Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET

16 of 22 top Polymarket traders hold Down (73%) · Down at 100¢ · $9K held · ends Nov 11

Up<1¢Down>99¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 73%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$9.4K

Combined PnL

$703.99

Smart Money Entry

75.3¢ → 99.5¢

+32% since entry · 16 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

16 of 22 top traders (73%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up1%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down16 traders

Total Value$8.6K

Total Shares8,673

Combined PnL+$860.16

Up6 traders

Total Value$183.71

Total Shares2,023

Combined PnL-$156.17

Down — 73%Up — 27%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 60%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

63% of non-arb traders are on Down. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 60% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpUp 100% · 3

Diverging

ctrDown 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Down 63% · 16

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Downavg 62.3¢	$2.6K	$2.8K	+$149.57	50% 1217-1216 (2433)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e	Downavg 86.8¢	$1.4K	$1.6K	+$201.94	60% 2577-1686 (4263)
CR CrouchPredictions	Downavg 68.8¢	$1.1K	$1.4K	+$301.96	45% 469-566 (1035)
HC Hcrystallash	Downavg 86.4¢	$1.1K	$1.3K	+$132.85	57% 4347-3241 (7588)
HO hoodquant	Downavg 98.5¢	$921.18	$930.24	+$9.05	98% 1763-37 (1800)
ST stepahead	Downavg 59.3¢	$313.46	$332.38	+$18.92	54% 3724-3126 (6850)
AL almachARB<$100	Upavg 31¢	$272.82	$273.61	+$0.8	46% 586-697 (1283)
└ Up leg	Upavg 31¢	$208.04	$137.58	-$70.47
└ Down leg	Downavg 37.9¢	$64.77	$136.03	+$71.26
MO mo-moneyARB<$100	Upavg 31¢	$243.31	$253.07	+$9.76	45% 592-714 (1306)
└ Down leg	Downavg 41.8¢	$74.27	$141.29	+$67.02
└ Up leg	Upavg 31¢	$169.04	$111.78	-$57.26
RL RLWGCTR	Upavg 14.5¢	$132.6	$114.37	-$18.22	67% 1651-806 (2457)
BO bosonaARB<$100	Upavg 10.8¢	$66.59	$97.08	+$30.49	50% 3815-3834 (7649)
└ Down leg	Downavg 33¢	$24.11	$67.58	+$43.47
└ Up leg	Upavg 10.8¢	$42.48	$29.5	-$12.98
ohioism<$100	Downavg 76.1¢	$57.1	$74.63	+$17.53	48% 920-1002 (1922)
0X 0x954b91DD68ECA3aA4EA603ECeA83C01E8539C0e0-1783400656972CTR	Upavg 14.3¢	$232.5	$56.39	-$42.44	35% 172-326 (498)
BL blue.birds<$100	Downavg 72¢	$37.24	$51.48	+$14.24	52% 3683-3453 (7136)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 68.8¢	$45.65	$44.08	+$0.89	66% 1693-878 (2571)
wowitsamazing<$100	Downavg 69.8¢	$26.17	$37.31	+$11.14	45% 81-101 (182)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 65¢	$22.75	$34.83	+$12.08	61% 1916-1201 (3117)
PB PBot-5<$100	Downavg 85¢	$25.5	$29.85	+$4.35	47% 548-611 (1159)
38 38791873984189<$100	Downavg 49¢	$43.89	$27.38	-$16.51	48% 1381-1515 (2896)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100	Upavg 63.6¢	$5.72	$6.66	+$0.94	44% 899-1148 (2047)
Atomforge<$100	Downavg 72¢	$3.9	$5.39	+$1.49	20% 188-733 (921)
AS asidjasiodjaCTR<$100	Upavg 70¢	$3.5	$3.7	+$0.2	60% 1171-770 (1941)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100	Downavg 50¢	$5.5	$2.86	-$2.64	47% 906-1010 (1916)
BY ByteBadger92<$100	Downavg 42.5¢	$10.8	$2.6	+$3.3	58% 1853-1357 (3210)
AD adururuCTR<$100	Upavg 14¢	$65.63	$2.34	-$63.28	5% 14-269 (283)
AS asdcaxzCTR<$100	Upavg 70¢	$33.6	$0.24	-$33.36	49% 3380-3493 (6873)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down

