Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET

11 of 22 top Polymarket traders hold Up (50%) · Up at 96¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 11

Up96¢Down4¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

Up 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.7K

Combined PnL

$190.25

Smart Money Entry

84.1¢ → 96.2¢

+14% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

NeutralUp at 96%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 22 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up96%

Down4%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up11 traders

Total Value$3.4K

Total Shares3,481

Combined PnL+$381

Down11 traders

Total Value$343.2

Total Shares2,210

Combined PnL-$190.75

Up — 50%Down — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e	Upavg 85.1¢	$2.5K	$2.8K	+$337.93	61% 2482-1593 (4075)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100	Upavg 87.8¢	$825.12	$952.76	+$127.64	51% 933-914 (1847)
└ Up leg	Upavg 87.8¢	$587.04	$589.24	+$2.2
└ Down leg	Downavg 7.8¢	$238.07	$363.51	+$125.44
HC Hcrystallash	Upavg 65.5¢	$222.05	$211.26	+$15.01	57% 4243-3185 (7428)
Polkadot-Frog	Upavg 92.8¢	$178.63	$163.39	-$15.24	53% 887-786 (1673)
AL almachCTR<$100	Downavg 23¢	$92	$98	+$6	45% 490-607 (1097)
CR CrouchPredictionsCTR	Downavg 23.3¢	$158	$84.74	-$67.1	46% 403-481 (884)
HO hoodquant<$100	Upavg 98¢	$52.92	$53.19	+$0.27	98% 1499-31 (1530)
BO bosonaCTR	Downavg 19.1¢	$101.18	$51.25	-$49.93	50% 3720-3750 (7470)
ST stepaheadCTR<$100	Downavg 22.6¢	$58.03	$48.57	-$9.46	54% 3640-3052 (6692)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Upavg 81.4¢	$59.7	$45.07	+$5.4	62% 1634-1017 (2651)
MO mo-moneyCTR<$100	Downavg 20.1¢	$84.53	$40.52	-$44.01	44% 496-623 (1119)
AS asdaefef<$100	Upavg 98¢	$30.83	$28.94	-$1.89	65% 1431-763 (2194)
PB PBot-5<$100	Upavg 85.2¢	$17.33	$18.01	+$0.68	48% 468-506 (974)
38 38791873984189<$100	Upavg 48.2¢	$15.79	$16.54	+$0.75	48% 1257-1350 (2607)
BL blue.birds<$100	Upavg 93¢	$23.55	$15.67	-$7.88	52% 3510-3269 (6779)
ohioismCTR<$100	Downavg 17.9¢	$22.43	$11.06	-$11.36	48% 779-832 (1611)
GH ghorrock<$100	Upavg 48¢	$5.08	$5.34	+$0.26	54% 539-462 (1001)
BY ByteBadger92CTR<$100	Downavg 33¢	$3.3	$3.35	+$0.05	58% 1531-1106 (2637)
AS asdcaxzCTR<$100	Downavg 12¢	$6	$2.28	-$3.73	49% 3193-3306 (6499)
AS asidjasiodjaCTR<$100	Downavg 18.5¢	$1.25	$1.86	+$0.61	60% 1005-663 (1668)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100	Downavg 34¢	$11.9	$1.14	-$10.76	45% 772-956 (1728)
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710	Upavg 82.8¢	$248.28	$0.98	+$45.71	—
RL RLWGCTR<$100	Downavg 15¢	$1.5	$0.45	-$1.05	67% 1634-787 (2421)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e

Invested

$2,473.6

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$337.93

Record

61%

2482-1593 (4075)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100

Invested

$825.12

Value

$952.76

PnL

+$127.64

Record

51%

933-914 (1847)

Both legs:

Up$587.0487.8¢+$2.2

Down$238.077.8¢+$125.44

Hcrystallash

Invested

$222.05

Value

$211.26

PnL

+$15.01

Record

57%

4243-3185 (7428)

Polkadot-Frog

Invested

$178.63

Value

$163.39

PnL

-$15.24

Record

53%

887-786 (1673)

almachCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$92

Value

$98

PnL

+$6

Record

45%

490-607 (1097)

CrouchPredictionsCTR

Down

Invested

$158

Value

$84.74

PnL

-$67.1

Record

46%

403-481 (884)

hoodquant<$100

Invested

$52.92

Value

$53.19

PnL

+$0.27

Record

98%

1499-31 (1530)

bosonaCTR

Down

Invested

$101.18

Value

$51.25

PnL

-$49.93

Record

50%

3720-3750 (7470)

stepaheadCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$58.03

Value

$48.57

PnL

-$9.46

Record

54%

3640-3052 (6692)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Invested

$59.7

Value

$45.07

PnL

+$5.4

Record

62%

1634-1017 (2651)

mo-moneyCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$84.53

Value

$40.52

PnL

-$44.01

Record

44%

496-623 (1119)

asdaefef<$100

Invested

$30.83

Value

$28.94

PnL

-$1.89

Record

65%

1431-763 (2194)

PBot-5<$100

Invested

$17.33

Value

$18.01

PnL

+$0.68

Record

48%

468-506 (974)

38791873984189<$100

Invested

$15.79

Value

$16.54

PnL

+$0.75

Record

48%

1257-1350 (2607)

blue.birds<$100

Invested

$23.55

Value

$15.67

PnL

-$7.88

Record

52%

3510-3269 (6779)

ohioismCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$22.43

Value

$11.06

PnL

-$11.36

Record

48%

779-832 (1611)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$5.08

Value

$5.34

PnL

+$0.26

Record

54%

539-462 (1001)

ByteBadger92CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$3.3

Value

$3.35

PnL

+$0.05

Record

58%

1531-1106 (2637)

asdcaxzCTR<$100

Down

Invested

Value

$2.28

PnL

-$3.73

Record

49%

3193-3306 (6499)

asidjasiodjaCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$1.25

Value

$1.86

PnL

+$0.61

Record

60%

1005-663 (1668)

G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$11.9

Value

$1.14

PnL

-$10.76

Record

45%

772-956 (1728)

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710

Invested

$248.28

Value

$0.98

PnL

+$45.71

Record

—

RLWGCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$1.5

Value

$0.45

PnL

-$1.05

Record

67%

1634-787 (2421)

Research grade

NeutralUp at 96%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 22 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.4%

96.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.68

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.