Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET
Resolved Up. 59% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
46
Up 59%
1 arb excluded
$13.4K
$-5.7K
Smart Money Signal
27 of 46 top traders (59%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed19 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CR CrouchPredictions | Upavg 66.4¢ | $1.9K | $1.8K | -$80.49 | 46% 519-610 (1129) |
44 0x4483...54c6 | Upavg 85.3¢ | $1.1K | $1.3K | +$196.67 | — |
HC Hcrystallash | Upavg 60.2¢ | $1.2K | $1.3K | +$132.51 | 57% 4408-3274 (7682) |
UN uninformedfloww | Upavg 22.1¢ | $278.11 | $1.3K | +$979.37 | 49% 767-785 (1552) |
03 0x037b...9182 | Upavg 85.5¢ | $1.0K | $1.2K | +$178.35 | — |
7E 0x7e5d...c4c3 | Upavg 56.1¢ | $1.2K | $1.2K | -$5.82 | — |
HO hoodquant | Upavg 97.6¢ | $927.98 | $950.53 | +$22.55 | 98% 1899-39 (1938) |
AL almachCTR | Downavg 76.6¢ | $1.1K | — | $-1.1K | 47% 654-750 (1404) |
MO mo-moneyCTR | Downavg 72.4¢ | $954.47 | — | -$954.47 | 46% 656-776 (1432) |
ST stepahead | Upavg 66.8¢ | $732.56 | $626.54 | -$106.02 | 54% 3778-3168 (6946) |
BO bosonaCTR | Downavg 78.9¢ | $801.51 | — | -$801.51 | 50% 3878-3890 (7768) |
E8 0xe8d6...c964 | Upavg 66.1¢ | $360.13 | $514.15 | +$158.66 | — |
C3 0xc387...e4f4 | Upavg 50.2¢ | $501.71 | $521.18 | +$19.46 | — |
 Atomforge | Upavg 82.8¢ | $444.29 | $332.43 | -$102.54 | 21% 203-748 (951) |
BA 0xba67...4727 | Upavg 33.3¢ | $230.71 | $387.28 | +$156.58 | — |
CE 0xce25...7fdc | Upavg 43¢ | $133.15 | $309.58 | +$176.43 | — |
BL blue.birds | Upavg 59.7¢ | $195.74 | $214.15 | +$18.42 | 52% 3801-3556 (7357) |
AS asdaefefCTR | Downavg 77.3¢ | $238.16 | — | -$238.16 | 66% 1776-921 (2697) |
PB PBot-5 | Upavg 61.7¢ | $227.86 | $206 | -$14.37 | 47% 593-667 (1260) |
F8 0xf8af...54c6 | Upavg 50.7¢ | $109.94 | $208.2 | +$98.26 | — |
 ohioism | Upavg 46.6¢ | $147.44 | $215 | +$67.56 | 48% 1014-1081 (2095) |
88 0x8852...c569ARB<$100 | Downavg 78.4¢ | $154.44 | $180.91 | +$26.47 | — |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 29.2¢ | $52.85 | $180.91 | +$128.06 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 78.4¢ | $101.59 | — | -$101.59 | |
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR | Downavg 68.8¢ | $278.8 | — | -$274.9 | 60% 2617-1724 (4341) |
42 0x424e...263b | Upavg 48.7¢ | $94.05 | $153.18 | +$59.13 | — |
RL RLWGCTR | Downavg 73.3¢ | $699.38 | — | -$699.38 | 67% 1664-818 (2482) |
Invested
$1,881.44
Value
$1.8K
PnL
-$80.49
Record
46%
519-610 (1129)
Invested
$1,139.91
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$196.67
Record
—
Invested
$1,163.3
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$132.51
Record
57%
4408-3274 (7682)
Invested
$278.11
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$979.37
Record
49%
767-785 (1552)
Invested
$1,049.25
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$178.35
Record
—
Invested
$1,198
Value
$1.2K
PnL
-$5.82
Record
—
Invested
$927.98
Value
$950.53
PnL
+$22.55
Record
98%
1899-39 (1938)
Invested
$1,059.83
Value
—
PnL
$-1.1K
Record
47%
654-750 (1404)
Invested
$954.47
Value
—
PnL
-$954.47
Record
46%
656-776 (1432)
Invested
$732.56
Value
$626.54
PnL
-$106.02
Record
54%
3778-3168 (6946)
Invested
$801.51
Value
—
PnL
-$801.51
Record
50%
3878-3890 (7768)
Invested
$360.13
Value
$514.15
PnL
+$158.66
Record
—
Invested
$501.71
Value
$521.18
PnL
+$19.46
Record
—
AtomforgeInvested
$444.29
Value
$332.43
PnL
-$102.54
Record
21%
203-748 (951)
Invested
$230.71
Value
$387.28
PnL
+$156.58
Record
—
Invested
$133.15
Value
$309.58
PnL
+$176.43
Record
—
Invested
$195.74
Value
$214.15
PnL
+$18.42
Record
52%
3801-3556 (7357)
Invested
$238.16
Value
—
PnL
-$238.16
Record
66%
1776-921 (2697)
Invested
$227.86
Value
$206
PnL
-$14.37
Record
47%
593-667 (1260)
Invested
$109.94
Value
$208.2
PnL
+$98.26
Record
—
ohioismInvested
$147.44
Value
$215
PnL
+$67.56
Record
48%
1014-1081 (2095)
Invested
$154.44
Value
$180.91
PnL
+$26.47
Record
—
Both legs:
Invested
$278.8
Value
—
PnL
-$274.9
Record
60%
2617-1724 (4341)
Invested
$94.05
Value
$153.18
PnL
+$59.13
Record
—
Invested
$699.38
Value
—
PnL
-$699.38
Record
67%
1664-818 (2482)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
CrouchPredictions
Up — $1.8K
0x4483...54c6
Up — $1.3K
Hcrystallash
Up — $1.3K
uninformedfloww
Up — $1.3K
0x037b...9182
Up — $1.2K
0x7e5d...c4c3
Up — $1.2K
hoodquant
Up — $950.53
almach
CTRDown — $0
mo-money
CTRDown — $0
stepahead
Up — $626.54