Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET

15 of 24 top Polymarket traders hold Down (63%) · Down at 98¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 12

Up3¢Down97¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 63%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.7K

Combined PnL

$108.46

Smart Money Entry

74.5¢ → 97.5¢

+31% since entry · 15 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

15 of 24 top traders (63%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up3%

Down98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up9 traders

Total Value$1.0K

Total Shares1,444

Combined PnL-$8.98

Down15 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares1,569

Combined PnL+$117.45

Up — 38%Down — 62%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
QU QuantumPebble673CTR	Upavg 50¢	$500	$500	+$0	—
BY ByteBadger92CTR	Upavg 49.1¢	$503.26	$491.04	+$0.68	57% 2241-1691 (3932)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Downavg 71.2¢	$423.79	$462.6	+$38.81	51% 1602-1552 (3154)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e	Downavg 76.4¢	$215.48	$274.95	+$59.47	60% 2827-1912 (4739)
CR CrouchPredictions	Downavg 72.7¢	$213.53	$249.82	+$36.29	46% 550-646 (1196)
HC Hcrystallash	Downavg 76.9¢	$213.01	$184.3	-$28.71	57% 4445-3303 (7748)
ST stepaheadARB<$100	Downavg 75.9¢	$142.31	$135.84	-$6.48	54% 3817-3196 (7013)
└ Down leg	Downavg 75.9¢	$96.73	$106.99	+$10.26
└ Up leg	Upavg 25.3¢	$45.58	$28.85	-$16.74
AS aswfadq1555	Downavg 70.5¢	$93.57	$102.68	+$9.11	49% 255-268 (523)
Polkadot-Frog<$100	Downavg 84.8¢	$75.37	$76.25	+$0.88	53% 1210-1069 (2279)
gabigol<$100	Downavg 92.9¢	$50.12	$45.33	-$4.79	55% 163-136 (299)
AA aaa221<$100	Downavg 79¢	$31.49	$32.68	+$1.19	60% 2106-1411 (3517)
MayorMamdani<$100	Downavg 70.5¢	$31.02	$31.9	+$0.88	51% 1422-1352 (2774)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 69.1¢	$19.5	$23.7	+$4.2	67% 1947-979 (2926)
0X 0xcE25E214D5cfE4f459cf67F08DF581885AAE7Fdc-1777575398144<$100	Downavg 67.3¢	$19.53	$21.9	+$2.37	57% 78-58 (136)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 72¢	$36.6	$21.53	-$3.29	62% 2224-1373 (3597)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100	Upavg 25.1¢	$11.6	$14.75	+$3.15	44% 1117-1407 (2524)
MO mo-moneyCTR<$100	Upavg 23¢	$11.9	$14.23	+$2.33	46% 699-813 (1512)
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100	Upavg 5¢	$11.71	$12.88	+$1.17	38% 571-935 (1506)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Downavg 82.5¢	$11.83	$11.97	+$0.14	47% 1270-1451 (2721)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Downavg 77.9¢	$11.03	$11.82	+$0.79	62% 1338-834 (2172)
ohioismCTR<$100	Upavg 25.9¢	$15.55	$9.6	-$5.95	48% 1113-1213 (2326)
IM imoore-40<$100	Downavg 49¢	$4.9	$5	+$0.1	91% 220-23 (243)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Upavg 49¢	$3.81	$3.93	+$0.12	47% 1845-2082 (3927)
KA Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100	Upavg 25.5¢	$11.55	$1.13	-$10.42	55% 1146-933 (2079)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Upavg 26¢	$1.02	$0.96	-$0.06	47% 1401-1566 (2967)

QuantumPebble673CTR

Invested

$500

Value

$500

PnL

+$0

Record

—

ByteBadger92CTR

Invested

$503.26

Value

$491.04

PnL

+$0.68

Record

57%

2241-1691 (3932)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down

Invested

$423.79

Value

$462.6

PnL

+$38.81

Record

51%

1602-1552 (3154)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e

Down

Invested

$215.48

Value

$274.95

PnL

+$59.47

Record

60%

2827-1912 (4739)

CrouchPredictions

Down

Invested

$213.53

Value

$249.82

PnL

+$36.29

Record

46%

550-646 (1196)

Hcrystallash

Down

Invested

$213.01

Value

$184.3

PnL

-$28.71

Record

57%

4445-3303 (7748)

stepaheadARB<$100

Down

Invested

$142.31

Value

$135.84

PnL

-$6.48

Record

54%

3817-3196 (7013)

Both legs:

Down$96.7375.9¢+$10.26

Up$45.5825.3¢-$16.74

aswfadq1555

Down

Invested

$93.57

Value

$102.68

PnL

+$9.11

Record

49%

255-268 (523)

Polkadot-Frog<$100

Down

Invested

$75.37

Value

$76.25

PnL

+$0.88

Record

53%

1210-1069 (2279)

gabigol<$100

Down

Invested

$50.12

Value

$45.33

PnL

-$4.79

Record

55%

163-136 (299)

aaa221<$100

Down

Invested

$31.49

Value

$32.68

PnL

+$1.19

Record

60%

2106-1411 (3517)

MayorMamdani<$100

Down

Invested

$31.02

Value

$31.9

PnL

+$0.88

Record

51%

1422-1352 (2774)

asdaefef<$100

Down

Invested

$19.5

Value

$23.7

PnL

+$4.2

Record

67%

1947-979 (2926)

0xcE25E214D5cfE4f459cf67F08DF581885AAE7Fdc-1777575398144<$100

Down

Invested

$19.53

Value

$21.9

PnL

+$2.37

Record

57%

78-58 (136)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Down

Invested

$36.6

Value

$21.53

PnL

-$3.29

Record

62%

2224-1373 (3597)

G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100

Invested

$11.6

Value

$14.75

PnL

+$3.15

Record

44%

1117-1407 (2524)

mo-moneyCTR<$100

Invested

$11.9

Value

$14.23

PnL

+$2.33

Record

46%

699-813 (1512)

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100

Invested

$11.71

Value

$12.88

PnL

+$1.17

Record

38%

571-935 (1506)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Down

Invested

$11.83

Value

$11.97

PnL

+$0.14

Record

47%

1270-1451 (2721)

asidjasiodja<$100

Down

Invested

$11.03

Value

$11.82

PnL

+$0.79

Record

62%

1338-834 (2172)

ohioismCTR<$100

Invested

$15.55

Value

$9.6

PnL

-$5.95

Record

48%

1113-1213 (2326)

imoore-40<$100

Down

Invested

$4.9

Value

PnL

+$0.1

Record

91%

220-23 (243)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Invested

$3.81

Value

$3.93

PnL

+$0.12

Record

47%

1845-2082 (3927)

Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100

Invested

$11.55

Value

$1.13

PnL

-$10.42

Record

55%

1146-933 (2079)

suntoriCTR<$100

Invested

$1.02

Value

$0.96

PnL

-$0.06

Record

47%

1401-1566 (2967)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Down

15 of 24 top traders (63%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.6%

97.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.42

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.