Invested

$2,605.53

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$149.57

Record

50%

1217-1216 (2433)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e

Down

Invested

$1,374.98

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$201.94

Record

60%

2577-1686 (4263)

CrouchPredictions

Down

Invested

$1,102.34

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$301.96

Record

45%

469-566 (1035)

Hcrystallash

Down

Invested

$1,141.9

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$132.85

Record

57%

4347-3241 (7588)

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$921.18

Value

$930.24

PnL

+$9.05

Record

98%

1763-37 (1800)

stepahead

Down

Invested

$313.46

Value

$332.38

PnL

+$18.92

Record

54%

3724-3126 (6850)

almachARB<$100

Invested

$272.82

Value

$273.61

PnL

+$0.8

Record

46%

586-697 (1283)

Both legs:

Up$208.0431¢-$70.47

Down$64.7737.9¢+$71.26

mo-moneyARB<$100

Invested

$243.31

Value

$253.07

PnL

+$9.76

Record

45%

592-714 (1306)

Both legs:

Down$74.2741.8¢+$67.02

Up$169.0431¢-$57.26

RLWGCTR

Invested

$132.6

Value

$114.37

PnL

-$18.22

Record

67%

1651-806 (2457)

bosonaARB<$100

Invested

$66.59

Value

$97.08

PnL

+$30.49

Record

50%

3815-3834 (7649)

Both legs:

Invested

$57.1

Value

$74.63

PnL

+$17.53

Record

48%

920-1002 (1922)

0x954b91DD68ECA3aA4EA603ECeA83C01E8539C0e0-1783400656972CTR

Invested

$232.5

Value

$56.39

PnL

-$42.44

Record

35%

172-326 (498)

blue.birds<$100

Down

Invested

$37.24

Value

$51.48

PnL

+$14.24

Record

52%

3683-3453 (7136)

asdaefef<$100

Down

Invested

$45.65

Value

$44.08

PnL

+$0.89

Record

66%

1693-878 (2571)

wowitsamazing<$100

Down

Invested

$26.17

Value

$37.31

PnL

+$11.14

Record

45%

81-101 (182)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Down

Invested

$22.75

Value

$34.83

PnL

+$12.08

Record

61%

1916-1201 (3117)

PBot-5<$100

Down

Invested

$25.5

Value

$29.85

PnL

+$4.35

Record

47%

548-611 (1159)

38791873984189<$100

Down

Invested

$43.89

Value

$27.38

PnL

-$16.51

Record

48%

1381-1515 (2896)

G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100

Invested

$5.72

Value

$6.66

PnL

+$0.94

Record

44%

899-1148 (2047)

Atomforge<$100

Down

Invested

$3.9

Value

$5.39

PnL

+$1.49

Record

20%

188-733 (921)

asidjasiodjaCTR<$100

Invested

$3.5

Value

$3.7

PnL

+$0.2

Record

60%

1171-770 (1941)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100

Down

Invested

$5.5

Value

$2.86

PnL

-$2.64

Record

47%

906-1010 (1916)

ByteBadger92<$100

Down

Invested

$10.8

Value

$2.6

PnL

+$3.3

Record

58%

1853-1357 (3210)

adururuCTR<$100

Invested

$65.63

Value

$2.34

PnL

-$63.28

Record

14-269 (283)

asdcaxzCTR<$100

Invested

$33.6

Value

$0.24

PnL

-$33.36

Record

49%

3380-3493 (6873)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Down

16 of 22 top traders (73%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 60%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

63% of non-arb traders are on Down. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 60% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpUp 100% · 3

Diverging

ctrDown 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Down 63% · 16

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.