Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET

21 of 26 top Polymarket traders hold Down (81%) · Down at 100¢ · $18K held · ended Nov 12

Up<1¢Down>99¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 81%

Total Value

$17.7K

Combined PnL

-$240.2

Smart Money Entry

84.9¢ → 100¢

+18% since entry · 21 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

21 of 26 top traders (81%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down21 traders

Total Value$16.9K

Total Shares17,820

Combined PnL+$34.52

Up5 traders

Total Value$784.27

Total Shares6,536

Combined PnL-$274.72

Down — 81%Up — 19%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

16 traders

Top 2 hold 49%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

70% of non-arb traders are on Down. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 49% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpDown 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrDown 60% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Down 70% · 23

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e	Downavg 85.3¢	$4.2K	$4.4K	+$131.98	60% 2613-1718 (4331)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Downavg 85.6¢	$2.7K	$2.1K	-$72.32	50% 1287-1282 (2569)
UN uninformedfloww	Downavg 87.9¢	$1.9K	$1.9K	+$3.11	50% 758-760 (1518)
HO hoodquant	Downavg 97.8¢	$1.3K	$1.2K	-$129.83	98% 1879-39 (1918)
BO bosona	Downavg 88.4¢	$1.2K	$1.1K	-$99.19	50% 3870-3877 (7747)
Polkadot-Frog	Downavg 85.9¢	$962.9	$969.64	+$54.44	53% 1115-988 (2103)
CR CrouchPredictions	Downavg 88.3¢	$936.48	$869.24	-$67.24	46% 513-600 (1113)
ST stepahead	Downavg 83.6¢	$830.43	$813.22	-$17.21	54% 3769-3160 (6929)
AL almach	Downavg 90.2¢	$840.42	$723.91	-$116.51	46% 641-740 (1381)
HC Hcrystallash	Downavg 77.6¢	$602.42	$659.56	+$57.14	57% 4397-3263 (7660)
0X 0x954b91DD68ECA3aA4EA603ECeA83C01E8539C0e0-1783400656972CTR	Upavg 13.3¢	$654.62	$591.33	-$63.29	35% 179-329 (508)
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710	Downavg 87¢	$521.74	$527.97	+$6.22	38% 456-749 (1205)
MO mo-money	Downavg 86¢	$581.36	$472.57	-$71.11	46% 645-764 (1409)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Downavg 20.2¢	$70.13	$306.24	+$236.11	48% 984-1079 (2063)
Atomforge	Downavg 77.3¢	$277.63	$302.49	+$36.24	21% 203-748 (951)
0X 0xd33d0d185cd215162c86cb481cd01acdc7d28489	Downavg 70¢	$231.45	$266.4	+$38.55	57% 48-36 (84)
RL RLWGCTR	Upavg 25.4¢	$390.65	$184.2	-$206.45	67% 1661-814 (2475)
PB PBot-5	Downavg 66.3¢	$96.21	$127.6	+$31.39	48% 590-652 (1242)
wowitsamazing<$100	Downavg 56¢	$58.5	$65.68	+$19.81	43% 85-112 (197)
BL blue.birds<$100	Downavg 70.5¢	$48.75	$56.74	+$7.99	52% 3785-3535 (7320)
PL ply-pm4<$100	Downavg 74¢	$58.73	$52.96	-$5.77	17% 67-335 (402)
AS asdcaxz<$100	Downavg 90¢	$60	$51.47	-$8.53	49% 3474-3580 (7054)
BoneOhio<$100	Downavg 91¢	$22.73	$21.98	-$0.75	74% 747-268 (1015)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100	Upavg 18.5¢	$11.83	$7.69	-$4.14	44% 971-1233 (2204)
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100	Upavg 1¢	$0.05	$0.6	+$0.55	38% 703-1154 (1857)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e

Down

Invested

$4,223.61

Value

$4.4K

PnL

+$131.98

Record

60%

2613-1718 (4331)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down

Invested

$2,710.39

Value

$2.1K

PnL

-$72.32

Record

50%

1287-1282 (2569)

uninformedfloww

Down

Invested

$1,891.48

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$3.11

Record

50%

758-760 (1518)

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$1,300.23

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$129.83

Record

98%

1879-39 (1918)

bosona

Down

Invested

$1,158.55

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$99.19

Record

50%

3870-3877 (7747)

Polkadot-Frog

Down

Invested

$962.9

Value

$969.64

PnL

+$54.44

Record

53%

1115-988 (2103)

CrouchPredictions

Down

Invested

$936.48

Value

$869.24

PnL

-$67.24

Record

46%

513-600 (1113)

stepahead

Down

Invested

$830.43

Value

$813.22

PnL

-$17.21

Record

54%

3769-3160 (6929)

almach

Down

Invested

$840.42

Value

$723.91

PnL

-$116.51

Record

46%

641-740 (1381)

Hcrystallash

Down

Invested

$602.42

Value

$659.56

PnL

+$57.14

Record

57%

4397-3263 (7660)

0x954b91DD68ECA3aA4EA603ECeA83C01E8539C0e0-1783400656972CTR

Invested

$654.62

Value

$591.33

PnL

-$63.29

Record

35%

179-329 (508)

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710

Down

Invested

$521.74

Value

$527.97

PnL

+$6.22

Record

38%

456-749 (1205)

mo-money

Down

Invested

$581.36

Value

$472.57

PnL

-$71.11

Record

46%

645-764 (1409)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down

Invested

$70.13

Value

$306.24

PnL

+$236.11

Record

48%

984-1079 (2063)

Atomforge

Down

Invested

$277.63

Value

$302.49

PnL

+$36.24

Record

21%

203-748 (951)

0xd33d0d185cd215162c86cb481cd01acdc7d28489

Down

Invested

$231.45

Value

$266.4

PnL

+$38.55

Record

57%

48-36 (84)

RLWGCTR

Invested

$390.65

Value

$184.2

PnL

-$206.45

Record

67%

1661-814 (2475)

PBot-5

Down

Invested

$96.21

Value

$127.6

PnL

+$31.39

Record

48%

590-652 (1242)

wowitsamazing<$100

Down

Invested

$58.5

Value

$65.68

PnL

+$19.81

Record

43%

85-112 (197)

blue.birds<$100

Down

Invested

$48.75

Value

$56.74

PnL

+$7.99

Record

52%

3785-3535 (7320)

ply-pm4<$100

Down

Invested

$58.73

Value

$52.96

PnL

-$5.77

Record

17%

67-335 (402)

asdcaxz<$100

Down

Invested

$60

Value

$51.47

PnL

-$8.53

Record

49%

3474-3580 (7054)

BoneOhio<$100

Down

Invested

$22.73

Value

$21.98

PnL

-$0.75

Record

74%

747-268 (1015)

G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100

Invested

$11.83

Value

$7.69

PnL

-$4.14

Record

44%

971-1233 (2204)

antsaslykuCTR<$100

Invested

$0.05

Value

$0.6

PnL

+$0.55

Record

38%

703-1154 (1857)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Down

21 of 26 top traders (81%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

16 traders

Top 2 hold 49%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

70% of non-arb traders are on Down. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 49% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpDown 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrDown 60% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Down 70% · 23

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.