Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET

14 of 20 top Polymarket traders hold Down (70%) · Down at 100¢ · $9K held · ends Nov 11

Up<1¢Down>99¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 70%

Total Value

$9.4K

Combined PnL

-$114.8

Smart Money Entry

80.4¢ → 100¢

+24% since entry · 14 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

14 of 20 top traders (70%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down14 traders

Total Value$9.2K

Total Shares9,440

Combined PnL+$141.48

Up6 traders

Total Value$148.28

Total Shares1,343

Combined PnL-$256.29

Down — 70%Up — 30%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

13 traders

Top 2 hold 49%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

72% of non-arb traders are on Down. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 49% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpDown 100% · 4

Aligned

ctrDown 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Down 72% · 18

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Downavg 63.7¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	-$29.45	50% 1247-1236 (2483)
HO hoodquant	Downavg 99¢	$1.6K	$1.7K	+$15.74	98% 1814-38 (1852)
HC Hcrystallash	Downavg 93.3¢	$1.6K	$1.4K	-$221.34	57% 4366-3247 (7613)
UN uninformedfloww	Downavg 44.7¢	$472	$1.1K	+$583.2	49% 683-704 (1387)
MO mo-money	Downavg 94¢	$1.1K	$925.12	-$137.73	45% 611-735 (1346)
CR CrouchPredictions	Downavg 90.1¢	$861.52	$774.8	-$86.73	46% 485-580 (1065)
BO bosona	Downavg 94.9¢	$510.21	$497.93	-$12.28	50% 3834-3852 (7686)
AL almach	Downavg 93¢	$550.72	$478.75	-$71.97	46% 606-715 (1321)
Polkadot-Frog	Downavg 57¢	$182.42	$210.01	+$27.59	53% 1061-944 (2005)
PB PBot-5	Downavg 46¢	$71	$143.54	+$72.54	47% 563-628 (1191)
ST stepaheadCTR	Upavg 41.1¢	$127.85	$110.16	-$17.69	54% 3739-3142 (6881)
AS asdaefef	Downavg 64.6¢	$110.77	$89.62	-$21.15	66% 1742-899 (2641)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR	Upavg 45¢	$176.22	$27.41	-$148.81	48% 937-1035 (1972)
AS asdcaxz<$100	Downavg 46¢	$12.8	$25.87	+$13.08	49% 3410-3533 (6943)
BoneOhio<$100	Downavg 27¢	$6.75	$23.25	+$16.5	74% 712-248 (960)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Downavg 74¢	$20.52	$13.99	-$6.53	61% 1209-787 (1996)
DR drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100	Upavg 56.8¢	$56.65	$5.57	-$12.18	61% 1965-1241 (3206)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Upavg 47.5¢	$27.45	$4.05	-$23.41	55% 641-522 (1163)
BY ByteBadger92CTR<$100	Upavg 36.3¢	$11.5	$0.74	+$0.19	58% 1912-1406 (3318)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100	Upavg 7.8¢	$54.75	$0.35	-$54.4	60% 2590-1698 (4288)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down

Invested

$1,979.56

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$29.45

Record

50%

1247-1236 (2483)

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$1,640.43

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$15.74

Record

98%

1814-38 (1852)

Hcrystallash

Down

Invested

$1,612.2

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$221.34

Record

57%

4366-3247 (7613)

uninformedfloww

Down

Invested

$472

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$583.2

Record

49%

683-704 (1387)

mo-money

Down

Invested

$1,062.85

Value

$925.12

PnL

-$137.73

Record

45%

611-735 (1346)

CrouchPredictions

Down

Invested

$861.52

Value

$774.8

PnL

-$86.73

Record

46%

485-580 (1065)

bosona

Down

Invested

$510.21

Value

$497.93

PnL

-$12.28

Record

50%

3834-3852 (7686)

almach

Down

Invested

$550.72

Value

$478.75

PnL

-$71.97

Record

46%

606-715 (1321)

Polkadot-Frog

Down

Invested

$182.42

Value

$210.01

PnL

+$27.59

Record

53%

1061-944 (2005)

PBot-5

Down

Invested

$71

Value

$143.54

PnL

+$72.54

Record

47%

563-628 (1191)

stepaheadCTR

Invested

$127.85

Value

$110.16

PnL

-$17.69

Record

54%

3739-3142 (6881)

asdaefef

Down

Invested

$110.77

Value

$89.62

PnL

-$21.15

Record

66%

1742-899 (2641)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR

Invested

$176.22

Value

$27.41

PnL

-$148.81

Record

48%

937-1035 (1972)

asdcaxz<$100

Down

Invested

$12.8

Value

$25.87

PnL

+$13.08

Record

49%

3410-3533 (6943)

BoneOhio<$100

Down

Invested

$6.75

Value

$23.25

PnL

+$16.5

Record

74%

712-248 (960)

asidjasiodja<$100

Down

Invested

$20.52

Value

$13.99

PnL

-$6.53

Record

61%

1209-787 (1996)

drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100

Invested

$56.65

Value

$5.57

PnL

-$12.18

Record

61%

1965-1241 (3206)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Invested

$27.45

Value

$4.05

PnL

-$23.41

Record

55%

641-522 (1163)

ByteBadger92CTR<$100

Invested

$11.5

Value

$0.74

PnL

+$0.19

Record

58%

1912-1406 (3318)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100

Invested

$54.75

Value

$0.35

PnL

-$54.4

Record

60%

2590-1698 (4288)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Down

14 of 20 top traders (70%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

13 traders

Top 2 hold 49%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

72% of non-arb traders are on Down. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 49% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpDown 100% · 4

Aligned

ctrDown 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Down 72% · 18

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.