Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET
Resolved Down. 82% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
17
Down 82%
1 arb excluded
$4.6K
$217.23
Smart Money Signal
14 of 17 top traders (82%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO hoodquant | Downavg 99¢ | $1.2K | $1.2K | +$12.3 | 98% 1837-39 (1876) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Downavg 69.8¢ | $1.0K | $1.1K | +$79.11 | 50% 1263-1254 (2517) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Downavg 70.1¢ | $447.35 | $613.86 | +$166.51 | 46% 495-586 (1081) |
AL almach | Downavg 67.6¢ | $268.73 | $375.31 | +$106.59 | 46% 613-725 (1338) |
HC Hcrystallash | Downavg 59.6¢ | $238.6 | $278 | +$39.52 | 57% 4377-3250 (7627) |
MO mo-money | Downavg 76¢ | $213.17 | $259.63 | +$46.46 | 45% 619-745 (1364) |
ST stepahead | Downavg 66.4¢ | $226.76 | $238.93 | +$12.17 | 54% 3749-3148 (6897) |
BO bosonaARB<$100 | Downavg 41.2¢ | $71.72 | $130.1 | +$58.39 | 50% 3845-3861 (7706) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 41.2¢ | $53.56 | $130.1 | +$76.54 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 3.1¢ | $18.15 | — | -$18.15 | |
 Polkadot-Frog | Downavg 80.8¢ | $146.36 | $139.5 | -$6.86 | 53% 1080-957 (2037) |
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100 | Downavg 46.2¢ | $33.62 | $72.77 | +$39.15 | 60% 2597-1705 (4302) |
 ohioism<$100 | Downavg 56.7¢ | $34.38 | $54.3 | +$19.92 | 48% 962-1040 (2002) |
PB PBot-5<$100 | Downavg 54.6¢ | $18.01 | $32.98 | +$14.97 | 48% 575-634 (1209) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Downavg 47.3¢ | $19.17 | $40.57 | +$21.4 | 55% 650-530 (1180) |
 G-Penis-Monster<$100 | Downavg 60.6¢ | $16.22 | $16.45 | +$0.23 | 44% 945-1197 (2142) |
AS asdcaxz<$100 | Downavg 79¢ | $9.99 | $12.64 | +$2.65 | 49% 3432-3549 (6981) |
BY ByteBadger92CTR<$100 | Upavg 23¢ | $9.2 | — | +$0.94 | 58% 1948-1427 (3375) |
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR | Upavg 37.5¢ | $337.76 | — | -$337.76 | 37% 435-728 (1163) |
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100 | Upavg 1¢ | $0.05 | — | -$0.05 | 38% 687-1125 (1812) |
Invested
$1,213.72
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$12.3
Record
98%
1837-39 (1876)
Invested
$1,003.18
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$79.11
Record
50%
1263-1254 (2517)
Invested
$447.35
Value
$613.86
PnL
+$166.51
Record
46%
495-586 (1081)
Invested
$268.73
Value
$375.31
PnL
+$106.59
Record
46%
613-725 (1338)
Invested
$238.6
Value
$278
PnL
+$39.52
Record
57%
4377-3250 (7627)
Invested
$213.17
Value
$259.63
PnL
+$46.46
Record
45%
619-745 (1364)
Invested
$226.76
Value
$238.93
PnL
+$12.17
Record
54%
3749-3148 (6897)
Invested
$71.72
Value
$130.1
PnL
+$58.39
Record
50%
3845-3861 (7706)
Both legs:
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$146.36
Value
$139.5
PnL
-$6.86
Record
53%
1080-957 (2037)
Invested
$33.62
Value
$72.77
PnL
+$39.15
Record
60%
2597-1705 (4302)
ohioism<$100Invested
$34.38
Value
$54.3
PnL
+$19.92
Record
48%
962-1040 (2002)
Invested
$18.01
Value
$32.98
PnL
+$14.97
Record
48%
575-634 (1209)
Invested
$19.17
Value
$40.57
PnL
+$21.4
Record
55%
650-530 (1180)
G-Penis-Monster<$100Invested
$16.22
Value
$16.45
PnL
+$0.23
Record
44%
945-1197 (2142)
Invested
$9.99
Value
$12.64
PnL
+$2.65
Record
49%
3432-3549 (6981)
Invested
$9.2
Value
—
PnL
+$0.94
Record
58%
1948-1427 (3375)
Invested
$337.76
Value
—
PnL
-$337.76
Record
37%
435-728 (1163)
Invested
$0.05
Value
—
PnL
-$0.05
Record
38%
687-1125 (1812)
Chat
Market Info
Traders in this Market
hoodquant
Down — $1.2K
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
Down — $1.1K
CrouchPredictions
Down — $613.86
almach
Down — $375.31
Hcrystallash
Down — $278
mo-money
Down — $259.63
stepahead
Down — $238.93
bosona
ARBArbitrage — excluded
Polkadot-Frog
Down — $139.5
0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e
Down — $72.77