Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 10, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET
Resolved Down. 57% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
23
Down 57%
4 arb excluded
$6.4K
$-2.6K
Smart Money Signal
13 of 23 top traders (57%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ST stepahead | Downavg 50.2¢ | $1.3K | $1.4K | +$41.76 | 54% 3586-3008 (6594) |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 98.1¢ | $1.3K | $1.3K | +$25.12 | 98% 1388-30 (1418) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR | Upavg 48.1¢ | $1.1K | — | $-1.1K | 45% 665-826 (1491) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Downavg 48.8¢ | $847.08 | $1.1K | +$238.33 | 45% 355-435 (790) |
0X 0x954b91DD68ECA3aA4EA603ECeA83C01E8539C0e0-1783400656972ARB<$100 | Downavg 49.9¢ | $749.96 | $1.1K | +$383.35 | 31% 142-311 (453) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 49.9¢ | $565.46 | $1.1K | +$567.85 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 51¢ | $184.5 | — | -$184.5 | |
HC HcrystallashCTR | Upavg 49¢ | $591.73 | — | -$551.49 | 57% 4188-3146 (7334) |
MO mo-moneyARB<$100 | Upavg 50¢ | $289.72 | $291.81 | +$2.09 | 44% 441-571 (1012) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $145.91 | — | -$145.91 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 49.3¢ | $143.82 | $291.81 | +$147.99 | |
BO bosonaARB<$100 | Upavg 50¢ | $253.51 | $258.11 | +$4.6 | 50% 3667-3701 (7368) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $129.06 | — | -$129.06 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 48.2¢ | $124.46 | $258.11 | +$133.65 | |
 Polkadot-Frog | Downavg 60.3¢ | $230.46 | $222.34 | -$8.12 | 52% 800-726 (1526) |
AL almach | Downavg 51¢ | $149.51 | $209.3 | +$59.79 | 44% 435-558 (993) |
BL blue.birds | Downavg 66.8¢ | $120.17 | $120 | -$0.17 | 52% 3399-3159 (6558) |
PB PBot-5 | Downavg 71¢ | $103.09 | $100 | +$5.06 | 48% 412-450 (862) |
 G-Penis-MonsterARB<$100 | Downavg 53.6¢ | $100.66 | $100 | -$0.66 | 44% 682-863 (1545) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 53.6¢ | $53.61 | $100 | +$46.39 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 58.8¢ | $47.05 | — | -$47.05 | |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Upavg 48.9¢ | $63.4 | — | -$63.4 | 48% 969-1052 (2021) |
AS asdcaxz<$100 | Downavg 79¢ | $71.9 | $55 | -$16.9 | 49% 3081-3189 (6270) |
 ohioismCTR<$100 | Upavg 57.6¢ | $83.95 | — | -$81.4 | 48% 697-745 (1442) |
PL ply-pm4<$100 | Downavg 51.6¢ | $43.19 | $59.29 | +$16.1 | 9% 30-308 (338) |
 wowitsamazingCTR<$100 | Upavg 49¢ | $36.75 | — | -$36.75 | 45% 68-82 (150) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 48.2¢ | $28.63 | $43.85 | +$19.92 | 62% 1469-913 (2382) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 45.9¢ | $11.71 | $18.76 | +$7.05 | 65% 1284-691 (1975) |
BY ByteBadger92<$100 | Downavg 51¢ | $31.05 | $7.45 | +$4.17 | 59% 1376-973 (2349) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Upavg 48¢ | $5.09 | — | -$5.09 | 54% 401-336 (737) |
RL RLWGCTR<$100 | Upavg 42¢ | $2.1 | — | -$2.1 | 68% 1604-751 (2355) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Downavg 42¢ | $2.3 | $5.48 | +$3.18 | 59% 895-612 (1507) |
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR | Upavg 46.1¢ | $1.1K | — | $-1.1K | 62% 2365-1458 (3823) |
Invested
$1,347.06
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$41.76
Record
54%
3586-3008 (6594)
Invested
$1,285.86
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$25.12
Record
98%
1388-30 (1418)
Invested
$1,074.74
Value
—
PnL
$-1.1K
Record
45%
665-826 (1491)
Invested
$847.08
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$238.33
Record
45%
355-435 (790)
Invested
$749.96
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$383.35
Record
31%
142-311 (453)
Both legs:
Invested
$591.73
Value
—
PnL
-$551.49
Record
57%
4188-3146 (7334)
Invested
$289.72
Value
$291.81
PnL
+$2.09
Record
44%
441-571 (1012)
Both legs:
Invested
$253.51
Value
$258.11
PnL
+$4.6
Record
50%
3667-3701 (7368)
Both legs:
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$230.46
Value
$222.34
PnL
-$8.12
Record
52%
800-726 (1526)
Invested
$149.51
Value
$209.3
PnL
+$59.79
Record
44%
435-558 (993)
Invested
$120.17
Value
$120
PnL
-$0.17
Record
52%
3399-3159 (6558)
Invested
$103.09
Value
$100
PnL
+$5.06
Record
48%
412-450 (862)
G-Penis-MonsterARB<$100Invested
$100.66
Value
$100
PnL
-$0.66
Record
44%
682-863 (1545)
Both legs:
Invested
$63.4
Value
—
PnL
-$63.4
Record
48%
969-1052 (2021)
Invested
$71.9
Value
$55
PnL
-$16.9
Record
49%
3081-3189 (6270)
ohioismCTR<$100Invested
$83.95
Value
—
PnL
-$81.4
Record
48%
697-745 (1442)
Invested
$43.19
Value
$59.29
PnL
+$16.1
Record
9%
30-308 (338)
wowitsamazingCTR<$100Invested
$36.75
Value
—
PnL
-$36.75
Record
45%
68-82 (150)
Invested
$28.63
Value
$43.85
PnL
+$19.92
Record
62%
1469-913 (2382)
Invested
$11.71
Value
$18.76
PnL
+$7.05
Record
65%
1284-691 (1975)
Invested
$31.05
Value
$7.45
PnL
+$4.17
Record
59%
1376-973 (2349)
Invested
$5.09
Value
—
PnL
-$5.09
Record
54%
401-336 (737)
Invested
$2.1
Value
—
PnL
-$2.1
Record
68%
1604-751 (2355)
Invested
$2.3
Value
$5.48
PnL
+$3.18
Record
59%
895-612 (1507)
Invested
$1,132.15
Value
—
PnL
$-1.1K
Record
62%
2365-1458 (3823)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
stepahead
Down — $1.4K
hoodquant
Down — $1.3K
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
CTRUp — $0
CrouchPredictions
Down — $1.1K
0x954b91DD68ECA3aA4EA603ECeA83C01E8539C0e0-1783400656972
ARBArbitrage — excluded
Hcrystallash
CTRUp — $0
mo-money
ARBArbitrage — excluded
bosona
ARBArbitrage — excluded
Polkadot-Frog
Down — $222.34
almach
Down — $209.3