Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET
Resolved Down. 81% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
16
Down 80%
1 arb excluded
$3.1K
-$51.44
Smart Money Signal
13 of 16 top traders (81%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO hoodquant | Downavg 98.3¢ | $982.59 | $1.0K | +$17.41 | 98% 1784-38 (1822) |
HC Hcrystallash | Downavg 89.9¢ | $832.83 | $780.62 | -$49.47 | 57% 4356-3245 (7601) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Downavg 62.9¢ | $556.27 | $522.19 | -$34.08 | 50% 1234-1231 (2465) |
CR CrouchPredictionsARB<$100 | Upavg 25.5¢ | $234.92 | $199.57 | -$35.35 | 45% 476-573 (1049) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 47.3¢ | $94.46 | $199.57 | +$105.11 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 25.5¢ | $140.46 | — | -$140.46 | |
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e | Downavg 80.4¢ | $146.26 | $182 | +$35.74 | 60% 2586-1691 (4277) |
ST stepahead | Downavg 63.9¢ | $120.37 | $116.14 | -$4.24 | 54% 3732-3133 (6865) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Downavg 73.3¢ | $118.53 | $98.5 | +$6.7 | 53% 1052-936 (1988) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 67.8¢ | $44.04 | $47.02 | +$10.78 | 66% 1722-886 (2608) |
0X 0x50f7<$100 | Downavg 99.9¢ | $44.77 | $44.81 | +$0.04 | 46% 575-662 (1237) |
BL blue.birds<$100 | Downavg 59.2¢ | $29.39 | $44.43 | +$15.04 | 52% 3696-3476 (7172) |
BO bosona<$100 | Downavg 78¢ | $10.64 | $13.64 | +$3 | 50% 3824-3843 (7667) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100 | Upavg 46¢ | $39.93 | — | -$39.93 | 47% 921-1024 (1945) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Downavg 87¢ | $8.85 | $10.17 | +$1.32 | 61% 1192-776 (1968) |
AS asdcaxz<$100 | Downavg 95¢ | $8.45 | $8.89 | +$0.44 | 49% 3395-3511 (6906) |
BY ByteBadger92CTR<$100 | Upavg 42.9¢ | $9.24 | — | +$0.76 | 58% 1881-1385 (3266) |
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100 | Upavg 57¢ | $3.14 | — | -$3.14 | 49% 679-696 (1375) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 56.9¢ | $60.09 | $0.52 | -$11.82 | 61% 1940-1220 (3160) |
Invested
$982.59
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$17.41
Record
98%
1784-38 (1822)
Invested
$832.83
Value
$780.62
PnL
-$49.47
Record
57%
4356-3245 (7601)
Invested
$556.27
Value
$522.19
PnL
-$34.08
Record
50%
1234-1231 (2465)
Invested
$234.92
Value
$199.57
PnL
-$35.35
Record
45%
476-573 (1049)
Both legs:
Invested
$146.26
Value
$182
PnL
+$35.74
Record
60%
2586-1691 (4277)
Invested
$120.37
Value
$116.14
PnL
-$4.24
Record
54%
3732-3133 (6865)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$118.53
Value
$98.5
PnL
+$6.7
Record
53%
1052-936 (1988)
Invested
$44.04
Value
$47.02
PnL
+$10.78
Record
66%
1722-886 (2608)
Invested
$44.77
Value
$44.81
PnL
+$0.04
Record
46%
575-662 (1237)
Invested
$29.39
Value
$44.43
PnL
+$15.04
Record
52%
3696-3476 (7172)
Invested
$10.64
Value
$13.64
PnL
+$3
Record
50%
3824-3843 (7667)
Invested
$39.93
Value
—
PnL
-$39.93
Record
47%
921-1024 (1945)
Invested
$8.85
Value
$10.17
PnL
+$1.32
Record
61%
1192-776 (1968)
Invested
$8.45
Value
$8.89
PnL
+$0.44
Record
49%
3395-3511 (6906)
Invested
$9.24
Value
—
PnL
+$0.76
Record
58%
1881-1385 (3266)
Invested
$3.14
Value
—
PnL
-$3.14
Record
49%
679-696 (1375)
Invested
$60.09
Value
$0.52
PnL
-$11.82
Record
61%
1940-1220 (3160)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
hoodquant
Down — $1.0K
Hcrystallash
Down — $780.62
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
Down — $522.19
CrouchPredictions
ARBArbitrage — excluded
0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e
Down — $182
stepahead
Down — $116.14
Polkadot-Frog
Down — $98.5
asdaefef
Down — $47.02
0x50f7
Down — $44.81
blue.birds
Down — $44.43