Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET
Resolved Up. 56% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
39
Up 58%
8 arb excluded
$7.3K
$-2.0K
Smart Money Signal
22 of 39 top traders (56%)8 arbitrage traders dimmed17 hold an outcome priced under 50%20 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO hoodquant | Upavg 99¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | +$11.07 | 98% 2057-41 (2098) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100 | Downavg 68.9¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | +$10.48 | 51% 1582-1533 (3115) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 46¢ | $500.2 | $1.1K | +$586.42 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 68.9¢ | $575.94 | — | -$575.94 | |
QU QuantumPebble673 | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | $500 | +$0 | — |
BY ByteBadger92CTR | Downavg 49.7¢ | $529.9 | — | -$471.88 | 57% 2190-1623 (3813) |
HC HcrystallashARB<$100 | Downavg 54.2¢ | $556.33 | $457.52 | -$98.81 | 57% 4432-3287 (7719) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 44.1¢ | $201.89 | $457.52 | +$255.63 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 54.2¢ | $354.44 | — | -$354.44 | |
ST stepahead | Upavg 46.9¢ | $414.97 | $484.85 | +$69.88 | 54% 3796-3185 (6981) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Upavg 42.3¢ | $335.75 | $542.35 | +$206.6 | 46% 534-630 (1164) |
BO bosona | Upavg 55.4¢ | $293.82 | $383.06 | +$89.24 | 50% 3912-3912 (7824) |
AL almachARB<$100 | Upavg 44¢ | $224.01 | $286.51 | +$62.5 | 47% 685-774 (1459) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 44¢ | $126.06 | $286.51 | +$160.45 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 18.3¢ | $97.95 | — | -$97.95 | |
UN uninformedfloww | Upavg 66.5¢ | $194.89 | $293.12 | +$98.23 | 50% 977-986 (1963) |
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR | Downavg 36.3¢ | $668.43 | — | -$616.86 | 60% 2757-1855 (4612) |
RL RLWGCTR | Downavg 37.2¢ | $445.06 | — | -$445.06 | 67% 1681-834 (2515) |
82 0x828b...a12b | Upavg 50¢ | $180 | $180 | +$0 | 49% 201-206 (407) |
 G-Penis-Monster | Upavg 59.1¢ | $146.18 | $170 | +$25.82 | 44% 1079-1378 (2457) |
 gabigol | Upavg 60.7¢ | $164.98 | $271.78 | +$106.8 | 54% 158-133 (291) |
MO mo-moneyARB<$100 | Upavg 54.4¢ | $132.35 | $130.32 | -$2.03 | 46% 686-795 (1481) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 54.4¢ | $70.96 | $130.32 | +$59.37 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 16.1¢ | $61.4 | — | -$61.4 | |
AS aswfadq1555ARB<$100 | Upavg 51.9¢ | $151.07 | $154.49 | +$3.42 | 49% 247-260 (507) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 48.7¢ | $70.82 | — | -$70.82 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 51.9¢ | $80.25 | $154.49 | +$74.24 | |
FL flippingsharks | Upavg 63.3¢ | $104.44 | $164.9 | +$60.47 | 38% 399-656 (1055) |
PE peepeepoopoo24 | Upavg 39¢ | $89.74 | $124.98 | +$35.25 | 49% 541-568 (1109) |
BL blue.birds | Upavg 52.8¢ | $105.3 | $125 | +$19.7 | 52% 3844-3594 (7438) |
