Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 10, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET

Resolved Up. 73% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 73%

8 arb excluded

Total Value

$12.6K

Combined PnL

$-1.9K

Smart Money Signal

16 of 22 top traders (73%)8 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up16 traders

Total Value$8.9K

Total Shares8,940

Combined PnL+$456.53

Down6 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares7,048

Combined PnL$-2.3K

Up — 73%Down — 27%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BoneOhio	Upavg 99¢	$2.8K	$2.8K	+$28.14	74% 506-174 (680)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e	Upavg 58.4¢	$2.8K	$1.8K	+$323.69	62% 2365-1458 (3823)
ST stepahead	Upavg 55¢	$1.6K	$1.7K	+$126.44	54% 3586-3008 (6594)
RL RLWGCTR	Downavg 32.1¢	$1.6K	—	$-1.6K	68% 1604-751 (2355)
HO hoodquant	Upavg 99¢	$907.77	$917	+$9.23	98% 1388-30 (1418)
CR CrouchPredictionsARB<$100	Upavg 61¢	$827.46	$972.2	+$144.74	45% 355-435 (790)
└ Up leg	Upavg 61¢	$592.76	$972.2	+$379.44
└ Down leg	Downavg 40¢	$234.7	—	-$234.7
0X 0x954b91DD68ECA3aA4EA603ECeA83C01E8539C0e0-1783400656972ARB<$100	Upavg 48.9¢	$743.02	$1.2K	+$456.95	31% 142-311 (453)
└ Up leg	Upavg 48.9¢	$586.85	$1.2K	+$613.12
└ Down leg	Downavg 52.5¢	$156.17	—	-$156.17
0X 0xd33d0d185cd215162c86cb481cd01acdc7d28489	Upavg 59.3¢	$829.6	$714	-$104.24	62% 26-16 (42)
AtomforgeARB<$100	Downavg 49.4¢	$524.23	$437.39	-$86.84	16% 134-701 (835)
└ Down leg	Downavg 49.4¢	$299.88	—	-$299.88
└ Up leg	Upavg 51.3¢	$224.35	$437.39	+$213.04
AL almachARB<$100	Upavg 51.9¢	$504.55	$499.99	-$4.56	44% 435-558 (993)
└ Up leg	Upavg 51.9¢	$259.55	$499.99	+$240.44
└ Down leg	Downavg 49¢	$245	—	-$245
HC Hcrystallash	Upavg 60.7¢	$466.91	$494.81	+$27.9	57% 4188-3146 (7334)
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100	Upavg 62.8¢	$354.99	$347.93	-$7.06	52% 800-726 (1526)
└ Up leg	Upavg 62.8¢	$218.33	$347.93	+$129.6
└ Down leg	Downavg 39.5¢	$136.66	—	-$136.66
BL blue.birds	Upavg 64.9¢	$210.44	$179.85	-$30.6	52% 3399-3159 (6558)
PL ply-pm4	Upavg 48.7¢	$85.51	$120	+$34.49	9% 30-308 (338)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100	Downavg 49¢	$81.38	—	-$81.38	45% 665-826 (1491)
MO mo-moneyARB<$100	Downavg 49¢	$78.45	$81.71	+$3.26	44% 441-571 (1012)
└ Down leg	Downavg 49¢	$40.05	—	-$40.05
└ Up leg	Upavg 47¢	$38.41	$81.71	+$43.31
PB PBot-5<$100	Upavg 60.4¢	$48.3	$80	+$31.7	48% 412-450 (862)
G-Penis-MonsterARB<$100	Upavg 61.7¢	$70.75	$60	-$10.75	44% 682-863 (1545)
└ Down leg	Downavg 51.9¢	$33.75	—	-$33.75
└ Up leg	Upavg 61.7¢	$37	$60	+$23
AS asdaefef<$100	Upavg 70.8¢	$58.88	$64.62	+$5.74	65% 1284-691 (1975)
BO bosonaARB<$100	Downavg 49¢	$55.17	$57.46	+$2.29	50% 3667-3701 (7368)
└ Down leg	Downavg 49¢	$28.16	—	-$28.16
└ Up leg	Upavg 47¢	$27.01	$57.46	+$30.45
DR drfc4eybh7i8	Upavg 64.2¢	$113.95	$60.2	-$10.12	62% 1469-913 (2382)
AS asdcaxzCTR<$100	Downavg 45¢	$22.5	—	-$22.5	49% 3081-3189 (6270)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Upavg 72.6¢	$7.75	$10.67	+$2.92	59% 895-612 (1507)
BY ByteBadger92<$100	Upavg 51¢	$22.19	$7.29	+$5.09	59% 1376-973 (2349)
GH ghorrock<$100	Upavg 48¢	$5.09	$10.6	+$5.51	54% 401-336 (737)

