Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET

15 of 22 top Polymarket traders hold Down (68%) · Down at 100¢ · $7K held · ended Nov 11

Up<1¢Down>99¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 68%

Total Value

$6.6K

Combined PnL

$57.17

Smart Money Entry

93.7¢ → 100¢

+7% since entry · 15 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

15 of 22 top traders (68%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down15 traders

Total Value$6.5K

Total Shares6,506

Combined PnL+$248.25

Up7 traders

Total Value$140.81

Total Shares1,652

Combined PnL-$191.08

Down — 68%Up — 32%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 66%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

56% of non-arb traders are on Down. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 66% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpDown 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrUp 60% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Down 56% · 16

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO hoodquant	Downavg 97.9¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	+$34.33	98% 1594-33 (1627)
BoneOhio	Downavg 99¢	$1.2K	$1.3K	+$12.48	74% 622-215 (837)
CR CrouchPredictions	Downavg 85.4¢	$908.22	$1.0K	+$100.39	45% 426-520 (946)
Polkadot-Frog	Downavg 89.6¢	$659.97	$675.78	+$15.88	53% 938-848 (1786)
AL almach	Downavg 94.9¢	$480	$500	+$20	45% 526-642 (1168)
MO mo-money	Downavg 94.9¢	$477.05	$497.72	+$20.67	45% 534-658 (1192)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Downavg 94.2¢	$352.07	$365.9	+$13.83	51% 1054-1033 (2087)
BO bosona	Downavg 95.5¢	$260.62	$264.67	+$4.06	50% 3755-3780 (7535)
HC HcrystallashCTR	Upavg 21.3¢	$179.76	$132.6	-$47.16	57% 4281-3209 (7490)
ST stepahead	Downavg 69¢	$110.96	$112.44	+$1.47	54% 3668-3086 (6754)
0X 0x954b91DD68ECA3aA4EA603ECeA83C01E8539C0e0-1783400656972<$100	Downavg 97.6¢	$74	$72.62	-$1.38	33% 157-322 (479)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 78.8¢	$57.12	$32.44	+$11.34	62% 1746-1091 (2837)
ohioism<$100	Downavg 77¢	$20.14	$24.76	+$4.62	48% 838-904 (1742)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 62.1¢	$11.14	$17.94	+$6.8	65% 1531-815 (2346)
PB PBot-5<$100	Downavg 80¢	$12	$14.1	+$2.1	47% 485-549 (1034)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Downavg 62¢	$3.2	$4.85	+$1.65	60% 1062-712 (1774)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100	Upavg 50¢	$75	$4.5	-$70.5	46% 809-946 (1755)
BL blue.birdsCTR<$100	Upavg 34¢	$9.86	$1.74	-$8.12	52% 3572-3348 (6920)
TH TheImpasseCTR<$100	Upavg 8¢	$2	$1.5	-$0.5	— 2-11 (13)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100	Upavg 2.8¢	$13.37	$0.24	-$13.13	61% 2536-1645 (4181)
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100	Upavg 4.7¢	$14.04	$0.15	-$13.89	37% 374-624 (998)
SH Shimi1234CTR<$100	Upavg 22.3¢	$37.86	$0.08	-$37.78	— 1-13 (14)

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$1,608.84

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$34.33

Record

98%

1594-33 (1627)

BoneOhio

Down

Invested

$1,238.39

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$12.48

Record

74%

622-215 (837)

CrouchPredictions

Down

Invested

$908.22

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$100.39

Record

45%

426-520 (946)

Polkadot-Frog

Down

Invested

$659.97

Value

$675.78

PnL

+$15.88

Record

53%

938-848 (1786)

almach

Down

Invested

$480

Value

$500

PnL

+$20

Record

45%

526-642 (1168)

mo-money

Down

Invested

$477.05

Value

$497.72

PnL

+$20.67

Record

45%

534-658 (1192)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down

Invested

$352.07

Value

$365.9

PnL

+$13.83

Record

51%

1054-1033 (2087)

bosona

Down

Invested

$260.62

Value

$264.67

PnL

+$4.06

Record

50%

3755-3780 (7535)

HcrystallashCTR

Invested

$179.76

Value

$132.6

PnL

-$47.16

Record

57%

4281-3209 (7490)

stepahead

Down

Invested

$110.96

Value

$112.44

PnL

+$1.47

Record

54%

3668-3086 (6754)

0x954b91DD68ECA3aA4EA603ECeA83C01E8539C0e0-1783400656972<$100

Down

Invested

$74

Value

$72.62

PnL

-$1.38

Record

33%

157-322 (479)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Down

Invested

$57.12

Value

$32.44

PnL

+$11.34

Record

62%

1746-1091 (2837)

ohioism<$100

Down

Invested

$20.14

Value

$24.76

PnL

+$4.62

Record

48%

838-904 (1742)

asdaefef<$100

Down

Invested

$11.14

Value

$17.94

PnL

+$6.8

Record

65%

1531-815 (2346)

PBot-5<$100

Down

Invested

$12

Value

$14.1

PnL

+$2.1

Record

47%

485-549 (1034)

asidjasiodja<$100

Down

Invested

$3.2

Value

$4.85

PnL

+$1.65

Record

60%

1062-712 (1774)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100

Invested

$75

Value

$4.5

PnL

-$70.5

Record

46%

809-946 (1755)

blue.birdsCTR<$100

Invested

$9.86

Value

$1.74

PnL

-$8.12

Record

52%

3572-3348 (6920)

TheImpasseCTR<$100

Invested

Value

$1.5

PnL

-$0.5

Record

—

2-11 (13)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100

Invested

$13.37

Value

$0.24

PnL

-$13.13

Record

61%

2536-1645 (4181)

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100

Invested

$14.04

Value

$0.15

PnL

-$13.89

Record

37%

374-624 (998)

Shimi1234CTR<$100

Invested

$37.86

Value

$0.08

PnL

-$37.78

Record

—

1-13 (14)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Down

15 of 22 top traders (68%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 66%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

56% of non-arb traders are on Down. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 66% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpDown 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrUp 60% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Down 56% · 16

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.