Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET

16 of 25 top Polymarket traders hold Up (64%) · Up at 100¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 11

Up>99¢Down<1¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

Up 64%

Total Value

$5.5K

Combined PnL

-$627.39

Smart Money Entry

76.1¢ → 100¢

+31% since entry · 16 traders

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

16 of 25 top traders (64%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up16 traders

Total Value$4.8K

Total Shares4,832

Combined PnL-$384.1

Down9 traders

Total Value$702.52

Total Shares2,008

Combined PnL-$243.29

Up — 64%Down — 36%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Upavg 75.3¢	$1.7K	$1.5K	-$202.89	51% 1009-957 (1966)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e	Upavg 88.1¢	$563.56	$639.42	+$75.86	61% 2518-1634 (4152)
MO mo-money	Upavg 93.7¢	$734.77	$509.17	-$225.6	45% 515-642 (1157)
ST stepahead	Upavg 59.9¢	$492.89	$504.04	+$11.16	54% 3652-3070 (6722)
BO bosona	Upavg 53¢	$456.96	$442.36	-$14.6	50% 3738-3764 (7502)
CR CrouchPredictionsCTR	Downavg 45.2¢	$538.27	$430.23	-$102.73	45% 412-502 (914)
AL almach	Upavg 96.4¢	$531.61	$350.55	-$181.06	45% 507-626 (1133)
HC Hcrystallash	Upavg 54.2¢	$224.2	$339.39	+$115.19	57% 4261-3201 (7462)
Polkadot-FrogCTR	Downavg 55.8¢	$268.34	$245.23	-$7.75	53% 908-821 (1729)
0X 0x50f7	Upavg 99.9¢	$206.96	$207.11	+$0.14	46% 487-576 (1063)
G-Penis-Monster<$100	Upavg 60.4¢	$55.37	$84.98	+$35.48	44% 798-998 (1796)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Upavg 73.8¢	$82.35	$66.02	+$7.39	61% 1683-1060 (2743)
0X 0x954b91DD68ECA3aA4EA603ECeA83C01E8539C0e0-1783400656972<$100	Upavg 96.7¢	$48.5	$50.13	+$1.63	33% 156-317 (473)
wowitsamazing<$100	Upavg 54.6¢	$39	$36.08	-$2.92	44% 71-92 (163)
AS asdaefef<$100	Upavg 79.6¢	$36.27	$30.91	-$5.36	65% 1481-789 (2270)
AS asdcaxz<$100	Upavg 88.9¢	$22.7	$22.24	-$0.46	49% 3233-3339 (6572)
BL blue.birdsCTR<$100	Downavg 66¢	$19.8	$21.75	+$1.95	52% 3542-3305 (6847)
AN antsaslyku<$100	Upavg 61¢	$10	$11.63	+$1.63	39% 586-930 (1516)
Atomforge<$100	Upavg 94¢	$4.9	$5.21	+$0.31	19% 169-724 (893)
BY ByteBadger92CTR<$100	Downavg 56.4¢	$9.36	$3.39	+$0.53	58% 1605-1176 (2781)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Downavg 49¢	$1.4	$1.42	+$0.01	48% 1286-1384 (2670)
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR	Downavg 13¢	$117	$0.45	-$116.55	38% 369-603 (972)
ohioismCTR<$100	Downavg 10.9¢	$10.81	$0.05	-$10.76	48% 807-866 (1673)
AS asidjasiodjaCTR<$100	Downavg 22.5¢	$3.1	$0.01	-$3.09	60% 1032-684 (1716)
PB PBot-5CTR<$100	Downavg 49¢	$4.9	$0.01	-$4.9	47% 473-529 (1002)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Invested

$1,696.21

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$202.89

Record

51%

1009-957 (1966)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e

Invested

$563.56

Value

$639.42

PnL

+$75.86

Record

61%

2518-1634 (4152)

mo-money

Invested

$734.77

Value

$509.17

PnL

-$225.6

Record

45%

515-642 (1157)

stepahead

Invested

$492.89

Value

$504.04

PnL

+$11.16

Record

54%

3652-3070 (6722)

bosona

Invested

$456.96

Value

$442.36

PnL

-$14.6

Record

50%

3738-3764 (7502)

CrouchPredictionsCTR

Down

Invested

$538.27

Value

$430.23

PnL

-$102.73

Record

45%

412-502 (914)

almach

Invested

$531.61

Value

$350.55

PnL

-$181.06

Record

45%

507-626 (1133)

Hcrystallash

Invested

$224.2

Value

$339.39

PnL

+$115.19

Record

57%

4261-3201 (7462)

Polkadot-FrogCTR

Down

Invested

$268.34

Value

$245.23

PnL

-$7.75

Record

53%

908-821 (1729)

0x50f7

Invested

$206.96

Value

$207.11

PnL

+$0.14

Record

46%

487-576 (1063)

G-Penis-Monster<$100

Invested

$55.37

Value

$84.98

PnL

+$35.48

Record

44%

798-998 (1796)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Invested

$82.35

Value

$66.02

PnL

+$7.39

Record

61%

1683-1060 (2743)

0x954b91DD68ECA3aA4EA603ECeA83C01E8539C0e0-1783400656972<$100

Invested

$48.5

Value

$50.13

PnL

+$1.63

Record

33%

156-317 (473)

wowitsamazing<$100

Invested

$39

Value

$36.08

PnL

-$2.92

Record

44%

71-92 (163)

asdaefef<$100

Invested

$36.27

Value

$30.91

PnL

-$5.36

Record

65%

1481-789 (2270)

asdcaxz<$100

Invested

$22.7

Value

$22.24

PnL

-$0.46

Record

49%

3233-3339 (6572)

blue.birdsCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$19.8

Value

$21.75

PnL

+$1.95

Record

52%

3542-3305 (6847)

antsaslyku<$100

Invested

$10

Value

$11.63

PnL

+$1.63

Record

39%

586-930 (1516)

Atomforge<$100

Invested

$4.9

Value

$5.21

PnL

+$0.31

Record

19%

169-724 (893)

ByteBadger92CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$9.36

Value

$3.39

PnL

+$0.53

Record

58%

1605-1176 (2781)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$1.4

Value

$1.42

PnL

+$0.01

Record

48%

1286-1384 (2670)

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR

Down

Invested

$117

Value

$0.45

PnL

-$116.55

Record

38%

369-603 (972)

ohioismCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$10.81

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$10.76

Record

48%

807-866 (1673)

asidjasiodjaCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$3.1

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$3.09

Record

60%

1032-684 (1716)

PBot-5CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$4.9

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$4.9

Record

47%

473-529 (1002)

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

16 of 25 top traders (64%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.