BoneOhio

Invested

$2,786.14

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$28.14

Record

74%

506-174 (680)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e

Invested

$2,826.12

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$323.69

Record

62%

2365-1458 (3823)

stepahead

Invested

$1,559.2

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$126.44

Record

54%

3586-3008 (6594)

RLWGCTR

Down

Invested

$1,645.59

Value

—

PnL

$-1.6K

Record

68%

1604-751 (2355)

hoodquant

Invested

$907.77

Value

$917

PnL

+$9.23

Record

98%

1388-30 (1418)

CrouchPredictionsARB<$100

Invested

$827.46

Value

$972.2

PnL

+$144.74

Record

45%

355-435 (790)

Both legs:

Up$592.7661¢+$379.44

Down$234.740¢-$234.7

0x954b91DD68ECA3aA4EA603ECeA83C01E8539C0e0-1783400656972ARB<$100

Invested

$743.02

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$456.95

Record

31%

142-311 (453)

Both legs:

Up$586.8548.9¢+$613.12

Down$156.1752.5¢-$156.17

0xd33d0d185cd215162c86cb481cd01acdc7d28489

Invested

$829.6

Value

$714

PnL

-$104.24

Record

62%

26-16 (42)

AtomforgeARB<$100

Down

Invested

$524.23

Value

$437.39

PnL

-$86.84

Record

16%

134-701 (835)

Both legs:

Down$299.8849.4¢-$299.88

Up$224.3551.3¢+$213.04

almachARB<$100

Invested

$504.55

Value

$499.99

PnL

-$4.56

Record

44%

435-558 (993)

Both legs:

Up$259.5551.9¢+$240.44

Down$24549¢-$245

Hcrystallash

Invested

$466.91

Value

$494.81

PnL

+$27.9

Record

57%

4188-3146 (7334)

Polkadot-FrogARB<$100

Invested

$354.99

Value

$347.93

PnL

-$7.06

Record

52%

800-726 (1526)

Both legs:

Up$218.3362.8¢+$129.6

Down$136.6639.5¢-$136.66

blue.birds

Invested

$210.44

Value

$179.85

PnL

-$30.6

Record

52%

3399-3159 (6558)

ply-pm4

Invested

$85.51

Value

$120

PnL

+$34.49

Record

30-308 (338)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$81.38

Value

—

PnL

-$81.38

Record

45%

665-826 (1491)

mo-moneyARB<$100

Down

Invested

$78.45

Value

$81.71

PnL

+$3.26

Record

44%

441-571 (1012)

Both legs:

Down$40.0549¢-$40.05

Up$38.4147¢+$43.31

PBot-5<$100

Invested

$48.3

Value

$80

PnL

+$31.7

Record

48%

412-450 (862)

G-Penis-MonsterARB<$100

Invested

$70.75

Value

$60

PnL

-$10.75

Record

44%

682-863 (1545)

Both legs:

Down$33.7551.9¢-$33.75

Up$3761.7¢+$23

asdaefef<$100

Invested

$58.88

Value

$64.62

PnL

+$5.74

Record

65%

1284-691 (1975)

bosonaARB<$100

Down

Invested

$55.17

Value

$57.46

PnL

+$2.29

Record

50%

3667-3701 (7368)

Both legs:

Down$28.1649¢-$28.16

Up$27.0147¢+$30.45

drfc4eybh7i8

Invested

$113.95

Value

$60.2

PnL

-$10.12

Record

62%

1469-913 (2382)

asdcaxzCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$22.5

Value

—

PnL

-$22.5

Record

49%

3081-3189 (6270)

asidjasiodja<$100

Invested

$7.75

Value

$10.67

PnL

+$2.92

Record

59%

895-612 (1507)

ByteBadger92<$100

Invested

$22.19

Value

$7.29

PnL

+$5.09

Record

59%

1376-973 (2349)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$5.09

Value

$10.6

PnL

+$5.51

Record

54%

401-336 (737)

Smart Money Signal

16 of 22 top traders (73%)8 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0x686e95bb...2caae3

Slug

btc-updown-15m-1794368700

Traders in this Market

BoneOhio

Up — $2.8K

+$28.14

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e

Up — $1.8K

+$323.69

stepahead

Up — $1.7K

+$126.44

RLWG

CTR

Down — $0

$-1.6K

hoodquant

Up — $917

+$9.23

CrouchPredictions

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$144.74

0x954b91DD68ECA3aA4EA603ECeA83C01E8539C0e0-1783400656972

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$456.95

0xd33d0d185cd215162c86cb481cd01acdc7d28489

Up — $714

Atomforge

Arbitrage — excluded

almach

Arbitrage — excluded