 Polkadot-FrogARB<$100 | Downavg 51.5¢ | $161.63 | $113.57 | +$1.94 | 53% 1174-1043 (2217) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 48.8¢ | $55.39 | $113.57 | +$58.79 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 51.5¢ | $56.11 | — | -$56.85 | |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025 | Upavg 62.3¢ | $62.27 | $100 | +$37.73 | 47% 1112-1258 (2370) |
AS asdaefefARB<$100 | Upavg 61.3¢ | $112.91 | $112.49 | -$0.42 | 67% 1888-951 (2839) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 61.3¢ | $68.95 | $112.49 | +$43.54 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 54.6¢ | $43.96 | — | -$43.96 | |
0X 0xd33d0d185cd215162c86cb481cd01acdc7d28489<$100 | Upavg 75.6¢ | $98.6 | $90 | +$10.9 | 56% 49-39 (88) |
 ohioismARB<$100 | Downavg 51.1¢ | $88.7 | $75 | -$13.7 | 48% 1088-1178 (2266) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 46.5¢ | $34.9 | $75 | +$40.1 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 51.1¢ | $53.8 | — | -$53.8 |
Invested
$1,095.93
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$11.07
Record
98%
2057-41 (2098)
Invested
$1,076.14
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$10.48
Record
51%
1582-1533 (3115)
Both legs:
Invested
$500
Value
$500
PnL
+$0
Record
—
Invested
$529.9
Value
—
PnL
-$471.88
Record
57%
2190-1623 (3813)
Invested
$556.33
Value
$457.52
PnL
-$98.81
Record
57%
4432-3287 (7719)
Both legs:
Invested
$414.97
Value
$484.85
PnL
+$69.88
Record
54%
3796-3185 (6981)
Invested
$335.75
Value
$542.35
PnL
+$206.6
Record
46%
534-630 (1164)
Invested
$293.82
Value
$383.06
PnL
+$89.24
Record
50%
3912-3912 (7824)
Invested
$224.01
Value
$286.51
PnL
+$62.5
Record
47%
685-774 (1459)
Both legs:
Invested
$194.89
Value
$293.12
PnL
+$98.23
Record
50%
977-986 (1963)
Invested
$668.43
Value
—
PnL
-$616.86
Record
60%
2757-1855 (4612)
Invested
$445.06
Value
—
PnL
-$445.06
Record
67%
1681-834 (2515)
Invested
$180
Value
$180
PnL
+$0
Record
49%
201-206 (407)
G-Penis-MonsterInvested
$146.18
Value
$170
PnL
+$25.82
Record
44%
1079-1378 (2457)
gabigolInvested
$164.98
Value
$271.78
PnL
+$106.8
Record
54%
158-133 (291)
Invested
$132.35
Value
$130.32
PnL
-$2.03
Record
46%
686-795 (1481)
Both legs:
Invested
$151.07
Value
$154.49
PnL
+$3.42
Record
49%
247-260 (507)
Both legs:
Invested
$104.44
Value
$164.9
PnL
+$60.47
Record
38%
399-656 (1055)
Invested
$89.74
Value
$124.98
PnL
+$35.25
Record
49%
541-568 (1109)
Invested
$105.3
Value
$125
PnL
+$19.7
Record
52%
3844-3594 (7438)
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100Invested
$161.63
Value
$113.57
PnL
+$1.94
Record
53%
1174-1043 (2217)
Both legs:
Invested
$62.27
Value
$100
PnL
+$37.73
Record
47%
1112-1258 (2370)
Invested
$112.91
Value
$112.49
PnL
-$0.42
Record
67%
1888-951 (2839)
Both legs:
Invested
$98.6
Value
$90
PnL
+$10.9
Record
56%
49-39 (88)
ohioismARB<$100Invested
$88.7
Value
$75
PnL
-$13.7
Record
48%
1088-1178 (2266)
Both legs:
Chat
Market Info
Traders in this Market
hoodquant
Up — $1.1K
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
ARBArbitrage — excluded
QuantumPebble673
Up — $500
ByteBadger92
CTRDown — $0
Hcrystallash
ARBArbitrage — excluded
stepahead
Up — $484.85
CrouchPredictions
Up — $542.35
bosona
Up — $383.06
almach
ARBArbitrage — excluded
uninformedfloww
Up — $293.12