Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET
Resolved Down. 83% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
35
Down 83%
3 arb excluded
$5.9K
-$78.49
Smart Money Signal
29 of 35 top traders (83%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%19 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SU suntori | Downavg 99¢ | $517.88 | $523.36 | +$5.48 | 47% 1320-1474 (2794) |
QU QuantumPebble673CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | — | -$500 | — |
HC Hcrystallash | Downavg 68.8¢ | $391.46 | $511.01 | +$119.55 | 57% 4432-3287 (7719) |
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Upavg 49.4¢ | $510.1 | $490 | -$4.27 | 57% 2190-1623 (3813) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50.6¢ | $247.98 | $490 | +$247 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 49.4¢ | $250.11 | — | -$251.27 | |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 98.6¢ | $452.27 | $458.46 | +$6.19 | 98% 2057-41 (2098) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Downavg 82.2¢ | $421.12 | $450.17 | +$30.06 | 46% 534-630 (1164) |
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e | Downavg 79.3¢ | $333.67 | $390.86 | +$77.3 | 60% 2757-1855 (4612) |
0X 0x50f7 | Downavg 99.9¢ | $390.18 | $390.57 | +$0.39 | 47% 727-804 (1531) |
AL almach | Downavg 89.4¢ | $299.3 | $325.83 | +$26.53 | 47% 685-774 (1459) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Downavg 73.1¢ | $548.87 | $236.99 | +$14.91 | 53% 1174-1043 (2217) |
LI Little-big | Downavg 54.2¢ | $111.15 | $205 | +$93.85 | 53% 540-472 (1012) |
38 38791873984189ARB<$100 | Upavg 49¢ | $196 | $199.99 | +$4 | 47% 1681-1866 (3547) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 49¢ | $98 | — | -$98 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 49¢ | $98 | $199.99 | +$102 | |
MO mo-money | Downavg 87.4¢ | $171.97 | $190.2 | +$18.23 | 46% 686-795 (1481) |
BO bosona | Downavg 91.2¢ | $173.95 | $184.69 | +$10.73 | 50% 3912-3912 (7824) |
DE devonpollARB<$100 | Downavg 50¢ | $180 | $180 | +$3.49 | 49% 201-206 (407) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $90 | $180 | +$90 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $84.38 | — | -$86.51 | |
0X 0x954b91DD68ECA3aA4EA603ECeA83C01E8539C0e0-1783400656972 | Downavg 98¢ | $172.26 | $175.82 | +$3.56 | 35% 182-334 (516) |
ST stepahead | Downavg 73.5¢ | $141.58 | $157 | +$15.42 | 54% 3796-3185 (6981) |
UN uninformedfloww | Downavg 72.1¢ | $146 | $202.47 | +$56.47 | 50% 977-986 (1963) |
 gabigol | Downavg 88.5¢ | $117.12 | $127.57 | +$10.45 | 54% 158-133 (291) |
RL RLWGCTR<$100 | Upavg 17¢ | $85 | — | -$85 | 67% 1681-834 (2515) |
 wowitsamazing<$100 | Downavg 58.2¢ | $42 | $72.14 | +$30.14 | 43% 90-118 (208) |
PE peepeepoopoo24<$100 | Downavg 82.3¢ | $64 | $60 | -$4 | 49% 541-568 (1109) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Downavg 86.9¢ | $52.15 | $60 | +$7.85 | 51% 1380-1304 (2684) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 83¢ | $33.2 | $40 | +$6.8 | 62% 2140-1336 (3476) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 76.8¢ | $35.22 | $45.23 | +$10.01 | 60% 2054-1370 (3424) |
Invested
$517.88
Value
$523.36
PnL
+$5.48
Record
47%
1320-1474 (2794)
Invested
$500
Value
—
PnL
-$500
Record
—
Invested
$391.46
Value
$511.01
PnL
+$119.55
Record
57%
4432-3287 (7719)
Invested
$510.1
Value
$490
PnL
-$4.27
Record
57%
2190-1623 (3813)
Both legs:
Invested
$452.27
Value
$458.46
PnL
+$6.19
Record
98%
2057-41 (2098)
Invested
$421.12
Value
$450.17
PnL
+$30.06
Record
46%
534-630 (1164)
Invested
$333.67
Value
$390.86
PnL
+$77.3
Record
60%
2757-1855 (4612)
Invested
$390.18
Value
$390.57
PnL
+$0.39
Record
47%
727-804 (1531)
Invested
$299.3
Value
$325.83
PnL
+$26.53
Record
47%
685-774 (1459)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$548.87
Value
$236.99
PnL
+$14.91
Record
53%
1174-1043 (2217)
Invested
$111.15
Value
$205
PnL
+$93.85
Record
53%
540-472 (1012)
Invested
$196
Value
$199.99
PnL
+$4
Record
47%
1681-1866 (3547)
Both legs:
Invested
$171.97
Value
$190.2
PnL
+$18.23
Record
46%
686-795 (1481)
Invested
$173.95
Value
$184.69
PnL
+$10.73
Record
50%
3912-3912 (7824)
Invested
$180
Value
$180
PnL
+$3.49
Record
49%
201-206 (407)
Both legs:
Invested
$172.26
Value
$175.82
PnL
+$3.56
Record
35%
182-334 (516)
Invested
$141.58
Value
$157
PnL
+$15.42
Record
54%
3796-3185 (6981)
Invested
$146
Value
$202.47
PnL
+$56.47
Record
50%
977-986 (1963)
gabigolInvested
$117.12
Value
$127.57
PnL
+$10.45
Record
54%
158-133 (291)
Invested
$85
Value
—
PnL
-$85
Record
67%
1681-834 (2515)
wowitsamazing<$100Invested
$42
Value
$72.14
PnL
+$30.14
Record
43%
90-118 (208)
Invested
$64
Value
$60
PnL
-$4
Record
49%
541-568 (1109)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$52.15
Value
$60
PnL
+$7.85
Record
51%
1380-1304 (2684)
Invested
$33.2
Value
$40
PnL
+$6.8
Record
62%
2140-1336 (3476)
Invested
$35.22
Value
$45.23
PnL
+$10.01
Record
60%
2054-1370 (3424)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
suntori
Down — $523.36
QuantumPebble673
CTRUp — $0
Hcrystallash
Down — $511.01
ByteBadger92
ARBArbitrage — excluded
hoodquant
Down — $458.46
CrouchPredictions
Down — $450.17
0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e
Down — $390.86
0x50f7
Down — $390.57
almach
Down — $325.83
Polkadot-Frog
Down — $236.99