Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET

Resolved Down. 64% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 63%

7 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.7K

Combined PnL

-$108.71

Smart Money Signal

Down

18 of 28 top traders (64%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%22 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down18 traders

Total Value$2.1K

Total Shares2,126

Combined PnL+$275.57

Up10 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares1,409

Combined PnL-$384.28

Down — 64%Up — 36%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO hoodquant	Downavg 99¢	$742.48	$749.98	+$7.5	98% 2083-42 (2125)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e	Downavg 64¢	$351.08	$548.25	+$197.17	60% 2827-1912 (4739)
QU QuantumPebble673ARB<$100	Upavg 50¢	$500	$500	+$0	—
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$250	$500	+$250
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$250	—	-$250
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Upavg 48.7¢	$529.34	$486	+$4.54	57% 2241-1691 (3932)
└ Down leg	Downavg 49.7¢	$241.47	$486	+$252.98
└ Up leg	Upavg 48.7¢	$250.51	—	-$248.44
CR CrouchPredictionsARB<$100	Downavg 63.1¢	$181.84	$175.42	-$6.43	46% 550-646 (1196)
└ Up leg	Upavg 13.2¢	$71.22	—	-$71.22
└ Down leg	Downavg 63.1¢	$110.62	$175.42	+$64.79
Polkadot-Frog	Downavg 77.9¢	$271.04	$253	-$18.04	53% 1210-1069 (2279)
DE devonpollARB<$100	Upavg 50¢	$180	$180	-$0	50% 216-217 (433)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$90	$180	+$90
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$90	—	-$90
ST stepaheadARB<$100	Upavg 28.3¢	$112.2	$117.37	+$5.17	54% 3817-3196 (7013)
└ Down leg	Downavg 44.7¢	$52.51	$117.37	+$64.86
└ Up leg	Upavg 28.3¢	$59.69	—	-$59.69
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Downavg 49¢	$91.93	$187.62	+$95.69	48% 1024-1120 (2144)
HC HcrystallashARB<$100	Upavg 30¢	$117.92	$98.28	-$19.64	57% 4445-3303 (7748)
└ Down leg	Downavg 51¢	$50.15	$98.28	+$48.13
└ Up leg	Upavg 30¢	$67.77	—	-$67.77
MO mo-moneyCTR<$100	Upavg 15.3¢	$76.42	—	-$76.42	46% 699-813 (1512)
gabigolCTR<$100	Upavg 1.3¢	$4.53	—	-$4.53	55% 163-136 (299)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 67.5¢	$82.15	$75.2	-$5.97	67% 1947-979 (2926)
wowitsamazing<$100	Downavg 52.3¢	$39	$74.62	+$35.62	43% 92-120 (212)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100	Upavg 49.7¢	$72.01	—	-$72.01	46% 1093-1302 (2395)
AS aswfadq1555ARB<$100	Upavg 33.5¢	$61.48	$35	-$26.48	49% 255-268 (523)
└ Up leg	Upavg 33.5¢	$44.68	—	-$44.68
└ Down leg	Downavg 48¢	$16.8	$35	+$18.2
PE peepeepoopoo24<$100	Downavg 59.1¢	$31.38	$53.08	+$21.7	48% 554-589 (1143)
BL blue.birds<$100	Downavg 75¢	$29.89	$30	+$0.11	52% 3880-3635 (7515)
AA aaa221<$100	Downavg 56.2¢	$52.14	$33.78	-$5.35	60% 2106-1411 (3517)
0X 0x50f7<$100	Downavg 99.9¢	$24.48	$24.5	+$0.02	48% 754-833 (1587)
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100	Downavg 58.9¢	$17.7	$25.28	+$7.58	55% 1146-933 (2079)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 60.5¢	$64.66	$24.55	+$13.6	62% 2224-1373 (3597)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Downavg 77.1¢	$14.48	$18.78	+$4.3	47% 1270-1451 (2721)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100	Upavg 50.4¢	$22.05	—	-$22.05	47% 1145-1296 (2441)
ohioismCTR<$100	Upavg 22¢	$7.9	—	-$7.9	48% 1113-1213 (2326)

