Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET
Resolved Down. 65% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
23
Down 64%
1 arb excluded
$2.9K
-$485.53
Smart Money Signal
15 of 23 top traders (65%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Downavg 74.5¢ | $1.0K | $1.1K | +$110.06 | 51% 1009-957 (1966) |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 98.8¢ | $385.16 | $389.98 | +$4.82 | 98% 1544-32 (1576) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Downavg 92.1¢ | $383.24 | $376.3 | -$6.94 | 45% 412-502 (914) |
HC HcrystallashARB<$100 | Downavg 64.6¢ | $208.33 | $222.31 | +$13.98 | 57% 4261-3201 (7462) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 64.6¢ | $143.55 | $222.31 | +$78.76 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 16.3¢ | $64.79 | — | -$64.79 | |
BO bosona | Downavg 94¢ | $178.04 | $189.4 | +$11.36 | 50% 3738-3764 (7502) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Downavg 82.4¢ | $143.11 | $153.99 | +$10.88 | 53% 908-821 (1729) |
ST stepahead | Downavg 72.1¢ | $136.73 | $123.75 | -$12.98 | 54% 3652-3070 (6722) |
0X 0x954b91DD68ECA3aA4EA603ECeA83C01E8539C0e0-1783400656972 | Downavg 90.6¢ | $180.75 | $110.3 | -$7.78 | 33% 156-317 (473) |
AL almachCTR | Upavg 31¢ | $278.05 | — | -$278.05 | 45% 507-626 (1133) |
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100 | Downavg 62.7¢ | $76.11 | $77 | +$29.02 | 61% 2518-1634 (4152) |
MO mo-moneyCTR | Upavg 31¢ | $243.9 | — | -$243.9 | 45% 515-642 (1157) |
AS asdcaxz<$100 | Downavg 89¢ | $46.48 | $50 | +$3.52 | 49% 3233-3339 (6572) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 72.8¢ | $30.74 | $34.4 | +$4.65 | 65% 1481-789 (2270) |
 G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100 | Upavg 29¢ | $28.48 | — | -$28.48 | 44% 798-998 (1796) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 78.3¢ | $33.02 | $20 | -$4 | 61% 1683-1060 (2743) |
 BoneOhio<$100 | Downavg 86¢ | $14.74 | $17.14 | +$2.4 | 75% 606-205 (811) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Downavg 94¢ | $15.34 | $15.06 | -$0.28 | 60% 1032-684 (1716) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Upavg 49¢ | $13.79 | — | -$13.79 | 48% 1286-1384 (2670) |
 ohioismCTR<$100 | Upavg 39¢ | $12.05 | — | -$12.05 | 48% 807-866 (1673) |
PB PBot-5<$100 | Downavg 51¢ | $1.55 | $3.03 | +$1.48 | 47% 473-529 (1002) |
BL blue.birdsCTR<$100 | Upavg 4¢ | $1.2 | — | -$1.2 | 52% 3542-3305 (6847) |
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100 | Upavg 7.8¢ | $23.37 | — | -$23.37 | 38% 369-603 (972) |
 wowitsamazingCTR<$100 | Upavg 44¢ | $33 | — | -$33 | 44% 71-92 (163) |
BY ByteBadger92<$100 | Downavg 61¢ | $8.5 | — | +$2.1 | 58% 1605-1176 (2781) |
Invested
$1,024.5
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$110.06
Record
51%
1009-957 (1966)
Invested
$385.16
Value
$389.98
PnL
+$4.82
Record
98%
1544-32 (1576)
Invested
$383.24
Value
$376.3
PnL
-$6.94
Record
45%
412-502 (914)
Invested
$208.33
Value
$222.31
PnL
+$13.98
Record
57%
4261-3201 (7462)
Both legs:
Invested
$178.04
Value
$189.4
PnL
+$11.36
Record
50%
3738-3764 (7502)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$143.11
Value
$153.99
PnL
+$10.88
Record
53%
908-821 (1729)
Invested
$136.73
Value
$123.75
PnL
-$12.98
Record
54%
3652-3070 (6722)
Invested
$180.75
Value
$110.3
PnL
-$7.78
Record
33%
156-317 (473)
Invested
$278.05
Value
—
PnL
-$278.05
Record
45%
507-626 (1133)
Invested
$76.11
Value
$77
PnL
+$29.02
Record
61%
2518-1634 (4152)
Invested
$243.9
Value
—
PnL
-$243.9
Record
45%
515-642 (1157)
Invested
$46.48
Value
$50
PnL
+$3.52
Record
49%
3233-3339 (6572)
Invested
$30.74
Value
$34.4
PnL
+$4.65
Record
65%
1481-789 (2270)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100Invested
$28.48
Value
—
PnL
-$28.48
Record
44%
798-998 (1796)
Invested
$33.02
Value
$20
PnL
-$4
Record
61%
1683-1060 (2743)
BoneOhio<$100Invested
$14.74
Value
$17.14
PnL
+$2.4
Record
75%
606-205 (811)
Invested
$15.34
Value
$15.06
PnL
-$0.28
Record
60%
1032-684 (1716)
Invested
$13.79
Value
—
PnL
-$13.79
Record
48%
1286-1384 (2670)
ohioismCTR<$100Invested
$12.05
Value
—
PnL
-$12.05
Record
48%
807-866 (1673)
Invested
$1.55
Value
$3.03
PnL
+$1.48
Record
47%
473-529 (1002)
Invested
$1.2
Value
—
PnL
-$1.2
Record
52%
3542-3305 (6847)
Invested
$23.37
Value
—
PnL
-$23.37
Record
38%
369-603 (972)
wowitsamazingCTR<$100Invested
$33
Value
—
PnL
-$33
Record
44%
71-92 (163)
Invested
$8.5
Value
—
PnL
+$2.1
Record
58%
1605-1176 (2781)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
Down — $1.1K
hoodquant
Down — $389.98
CrouchPredictions
Down — $376.3
Hcrystallash
ARBArbitrage — excluded
bosona
Down — $189.4
Polkadot-Frog
Down — $153.99
stepahead
Down — $123.75
0x954b91DD68ECA3aA4EA603ECeA83C01E8539C0e0-1783400656972
Down — $110.3
almach
CTRUp — $0
0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e
Down — $77