Bitcoin Up or Down - November 10, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET

15 of 23 top Polymarket traders hold Down (65%) · Down at 98¢ · $8K held · ends Nov 10

Up3¢Down97¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 65%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$7.9K

Combined PnL

$277.67

Smart Money Entry

66.7¢ → 97.5¢

+46% since entry · 15 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

15 of 23 top traders (65%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up3%

Down98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down15 traders

Total Value$7.4K

Total Shares7,737

Combined PnL+$420.45

Up8 traders

Total Value$362

Total Shares1,028

Combined PnL-$142.79

Down — 65%Up — 35%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Downavg 58.2¢	$2.4K	$2.2K	-$255.68	53% 716-640 (1356)
HC Hcrystallash	Downavg 86.4¢	$1.5K	$1.7K	+$178.7	57% 4090-3077 (7167)
CR CrouchPredictions	Downavg 40.2¢	$581.29	$836.44	+$255.15	47% 297-333 (630)
HO hoodquant	Downavg 98.5¢	$726.23	$725.94	-$0.29	98% 1113-24 (1137)
UN uninformedfloww	Downavg 74.2¢	$473.73	$622.11	+$148.38	49% 562-580 (1142)
MO mo-money	Downavg 57.2¢	$531.07	$512.92	-$18.15	42% 340-478 (818)
BO bosona	Downavg 48.9¢	$306.64	$363.43	+$56.79	50% 3566-3609 (7175)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Downavg 49.7¢	$269.2	$268.28	-$0.92	43% 533-713 (1246)
AL almachARB<$100	Downavg 55.4¢	$193.71	$184.1	-$9.61	43% 341-461 (802)
└ Down leg	Downavg 55.4¢	$98.64	$134.54	+$35.9
└ Up leg	Upavg 47¢	$95.06	$49.55	-$45.51
ST stepaheadCTR	Upavg 33.2¢	$166.92	$146.9	-$20.01	54% 3503-2930 (6433)
38 38791873984189CTR	Upavg 49¢	$104.63	$106.87	+$2.24	48% 859-937 (1796)
Polkadot-FrogCTR	Upavg 64.1¢	$103.59	$71.98	-$21.71	53% 662-577 (1239)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 54.2¢	$46.57	$48.63	+$2.06	65% 1039-555 (1594)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e	Downavg 78.4¢	$152.85	$41.96	+$36.11	62% 2294-1393 (3687)
G-Penis-Monster<$100	Downavg 42.3¢	$28.05	$36.32	+$8.27	44% 550-695 (1245)
ohioism<$100	Downavg 51¢	$20.4	$19.8	-$0.6	48% 559-599 (1158)
BL blue.birdsCTR<$100	Upavg 65¢	$19.5	$16.65	-$2.85	52% 3206-2981 (6187)
0X 0x954b91DD68ECA3aA4EA603ECeA83C01E8539C0e0-1783400656972CTR<$100	Upavg 26.6¢	$94	$8.83	-$85.17	29% 126-305 (431)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Downavg 53¢	$6.95	$7.33	+$0.38	58% 719-528 (1247)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100	Upavg 52¢	$12.7	$5.08	-$2.83	46% 537-642 (1179)
DR drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100	Upavg 8.6¢	$11.12	$4.55	-$6.57	61% 1159-747 (1906)
MayorMamdani<$100	Downavg 41¢	$3.61	$4.36	+$0.75	53% 699-627 (1326)
BY ByteBadger92<$100	Downavg 47¢	$37.59	$3.79	+$9.5	58% 1054-768 (1822)
BoneOhioCTR<$100	Upavg 71¢	$7.02	$1.14	-$5.88	76% 403-129 (532)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down

Invested

$2,416.29

Value

$2.2K

PnL

-$255.68

Record

53%

716-640 (1356)

Hcrystallash

Down

Invested

$1,525.06

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$178.7

Record

57%

4090-3077 (7167)

CrouchPredictions

Down

Invested

$581.29

Value

$836.44

PnL

+$255.15

Record

47%

297-333 (630)

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$726.23

Value

$725.94

PnL

-$0.29

Record

98%

1113-24 (1137)

uninformedfloww

Down

Invested

$473.73

Value

$622.11

PnL

+$148.38

Record

49%

562-580 (1142)

mo-money

Down

Invested

$531.07

Value

$512.92

PnL

-$18.15

Record

42%

340-478 (818)

bosona

Down

Invested

$306.64

Value

$363.43

PnL

+$56.79

Record

50%

3566-3609 (7175)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down

Invested

$269.2

Value

$268.28

PnL

-$0.92

Record

43%

533-713 (1246)

almachARB<$100

Down

Invested

$193.71

Value

$184.1

PnL

-$9.61

Record

43%

341-461 (802)

Both legs:

Down$98.6455.4¢+$35.9

Up$95.0647¢-$45.51

stepaheadCTR

Invested

$166.92

Value

$146.9

PnL

-$20.01

Record

54%

3503-2930 (6433)

38791873984189CTR

Invested

$104.63

Value

$106.87

PnL

+$2.24

Record

48%

859-937 (1796)

Polkadot-FrogCTR

Invested

$103.59

Value

$71.98

PnL

-$21.71

Record

53%

662-577 (1239)

asdaefef<$100

Down

Invested

$46.57

Value

$48.63

PnL

+$2.06

Record

65%

1039-555 (1594)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e

Down

Invested

$152.85

Value

$41.96

PnL

+$36.11

Record

62%

2294-1393 (3687)

G-Penis-Monster<$100

Down

Invested

$28.05

Value

$36.32

PnL

+$8.27

Record

44%

550-695 (1245)

ohioism<$100

Down

Invested

$20.4

Value

$19.8

PnL

-$0.6

Record

48%

559-599 (1158)

blue.birdsCTR<$100

Invested

$19.5

Value

$16.65

PnL

-$2.85

Record

52%

3206-2981 (6187)

0x954b91DD68ECA3aA4EA603ECeA83C01E8539C0e0-1783400656972CTR<$100

Invested

$94

Value

$8.83

PnL

-$85.17

Record

29%

126-305 (431)

asidjasiodja<$100

Down

Invested

$6.95

Value

$7.33

PnL

+$0.38

Record

58%

719-528 (1247)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100

Invested

$12.7

Value

$5.08

PnL

-$2.83

Record

46%

537-642 (1179)

drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100

Invested

$11.12

Value

$4.55

PnL

-$6.57

Record

61%

1159-747 (1906)

MayorMamdani<$100

Down

Invested

$3.61

Value

$4.36

PnL

+$0.75

Record

53%

699-627 (1326)

ByteBadger92<$100

Down

Invested

$37.59

Value

$3.79

PnL

+$9.5

Record

58%

1054-768 (1822)

BoneOhioCTR<$100

Invested

$7.02

Value

$1.14

PnL

-$5.88

Record

76%

403-129 (532)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Down

15 of 23 top traders (65%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.6%

97.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.42

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.