Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET
Resolved Down. 51% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
37
Down 51%
1 arb excluded
$14.4K
$81.38
Smart Money Signal
19 of 37 top traders (51%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed18 hold an outcome priced under 50%23 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x50f7 | Downavg 99.9¢ | $6.0K | $6.0K | +$6.01 | 47% 619-701 (1320) |
 BoneOhio | Downavg 99¢ | $3.0K | $3.0K | +$30 | 73% 753-272 (1025) |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 99¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | +$10.95 | 98% 1899-39 (1938) |
0X 0x954b91DD68ECA3aA4EA603ECeA83C01E8539C0e0-1783400656972 | Downavg 54.7¢ | $379 | $693.09 | +$314.09 | 35% 179-329 (508) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Downavg 86.6¢ | $709.92 | $519.83 | -$190.09 | 46% 519-610 (1129) |
AL almach | Downavg 99.6¢ | $510.48 | $499.98 | -$10.5 | 47% 654-750 (1404) |
MO mo-money | Downavg 99.7¢ | $427.33 | $421.01 | -$6.32 | 46% 656-776 (1432) |
BO bosona | Downavg 99.6¢ | $406.84 | $401.62 | -$5.22 | 50% 3878-3890 (7768) |
HC Hcrystallash | Downavg 55.5¢ | $330.15 | $392.39 | +$73.04 | 57% 4408-3274 (7682) |
7E 0x7e5d...c4c3 | Downavg 67.2¢ | $324.88 | $352.76 | +$27.88 | — |
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e | Downavg 57¢ | $205.11 | $346.84 | +$141.73 | 60% 2617-1724 (4341) |
88 0x8852...c569 | Downavg 95.4¢ | $254.97 | $261.23 | +$6.27 | — |
ST stepahead | Downavg 75.4¢ | $166.08 | $163.25 | -$2.83 | 54% 3778-3168 (6946) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518 | Downavg 99¢ | $129.69 | $131 | +$1.31 | 48% 991-1090 (2081) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Upavg 49¢ | $85.37 | — | -$85.37 | 48% 1430-1573 (3003) |
42 0x424e...263bARB<$100 | Downavg 59¢ | $74.5 | $70 | -$4.5 | — |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 59¢ | $41.3 | $70 | +$28.7 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 41.5¢ | $33.2 | — | -$33.2 | |
14 0x1404...de47<$100 | Downavg 95¢ | $46.2 | $40 | -$6.2 | — |
 ohioismCTR<$100 | Upavg 37¢ | $37.51 | — | -$37.51 | 48% 1014-1081 (2095) |
BA 0xba67...4727CTR<$100 | Upavg 33.2¢ | $28.75 | — | -$28.75 | — |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 57.9¢ | $21.32 | $23.17 | +$2.24 | 66% 1776-921 (2697) |
 G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100 | Upavg 34¢ | $21.65 | — | -$21.65 | 44% 990-1249 (2239) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 34.5¢ | $13.61 | $20 | +$12.11 | 62% 2020-1262 (3282) |
21 0x21d0...e8d7CTR<$100 | Upavg 48.7¢ | $14.6 | — | -$14.6 | — |
RL RLWGCTR<$100 | Upavg 5¢ | $18.75 | — | -$18.75 | 67% 1664-818 (2482) |
1B 0x1b41...0b56CTR<$100 | Upavg 34.7¢ | $9.05 | — | -$9.05 | — |
Invested
$6,002
Value
$6.0K
PnL
+$6.01
Record
47%
619-701 (1320)
BoneOhioInvested
$2,970
Value
$3.0K
PnL
+$30
Record
73%
753-272 (1025)
Invested
$1,076.05
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$10.95
Record
98%
1899-39 (1938)
Invested
$379
Value
$693.09
PnL
+$314.09
Record
35%
179-329 (508)
Invested
$709.92
Value
$519.83
PnL
-$190.09
Record
46%
519-610 (1129)
Invested
$510.48
Value
$499.98
PnL
-$10.5
Record
47%
654-750 (1404)
Invested
$427.33
Value
$421.01
PnL
-$6.32
Record
46%
656-776 (1432)
Invested
$406.84
Value
$401.62
PnL
-$5.22
Record
50%
3878-3890 (7768)
Invested
$330.15
Value
$392.39
PnL
+$73.04
Record
57%
4408-3274 (7682)
Invested
$324.88
Value
$352.76
PnL
+$27.88
Record
—
Invested
$205.11
Value
$346.84
PnL
+$141.73
Record
60%
2617-1724 (4341)
Invested
$254.97
Value
$261.23
PnL
+$6.27
Record
—
Invested
$166.08
Value
$163.25
PnL
-$2.83
Record
54%
3778-3168 (6946)
Invested
$129.69
Value
$131
PnL
+$1.31
Record
48%
991-1090 (2081)
Invested
$85.37
Value
—
PnL
-$85.37
Record
48%
1430-1573 (3003)
Invested
$74.5
Value
$70
PnL
-$4.5
Record
—
Both legs:
Invested
$46.2
Value
$40
PnL
-$6.2
Record
—
ohioismCTR<$100Invested
$37.51
Value
—
PnL
-$37.51
Record
48%
1014-1081 (2095)
Invested
$28.75
Value
—
PnL
-$28.75
Record
—
Invested
$21.32
Value
$23.17
PnL
+$2.24
Record
66%
1776-921 (2697)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100Invested
$21.65
Value
—
PnL
-$21.65
Record
44%
990-1249 (2239)
Invested
$13.61
Value
$20
PnL
+$12.11
Record
62%
2020-1262 (3282)
Invested
$14.6
Value
—
PnL
-$14.6
Record
—
Invested
$18.75
Value
—
PnL
-$18.75
Record
67%
1664-818 (2482)
Invested
$9.05
Value
—
PnL
-$9.05
Record
—
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x50f7
Down — $6.0K
BoneOhio
Down — $3.0K
hoodquant
Down — $1.1K
0x954b91DD68ECA3aA4EA603ECeA83C01E8539C0e0-1783400656972
Down — $693.09
CrouchPredictions
Down — $519.83
almach
Down — $499.98
mo-money
Down — $421.01
bosona
Down — $401.62
Hcrystallash
Down — $392.39
0x7e5d...c4c3
Down — $352.76