3

Value

$72.16

PnL

-$63.68

Record

44%

1135-1448 (2583)

aaa221CTR<$100

Invested

$57.99

Value

$70.05

PnL

+$12.07

Record

60%

2157-1447 (3604)

asdaefef<$100

Down

Invested

$65.16

Value

$57.28

PnL

-$7.88

Record

66%

1988-1002 (2990)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Down

Invested

$39.46

Value

$39.29

PnL

+$0.97

Record

62%

2279-1406 (3685)

blue.birds<$100

Down

Invested

$23.09

Value

$30.19

PnL

+$7.1

Record

52%

3913-3669 (7582)

PBot-5<$100

Down

Invested

$26.8

Value

$26.55

PnL

-$0.25

Record

48%

658-722 (1380)

bosonaCTR<$100

Invested

$19.46

Value

$24.86

PnL

+$5.4

Record

50%

3943-3950 (7893)

Polkadot-Frog<$100

Down

Invested

$21.02

Value

$21.08

PnL

+$0.06

Record

53%

1239-1097 (2336)

asidjasiodja<$100

Down

Invested

$16.71

Value

$16.68

PnL

-$0.03

Record

62%

1374-851 (2225)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR

Invested

$315.57

Value

$15.45

PnL

-$300.12

Record

59%

2885-1975 (4860)

mo-money<$100

Down

Invested

$16.15

Value

$12.6

PnL

-$3.54

Record

46%

718-833 (1551)

Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100

Invested

$2.75

Value

$7.06

PnL

+$4.31

Record

55%

1173-958 (2131)

peepeepoopoo24CTR<$100

Invested

$4.42

Value

$6.16

PnL

+$1.73

Record

49%

563-593 (1156)

imoore-40CTR<$100

Invested

$4.9

Value

PnL

+$0.1

Record

90%

226-24 (250)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Down

18 of 28 top traders (64%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%19 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.