Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET

17 of 26 top Polymarket traders hold Down (65%) · Down at 90¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 12

Up11¢Down89¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 65%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.0K

Combined PnL

$31.59

Smart Money Entry

80.6¢ → 89.5¢

+11% since entry · 17 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 90%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

17 of 26 top traders (65%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up11%

Down90%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down17 traders

Total Value$4.7K

Total Shares5,288

Combined PnL+$207.8

Up9 traders

Total Value$743.48

Total Shares2,420

Combined PnL-$176.21

Down — 65%Up — 35%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AL almach	Downavg 85¢	$903.16	$940.34	+$37.19	47% 668-756 (1424)
BO bosona	Downavg 88¢	$879.99	$884.99	+$5	50% 3891-3897 (7788)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Downavg 74.5¢	$778	$800.92	+$66.81	50% 1323-1316 (2639)
MO mo-money	Downavg 86.2¢	$589.13	$604.88	+$15.76	46% 669-781 (1450)
QU QuantumPebble673CTR	Upavg 50¢	$500	$500	+$0	—
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Upavg 49.6¢	$502.9	$494.35	+$2.85	58% 2058-1520 (3578)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$245	$276.85	+$33.85
└ Up leg	Upavg 49.6¢	$247.94	$217.5	-$31
CR CrouchPredictions	Downavg 77.4¢	$414.3	$445.56	+$31.26	46% 527-617 (1144)
AS aswfadq1555	Downavg 56.6¢	$218.65	$250.94	+$32.29	—
Polkadot-Frog	Downavg 65.4¢	$189.98	$195.23	+$5.25	53% 1148-1015 (2163)
gabigol	Downavg 88.4¢	$173.37	$177.44	+$4.07	—
FL flippingsharks	Downavg 85.9¢	$168.37	$173.37	+$5	—
ST stepahead	Downavg 72.1¢	$130.07	$138.76	+$8.69	54% 3785-3176 (6961)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR	Upavg 12.5¢	$124	$84.41	-$39.59	60% 2627-1728 (4355)
HC HcrystallashCTR	Upavg 33.9¢	$200.13	$55.02	-$66.49	57% 4421-3277 (7698)
PE peepeepoopoo24<$100	Downavg 86.7¢	$52	$53.1	+$1.1	—
LI Little-bigCTR<$100	Upavg 55.6¢	$42.25	$38.38	-$3.87	—
ohioismCTR<$100	Upavg 26.9¢	$47	$35.87	-$11.12	49% 1034-1095 (2129)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 62.8¢	$35.4	$30.7	-$4.7	66% 1796-933 (2729)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100	Upavg 25.8¢	$47.7	$21.28	-$26.43	46% 569-681 (1250)
MayorMamdani<$100	Downavg 88¢	$14.08	$14.16	+$0.08	52% 725-659 (1384)
PB PBot-5<$100	Downavg 85¢	$12.8	$10	-$1.3	47% 604-672 (1276)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100	Upavg 22¢	$5.5	$5.37	-$0.12	43% 227-296 (523)
IM imoore-40<$100	Downavg 49¢	$4.9	$5	+$0.1	—
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Downavg 77¢	$4.15	$4.77	+$0.62	61% 1255-809 (2064)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Downavg 77¢	$3.9	$4.48	+$0.58	—

almach

Down

Invested

$903.16

Value

$940.34

PnL

+$37.19

Record

47%

668-756 (1424)

bosona

Down

Invested

$879.99

Value

$884.99

PnL

+$5

Record

50%

3891-3897 (7788)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down

Invested

$778

Value

$800.92

PnL

+$66.81

Record

50%

1323-1316 (2639)

mo-money

Down

Invested

$589.13

Value

$604.88

PnL

+$15.76

Record

46%

669-781 (1450)

QuantumPebble673CTR

Invested

$500

Value

$500

PnL

+$0

Record

—

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Invested

$502.9

Value

$494.35

PnL

+$2.85

Record

58%

2058-1520 (3578)

Both legs:

Invested

$414.3

Value

$445.56

PnL

+$31.26

Record

46%

527-617 (1144)

aswfadq1555

Down

Invested

$218.65

Value

$250.94

PnL

+$32.29

Record

—

Polkadot-Frog

Down

Invested

$189.98

Value

$195.23

PnL

+$5.25

Record

53%

1148-1015 (2163)

gabigol

Down

Invested

$173.37

Value

$177.44

PnL

+$4.07

Record

—

flippingsharks

Down

Invested

$168.37

Value

$173.37

PnL

+$5

Record

—

stepahead

Down

Invested

$130.07

Value

$138.76

PnL

+$8.69

Record

54%

3785-3176 (6961)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR

Invested

$124

Value

$84.41

PnL

-$39.59

Record

60%

2627-1728 (4355)

HcrystallashCTR

Invested

$200.13

Value

$55.02

PnL

-$66.49

Record

57%

4421-3277 (7698)

peepeepoopoo24<$100

Down

Invested

$52

Value

$53.1

PnL

+$1.1

Record

—

Little-bigCTR<$100

Invested

$42.25

Value

$38.38

PnL

-$3.87

Record

—

ohioismCTR<$100

Invested

$47

Value

$35.87

PnL

-$11.12

Record

49%

1034-1095 (2129)

asdaefef<$100

Down

Invested

$35.4

Value

$30.7

PnL

-$4.7

Record

66%

1796-933 (2729)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100

Invested

$47.7

Value

$21.28

PnL

-$26.43

Record

46%

569-681 (1250)

MayorMamdani<$100

Down

Invested

$14.08

Value

$14.16

PnL

+$0.08

Record

52%

725-659 (1384)

PBot-5<$100

Down

Invested

$12.8

Value

$10

PnL

-$1.3

Record

47%

604-672 (1276)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100

Invested

$5.5

Value

$5.37

PnL

-$0.12

Record

43%

227-296 (523)

imoore-40<$100

Down

Invested

$4.9

Value

PnL

+$0.1

Record

—

asidjasiodja<$100

Down

Invested

$4.15

Value

$4.77

PnL

+$0.62

Record

61%

1255-809 (2064)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Down

Invested

$3.9

Value

$4.48

PnL

+$0.58

Record

—

Research grade

NeutralDown at 90%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Down

17 of 26 top traders (65%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance91.1%

89.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$9.77

Max Loss

-$100.00

109.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.