Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET
Resolved Down. 63% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
32
Down 65%
1 arb excluded
$2.9K
-$38.25
Smart Money Signal
20 of 32 top traders (63%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%25 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO hoodquant | Downavg 99¢ | $933.7 | $943.13 | +$9.43 | 98% 1917-39 (1956) |
HC Hcrystallash | Downavg 69.5¢ | $459.87 | $471.41 | +$13.64 | 57% 4421-3277 (7698) |
38 38791873984189ARB<$100 | Downavg 48.6¢ | $269.07 | $352.23 | +$83.16 | 48% 1454-1600 (3054) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 49¢ | $98 | — | -$98 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 48.6¢ | $171.07 | $352.23 | +$181.16 | |
MO mo-money | Downavg 56¢ | $96.87 | $171.45 | +$74.58 | 46% 669-781 (1450) |
 gabigol | Downavg 82¢ | $138 | $168.27 | +$30.28 | — |
0X 0x954b91DD68ECA3aA4EA603ECeA83C01E8539C0e0-1783400656972 | Downavg 80.6¢ | $134 | $102.99 | -$23.23 | 35% 179-332 (511) |
CR CrouchPredictions<$100 | Downavg 70.9¢ | $93.94 | $98.83 | +$4.89 | 46% 527-617 (1144) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 60.7¢ | $76.84 | $83.1 | +$23.36 | 66% 1796-933 (2729) |
 G-Penis-Monster<$100 | Downavg 89.8¢ | $60.92 | $67.86 | +$6.94 | 44% 1012-1265 (2277) |
ST stepahead<$100 | Downavg 73.7¢ | $67.2 | $55.99 | -$11.21 | 54% 3785-3176 (6961) |
PE peepeepoopoo24CTR<$100 | Upavg 21.3¢ | $40.55 | — | -$40.55 | — |
BL blue.birds<$100 | Downavg 62.8¢ | $46.46 | $62.13 | +$15.67 | 52% 3819-3574 (7393) |
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100 | Downavg 52.5¢ | $42.54 | $63.4 | +$20.86 | 60% 2627-1728 (4355) |
 ohioism<$100 | Downavg 90.7¢ | $60.4 | $45 | -$15.4 | 49% 1034-1095 (2129) |
FL flippingsharks | Downavg 56.1¢ | $70.19 | $125.04 | +$54.85 | — |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100 | Upavg 50¢ | $17.5 | — | -$17.5 | 43% 227-296 (523) |
AS aswfadq1555CTR | Upavg 40.7¢ | $118.71 | — | -$118.71 | — |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Downavg 75.8¢ | $21.41 | $23.25 | +$1.84 | 61% 1255-809 (2064) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Downavg 88.9¢ | $21.26 | $22.56 | +$1.48 | — |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100 | Upavg 50¢ | $56.5 | — | -$56.5 | 46% 569-681 (1250) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 45¢ | $71.71 | $23.66 | +$4.26 | 62% 2042-1276 (3318) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 56.2¢ | $22.22 | $19.96 | +$6.66 | — |
 MayorMamdaniCTR<$100 | Upavg 24.4¢ | $13.21 | — | -$13.21 | 52% 725-659 (1384) |
PB PBot-6CTR<$100 | Upavg 49.5¢ | $10.9 | — | -$10.9 | — |
BO bosona<$100 | Downavg 48¢ | $14.77 | $30.77 | +$16 | 50% 3891-3897 (7788) |
Invested
$933.7
Value
$943.13
PnL
+$9.43
Record
98%
1917-39 (1956)
Invested
$459.87
Value
$471.41
PnL
+$13.64
Record
57%
4421-3277 (7698)
Invested
$269.07
Value
$352.23
PnL
+$83.16
Record
48%
1454-1600 (3054)
Both legs:
Invested
$96.87
Value
$171.45
PnL
+$74.58
Record
46%
669-781 (1450)
gabigolInvested
$138
Value
$168.27
PnL
+$30.28
Record
—
Invested
$134
Value
$102.99
PnL
-$23.23
Record
35%
179-332 (511)
Invested
$93.94
Value
$98.83
PnL
+$4.89
Record
46%
527-617 (1144)
Invested
$76.84
Value
$83.1
PnL
+$23.36
Record
66%
1796-933 (2729)
G-Penis-Monster<$100Invested
$60.92
Value
$67.86
PnL
+$6.94
Record
44%
1012-1265 (2277)
Invested
$67.2
Value
$55.99
PnL
-$11.21
Record
54%
3785-3176 (6961)
Invested
$40.55
Value
—
PnL
-$40.55
Record
—
Invested
$46.46
Value
$62.13
PnL
+$15.67
Record
52%
3819-3574 (7393)
Invested
$42.54
Value
$63.4
PnL
+$20.86
Record
60%
2627-1728 (4355)
ohioism<$100Invested
$60.4
Value
$45
PnL
-$15.4
Record
49%
1034-1095 (2129)
Invested
$70.19
Value
$125.04
PnL
+$54.85
Record
—
Invested
$17.5
Value
—
PnL
-$17.5
Record
43%
227-296 (523)
Invested
$118.71
Value
—
PnL
-$118.71
Record
—
Invested
$21.41
Value
$23.25
PnL
+$1.84
Record
61%
1255-809 (2064)
Invested
$21.26
Value
$22.56
PnL
+$1.48
Record
—
Invested
$56.5
Value
—
PnL
-$56.5
Record
46%
569-681 (1250)
Invested
$71.71
Value
$23.66
PnL
+$4.26
Record
62%
2042-1276 (3318)
Invested
$22.22
Value
$19.96
PnL
+$6.66
Record
—
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100Invested
$13.21
Value
—
PnL
-$13.21
Record
52%
725-659 (1384)
Invested
$10.9
Value
—
PnL
-$10.9
Record
—
Invested
$14.77
Value
$30.77
PnL
+$16
Record
50%
3891-3897 (7788)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
hoodquant
Down — $943.13
Hcrystallash
Down — $471.41
38791873984189
ARBArbitrage — excluded
mo-money
Down — $171.45
gabigol
Down — $168.27
0x954b91DD68ECA3aA4EA603ECeA83C01E8539C0e0-1783400656972
Down — $102.99
CrouchPredictions
Down — $98.83
asdaefef
Down — $83.1
G-Penis-Monster
Down — $67.86
stepahead
Down — $55.99