Bitcoin Up or Down - November 10, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET

14 of 20 top Polymarket traders hold Down (70%) · Down at 100¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 11

Up<1¢Down>99¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 70%

Total Value

$4.7K

Combined PnL

-$282.87

Smart Money Entry

90.3¢ → 100¢

+11% since entry · 14 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

14 of 20 top traders (70%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down14 traders

Total Value$4.5K

Total Shares4,584

Combined PnL-$147.04

Up6 traders

Total Value$124.89

Total Shares3,692

Combined PnL-$135.83

Down — 70%Up — 30%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO hoodquant	Downavg 99¢	$1.9K	$1.9K	+$17.91	98% 1408-30 (1438)
CR CrouchPredictions	Downavg 95.2¢	$734.73	$696.85	-$37.88	45% 361-442 (803)
BO bosona	Downavg 92.6¢	$891.17	$693.39	-$197.79	50% 3677-3707 (7384)
ST stepahead	Downavg 87.3¢	$527.75	$466.91	-$60.83	54% 3595-3014 (6609)
AL almach	Downavg 71¢	$173.95	$244.88	+$70.93	44% 444-567 (1011)
MO mo-money	Downavg 70¢	$182.89	$203.58	+$28.2	44% 451-577 (1028)
HC Hcrystallash	Downavg 57.3¢	$157.34	$121.25	-$6.96	57% 4197-3150 (7347)
PB PBot-5<$100	Downavg 85.8¢	$66.21	$58.79	-$7.42	47% 416-463 (879)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 66.1¢	$55.12	$55.79	+$2.86	65% 1307-699 (2006)
AS asdcaxz<$100	Downavg 52¢	$26	$49.98	+$23.98	49% 3098-3207 (6305)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100	Upavg 30.8¢	$49.35	$44	-$5.35	44% 697-874 (1571)
BoneOhioCTR	Upavg 35.2¢	$114.57	$34.18	-$80.39	74% 517-177 (694)
ohioismCTR<$100	Upavg 38¢	$46.4	$33.27	-$13.12	48% 708-758 (1466)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 34.7¢	$20.7	$29.99	+$13.99	62% 1494-928 (2422)
BL blue.birds<$100	Downavg 57¢	$17.1	$29.99	+$12.89	52% 3416-3175 (6591)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Downavg 77.9¢	$17.79	$17.86	+$0.07	60% 908-618 (1526)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100	Downavg 60¢	$17.08	$10.1	-$6.97	51% 877-838 (1715)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Upavg 49¢	$9.36	$9.65	+$0.29	48% 1027-1110 (2137)
BY ByteBadger92CTR<$100	Upavg 47.8¢	$11.11	$2.25	+$2.16	58% 1397-994 (2391)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100	Upavg 1.3¢	$40.95	$1.54	-$39.41	62% 2389-1477 (3866)

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$1,852.21

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$17.91

Record

98%

1408-30 (1438)

CrouchPredictions

Down

Invested

$734.73

Value

$696.85

PnL

-$37.88

Record

45%

361-442 (803)

bosona

Down

Invested

$891.17

Value

$693.39

PnL

-$197.79

Record

50%

3677-3707 (7384)

stepahead

Down

Invested

$527.75

Value

$466.91

PnL

-$60.83

Record

54%

3595-3014 (6609)

almach

Down

Invested

$173.95

Value

$244.88

PnL

+$70.93

Record

44%

444-567 (1011)

mo-money

Down

Invested

$182.89

Value

$203.58

PnL

+$28.2

Record

44%

451-577 (1028)

Hcrystallash

Down

Invested

$157.34

Value

$121.25

PnL

-$6.96

Record

57%

4197-3150 (7347)

PBot-5<$100

Down

Invested

$66.21

Value

$58.79

PnL

-$7.42

Record

47%

416-463 (879)

asdaefef<$100

Down

Invested

$55.12

Value

$55.79

PnL

+$2.86

Record

65%

1307-699 (2006)

asdcaxz<$100

Down

Invested

$26

Value

$49.98

PnL

+$23.98

Record

49%

3098-3207 (6305)

G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100

Invested

$49.35

Value

$44

PnL

-$5.35

Record

44%

697-874 (1571)

BoneOhioCTR

Invested

$114.57

Value

$34.18

PnL

-$80.39

Record

74%

517-177 (694)

ohioismCTR<$100

Invested

$46.4

Value

$33.27

PnL

-$13.12

Record

48%

708-758 (1466)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Down

Invested

$20.7

Value

$29.99

PnL

+$13.99

Record

62%

1494-928 (2422)

blue.birds<$100

Down

Invested

$17.1

Value

$29.99

PnL

+$12.89

Record

52%

3416-3175 (6591)

asidjasiodja<$100

Down

Invested

$17.79

Value

$17.86

PnL

+$0.07

Record

60%

908-618 (1526)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100

Down

Invested

$17.08

Value

$10.1

PnL

-$6.97

Record

51%

877-838 (1715)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Invested

$9.36

Value

$9.65

PnL

+$0.29

Record

48%

1027-1110 (2137)

ByteBadger92CTR<$100

Invested

$11.11

Value

$2.25

PnL

+$2.16

Record

58%

1397-994 (2391)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100

Invested

$40.95

Value

$1.54

PnL

-$39.41

Record

62%

2389-1477 (3866)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Down

14 of 20 top traders (70%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.