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$742.48

Value

$749.98

PnL

+$7.5

Record

98%

2083-42 (2125)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e

Down

Invested

$351.08

Value

$548.25

PnL

+$197.17

Record

60%

2827-1912 (4739)

QuantumPebble673ARB<$100

Invested

$500

Value

$500

PnL

+$0

Record

—

Both legs:

Down$25050¢+$250

Up$25050¢-$250

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Invested

$529.34

Value

$486

PnL

+$4.54

Record

57%

2241-1691 (3932)

Both legs:

Down$241.4749.7¢+$252.98

Up$250.5148.7¢-$248.44

CrouchPredictionsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$181.84

Value

$175.42

PnL

-$6.43

Record

46%

550-646 (1196)

Both legs:

Up$71.2213.2¢-$71.22

Down$110.6263.1¢+$64.79

Polkadot-Frog

Down

Invested

$271.04

Value

$253

PnL

-$18.04

Record

53%

1210-1069 (2279)

devonpollARB<$100

Invested

$180

Value

$180

PnL

-$0

Record

50%

216-217 (433)

Both legs:

Down$9050¢+$90

Up$9050¢-$90

stepaheadARB<$100

Invested

$112.2

Value

$117.37

PnL

+$5.17

Record

54%

3817-3196 (7013)

Both legs:

Down$52.5144.7¢+$64.86

Up$59.6928.3¢-$59.69

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down

Invested

$91.93

Value

$187.62

PnL

+$95.69

Record

48%

1024-1120 (2144)

HcrystallashARB<$100

Invested

$117.92

Value

$98.28

PnL

-$19.64

Record

57%

4445-3303 (7748)

Both legs:

Down$50.1551¢+$48.13

Up$67.7730¢-$67.77

mo-moneyCTR<$100

Invested

$76.42

Value

—

PnL

-$76.42

Record

46%

699-813 (1512)

gabigolCTR<$100

Invested

$4.53

Value

—

PnL

-$4.53

Record

55%

163-136 (299)

asdaefef<$100

Down

Invested

$82.15

Value

$75.2

PnL

-$5.97

Record

67%

1947-979 (2926)

wowitsamazing<$100

Down

Invested

$39

Value

$74.62

PnL

+$35.62

Record

43%

92-120 (212)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100

Invested

$72.01

Value

—

PnL

-$72.01

Record

46%

1093-1302 (2395)

aswfadq1555ARB<$100

Invested

$61.48

Value

$35

PnL

-$26.48

Record

49%

255-268 (523)

Both legs:

Invested

$31.38

Value

$53.08

PnL

+$21.7

Record

48%

554-589 (1143)

blue.birds<$100

Down

Invested

$29.89

Value

$30

PnL

+$0.11

Record

52%

3880-3635 (7515)

aaa221<$100

Down

Invested

$52.14

Value

$33.78

PnL

-$5.35

Record

60%

2106-1411 (3517)

0x50f7<$100

Down

Invested

$24.48

Value

$24.5

PnL

+$0.02

Record

48%

754-833 (1587)

Kathod-Shi-14<$100

Down

Invested

$17.7

Value

$25.28

PnL

+$7.58

Record

55%

1146-933 (2079)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Down

Invested

$64.66

Value

$24.55

PnL

+$13.6

Record

62%

2224-1373 (3597)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Down

Invested

$14.48

Value

$18.78

PnL

+$4.3

Record

47%

1270-1451 (2721)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100

Invested

$22.05

Value

—

PnL

-$22.05

Record

47%

1145-1296 (2441)

ohioismCTR<$100

Invested

$7.9

Value

—

PnL

-$7.9

Record

48%

1113-1213 (2326)

Smart Money Signal

Down

18 of 28 top traders (64%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%22 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0xacf51b97...4ca08a

Slug

btc-updown-15m-1794461400

Traders in this Market

hoodquant

Down — $749.98

+$7.5

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e

Down — $548.25

+$197.17

QuantumPebble673

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$0

ByteBadger92

Arbitrage — excluded

CrouchPredictions

Arbitrage — excluded

Polkadot-Frog

Down — $253

-$18.04

devonpoll

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$0

stepahead

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$5.17

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down — $187.62

Hcrystallash

Arbitrage — excluded