Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET

13 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold Down (76%) · Down at 100¢ · $6K held · ended Nov 11

Up<1¢Down>99¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 76%

Total Value

$6.1K

Combined PnL

$1.0K

Smart Money Entry

76.2¢ → 100¢

+31% since entry · 13 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

13 of 17 top traders (76%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down13 traders

Total Value$6.1K

Total Shares6,126

Combined PnL+$1.1K

Up4 traders

Total Value$3.33

Total Shares555

Combined PnL-$75.17

Down — 76%Up — 24%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

13 traders

Top 2 hold 50%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

76% of non-arb traders are on Down. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 50% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpDown 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrUp 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Down 76% · 17

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UN uninformedfloww	Downavg 73.9¢	$1.8K	$2.4K	+$617.63	49% 706-726 (1432)
HO hoodquant	Downavg 99¢	$638.88	$641.49	+$2.61	98% 1837-39 (1876)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Downavg 83.7¢	$466.39	$479.17	+$12.78	50% 1263-1254 (2517)
CR CrouchPredictions	Downavg 60.5¢	$263.4	$425.42	+$162.02	46% 495-586 (1081)
AL almach	Downavg 80.6¢	$347.5	$349.01	+$1.51	46% 613-725 (1338)
BO bosona	Downavg 74.8¢	$271.32	$327.79	+$56.47	50% 3845-3861 (7706)
MO mo-money	Downavg 44.1¢	$176.32	$327.45	+$151.14	45% 619-745 (1364)
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710	Downavg 95¢	$285	$298.2	+$13.2	37% 435-728 (1163)
HC Hcrystallash	Downavg 65.3¢	$273.52	$287.04	+$14.83	57% 4377-3250 (7627)
ST stepahead	Downavg 72.3¢	$247.06	$259.3	+$12.24	54% 3749-3148 (6897)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e	Downavg 82¢	$125.69	$152.36	+$26.67	60% 2597-1705 (4302)
Polkadot-Frog	Downavg 85.7¢	$139.65	$93.01	-$0.04	53% 1080-957 (2037)
0X 0x954b91DD68ECA3aA4EA603ECeA83C01E8539C0e0-1783400656972<$100	Downavg 83¢	$43.5	$52.1	+$8.6	35% 176-329 (505)
RL RLWGCTR<$100	Upavg 15¢	$75	$3	-$72	67% 1659-813 (2472)
ohioismCTR<$100	Upavg 26.4¢	$6.6	$0.15	-$6.45	48% 962-1040 (2002)
TH TheImpasseCTR<$100	Upavg 8¢	$2	$0.15	-$1.85	— 2-13 (15)
BY ByteBadger92CTR<$100	Upavg 10¢	$5.7	$0.03	+$5.13	58% 1948-1427 (3375)

uninformedfloww

Down

Invested

$1,790.59

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$617.63

Record

49%

706-726 (1432)

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$638.88

Value

$641.49

PnL

+$2.61

Record

98%

1837-39 (1876)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down

Invested

$466.39

Value

$479.17

PnL

+$12.78

Record

50%

1263-1254 (2517)

CrouchPredictions

Down

Invested

$263.4

Value

$425.42

PnL

+$162.02

Record

46%

495-586 (1081)

almach

Down

Invested

$347.5

Value

$349.01

PnL

+$1.51

Record

46%

613-725 (1338)

bosona

Down

Invested

$271.32

Value

$327.79

PnL

+$56.47

Record

50%

3845-3861 (7706)

mo-money

Down

Invested

$176.32

Value

$327.45

PnL

+$151.14

Record

45%

619-745 (1364)

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710

Down

Invested

$285

Value

$298.2

PnL

+$13.2

Record

37%

435-728 (1163)

Hcrystallash

Down

Invested

$273.52

Value

$287.04

PnL

+$14.83

Record

57%

4377-3250 (7627)

stepahead

Down

Invested

$247.06

Value

$259.3

PnL

+$12.24

Record

54%

3749-3148 (6897)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e

Down

Invested

$125.69

Value

$152.36

PnL

+$26.67

Record

60%

2597-1705 (4302)

Polkadot-Frog

Down

Invested

$139.65

Value

$93.01

PnL

-$0.04

Record

53%

1080-957 (2037)

0x954b91DD68ECA3aA4EA603ECeA83C01E8539C0e0-1783400656972<$100

Down

Invested

$43.5

Value

$52.1

PnL

+$8.6

Record

35%

176-329 (505)

RLWGCTR<$100

Invested

$75

Value

PnL

-$72

Record

67%

1659-813 (2472)

ohioismCTR<$100

Invested

$6.6

Value

$0.15

PnL

-$6.45

Record

48%

962-1040 (2002)

TheImpasseCTR<$100

Invested

Value

$0.15

PnL

-$1.85

Record

—

2-13 (15)

ByteBadger92CTR<$100

Invested

$5.7

Value

$0.03

PnL

+$5.13

Record

58%

1948-1427 (3375)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Down

13 of 17 top traders (76%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

13 traders

Top 2 hold 50%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

76% of non-arb traders are on Down. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 50% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpDown 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrUp 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Down 76% · 17

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.